Full tropical update

The full version of the tropical update is as follows:

There are several areas of interest now, Gordon, 94L, 95L, a wave off Africa and a wave approaching the Antilles.

Initial Winds: 70MPH
Pressure: 987MB
Classification: TS

Gordon will track NE and become extratropicial while moving towards the coast of Spain where showers are likely at most.

Initial Probability: 80%*

94L will likely continue to move WNW or W. Following in the shadow of another tropical wave 94L is expected to move north of Hispaniola and Cuba. From there, it could make landfall anywhere from Havana Cuba to Halifax Canada. Depending on where it will make landfall, it could hit at a strength of a weak TS or a strong hurricane. THIS STORM IS A THREAT TO THE US!! Stay tuned for future updates!! 94L has a large well defined circulation but lacks heavy thunderstorms to be a classified TD.

Initial probability: 30%*

95L will likely drift around the NW GOM (Gulf of Mexico) While slowly growing in organization. It could eventually impact the Gulf coast next week.

African Wave:
Initial probability: 20%

This African wave will be moving W while developing at a steady pace. There is high uncertainty with this forecast and THIS STORM COULD ALSO IMPACT THE US IN THE FUTURE!!!

Wave Approaching the Antilles:
Current probability: 0%

The reason I mentioned this Wave is that it is helping 94L develop by leaving a moist environment in its wake. This wave has a small chance of development once it reaches the Western Caribbean.



Tropical Trouble

Just a quick update… more tomorrow. The tropics are on fire tonight as Hurricane Gordon moves into the Azores as it transitions to an extratropical low. Also 94L and 95L are of concern.

GORDON: CAT 1 85mph winds. Will move through the azores weakening as dry air, high shear and cold waters take their toll on him. Should be extratropicial be tomorrow night.

94L: Is a low pressure system roughly 1/2 way between Africa and America. It is likely to develop while moving W at 20 mph. THIS COULD BE A THREAT TO THE US IN A WEEK AND A HALF OR SO. LARGE UNCERTAINTY.

95L: Is a low pressure system in the W GOM. Some weak development is possible as it drifts around the Western GOM.



More climate forecasts; Fall 2012, Winter soon? winter late?

Well following in the shadow of my winter forecast I am coming out with my fall forecast. LAst year was the beast example I could give for “Early snow doesn’t always mean lots of snow” We had historic snows in October and virtually nil in the rest of the season.

Fall 2012: ENSO: Modiki holding steady though a weak El Nino could crop up later on raising temps and precip. MJO: (Madden Julian Oscillation) levels will be more negative than positive so a storm could form fairly easily from virtually nothing. NAO and AO: Weak to moderate negative trend means cooler temps and more precip.Temperatures will be about average for much of the time period so this means, snow likely early but might not accumulate till later.

Forecast for Eastern US for the next year (climate)

So new climate models came out today and here is what to look for for the eastern CONUS.

Winter 2012: Average for most areas. Slightly warmer with slightly more precipitation due to a Modiki type event. This is when there are above average SSTs in the equatorial East Pacific. Then comes the ice-cold Chilean current; underwater. The warm water heats up the air causing it to rise. Thunderstorms form in an area known as the ITCZ or Inter tropical convergence zone where opposing trade winds meet. These thunder storms cause an upwelling of water therefore bringing the cold chilean-current waters up to the surface. causing pools of warm water and cool water to swirl together. So in determining the ENSO (El Nino/Southern oscillation) event of this year because it is taken from averages ( cold + warm in average terms cancels to 0 there fore not El Nino (Warmer) or La Nina (Colder) but instead a modiki year which is very rare) becomes very difficult. Instead there is a different set of rules for a Modiki year.

Photo: current SSTs in the east pacific. Notice the bright reds and swirling pockets of blues.


Forecast: SNOWY and average temps For us on the east coast.


Issued for Coastal VA and surrounding areas
Valid from 200PM EDT – 800PM EDT AUG 15 2012

Severe weather will impact this region today with high winds and large hail. Be prepared for oncoming severe storms.

Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

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