TS Gordon has formed before dawn today and is moving toward the Azores. It is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before becoming post tropical. It will then get absorbed (or absorb) a weakening low scooting off Iceland.

Well following in the shadow of my winter forecast I am coming out with my fall forecast. LAst year was the beast example I could give for “Early snow doesn’t always mean lots of snow” We had historic snows in October and virtually nil in the rest of the season.

Fall 2012: ENSO: Modiki holding steady though a weak El Nino could crop up later on raising temps and precip. MJO: (Madden Julian Oscillation) levels will be more negative than positive so a storm could form fairly easily from virtually nothing. NAO and AO: Weak to moderate negative trend means cooler temps and more precip.Temperatures will be about average for much of the time period so this means, snow likely early but might not accumulate till later.