Morning update

What a wild ride this has been in regards to amounts, source of amounts, low placement etc. We now have a low pressure center moving ENE that is located about 150 miles SE of the Cape. Regardless, its associated trough will bring snow. This trough will set up over the region today and sit there not moving until evening. Due to the non norlun nature of this trough (thank goodness!!), I am confident with my amountsthat have been upgraded and are shown below.

snow 2222
Snow Map.
ptype 2
Precipitation type map.

The upgrade in snow totals was due to the trough being slighly stronger than expected. As a result, the snow rates will also be higher than expected leading to reduced visibilities and slick roads.
-Jack

What a change…

What a change over the past few days! First we were looking at the potential for a foot of snow from a powerful ocean storm and now we are looking at 6″ from its wicked inverted trough. Remember that inverted or norlun trough from earlier this winter? They are impossible to predict where they will set up until they actually do set up. Now I am thinking it will set up right near Portland or maybe a little south. Either way, there should be snow breaking our today from “ocean effect” or lake effect snow but over the ocean. Ocean effect snow tends not to be as heavy as lake effect and that is what we will see today.
There is a developing low off the Carolina coast that is moving ENE. This low will skirt too far offshore to have too much of an effect. its norlun or inverted trough however will. This troughs are notoriously impossible to predict as we saw earlier this year. Right now my thoughts are that it will dump a sufficient amount (6″) to many across southern Maine. My snow map is below.
snow111
Snow map.
Check out my other two sites for town by town forecasts for the snow. Those will be updated with the 18z runs tonight. They can be found at the right of my page.
-Jack

Models agree now on only a very minor snow event for many

Models now agree this morning that the comination or phasing of these two storms will occur too far to the south and east to give us much snow. I expect a widespread 4-6″ from an inverted trough. Remember what happened with that last time? We all expected 8-12″ but we got 0. These things are absolutely impossible to predict so confidence is super low. Snow map coming with 12z models midday.
The area of low pressure will develop and move to the ESE today into tonight. It will then rapidly deepen South of the Maritimes. The inverted or norlun trough will hang around behind giving us minimal snow. Check back later for the snow map.
-Jack

Storm update

An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will spawn a secondary low as it moves to the north. This new low will become our next storm system. This storm will then move to the north east spreading bands of snow across the region. There will not be an excessive amount of very cold air avalible so it will be a wet snow and we will have some mixing issues. New models coming in now suggest a little nudge to the SE but they seem to all agree on this matter so confidence is high. I expect 4-8″ across the most of the area with 3-6″ along the coast from portland south and along the midcoast as well as the foothills and mountains. 1-3″ towards Penobscot bay, Augusta, and Farmington. See map below.
snow 3a
Snow map. Areas south of the green line will have mixing issues. Snow map will likely be updated tomorrow morning.
The exact placement and intensity of the low will determine exact amounts.
I’ll be back with another update maybe tonight but cirtenly tomorrow morning. For southern Maine/New Hampshire, check out my other sites for town by town forecasts. Snow forecasts for each town will be posted tomorrow.
-Jack

ANOTHER weekend storm

Im sure this sounds really annoying, but there will be another storm impacting us this weekend. This one will not be too big with accumulations of 6-8″ possibly. There will not be crazy winds or insane snow, but there will be a little more snow on the ground to ski or sled on. It looks to start late saturday and end sometime midday sunday. I will post a snow map tomorrow probably when confidence is higher. Until then, I will update the different pages on my blog as I recieve new data.
-Jack

Light snow as powerful storm moves offshore

We really dodged a bullet here along the Maine coast and all across the north east. A powerful ocean storm will barely miss us bringing just light accumulations rather than a blizzard repeat. Light snow will start tonight and end sunday afternoon with little accumulations. maybe 2-6″ highest amounts down-east. Were on track for a windy one tomorrow as the low undergoes cyclogenisis well southeast of the benchmark. Expect gusty NW winds reaching 30-45mph in many locations. Warm temps return midweek after a chilly start to the week but cold air returns late week. Cold, warm, cold combination should make for some interesting skiing this week…
-Jack

Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

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