Hello everyone!

Today will feature the return of sunshine for much of the area, though some folks will have to be a bit patient. The inverted trough that brought snow to the area yesterday is drifting lazily southwest as we sit under a region of weak winds aloft. Some snow showers are still showing up on radar over Central NH but they don’t appear strong enough to drop anything more than a coating.

Drier air will slowly filter into the region today on northeasterly winds as that inverted trough keeps sliding southwest. Eventually, we’ll get dry enough for clouds to clear. Satellite imagery suggests that the clearing line is now pushing through Greenville ME though patchy sun is possible farther southwest. By early this afternoon, most spots northeast of Portland should see some sunshine. Everyone should be clear by sunset.

Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts. Clouds return tomorrow ahead of our next system set to arrive on Thursday. Interestingly enough, that system will be backing into the region from the northeast. Not exactly typical for our latitude!

Here’s a little loop showing our next frontal boundary originating in the Central Atlantic today before moving west through Newfoundland and New Brunswick/Nova Scotia tomorrow and eventually arriving here in Maine on Thursday.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature chilly temps and continued unsettled weather as a storm system lingers just off Cape Cod. The first round of precipitation associated with that system has moved well northeast of the area as of 6 AM so most of us are seeing either dry conditions or a very light drizzle. These conditions will remain in place over the next few hours before an upper level disturbance arrives around noon. Once that disturbance gets here, expect showers to develop again over the Maine coast and adjacent parts of the foothills. Showers will initially fall as rain (especially right near the coast) but as cold air surges in from New Brunswick, expect a changeover to snow. Minimal accumulations are expected but up to 1″ is possible where stronger snow showers linger. This band of snow showers will slowly drift southwest this evening, bringing some precipitation into southeastern NH by sunset. High temps will be quite chilly today, ranging from a little below 30 in the north to around 40 in far southwestern NH.

I wanted to end this post with a quick note about last night’s storms. They were, well, unexpected certainly by me and perhaps by a few others too. I took a look through some of the data I analyzed yesterday morning with the benefit of hindsight. Should it have been obvious that thunderstorms would occur? The answer is that based on available forecast model data, it wasn’t entirely obvious. There was a layer of instability forecast between 10,000 feet and 30,000 feet, but it was extremely weak. That type of instability would only support thunderstorms if there was a strong forcing mechanism to push air upwards independent of thunderstorm updrafts. With the storm responsible for producing last night’s precipitation decaying >500 miles to our west, it wasn’t clear that we’d be able to manage such robust upward motion. That said, in retrospect I think I should’ve mentioned the possibility for thunder in southern areas. Hopefully you enjoyed the surprise fireworks, I know I did despite the fact they highlighted a mistake of mine.

Stay home and stay healthy everyone.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the return of unsettled weather as our next storm system approaches from the west. Satellite imagery shows overcast skies across just about the entire region except for a small area near Augusta as of 6 AM. Clouds will finish overspreading the region in short order this morning and will remain in place for the rest of the day.

Precipitation associated with this system will arrive from SW to NE today, beginning a little before noon in SW NH before moving into far W ME around 2-3 PM and northeastern parts of the area by 5-6 PM. A few showers are possible before these times but that’s when the steadier precip should begin. Precipitation will fall as snow in the mountains, a mix of snow and sleet in the western/northern foothills, and rain elsewhere.

Colder air will filter south tonight as a secondary area of low pressure develops off Cape Cod. As a result, parts of the southeastern foothills and interior coastal plain that saw rain for most of today will switch over to sleet, and the NW foothills that saw sleet for most of today will switch over to snow. Even the coastline should get some flakes by tomorrow morning, though they shouldn’t accumulate much.

As far as accumulations go, here’s what the NWS is thinking for the event today/tomorrow. I think this looks pretty good for most spots though I’m not yet convinced that places like Camden and Belfast will pick up >2″. Overall, this won’t be a storm with major impacts and most of us should be staying at home anyways, so the greasy roads tomorrow morning will be far less of a bother than usual.

Temps today will be on the chillier side ranging from 45 near Augusta to 35 in the mountains of NH.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Canadian high pressure will remain in charge of our weather today as our next storm system takes its sweet time developing out in the Plains. As a result, we can expect another gorgeous day of mostly sunny skies and fairly mild temperatures. Look for highs ranging from 45 in the north and along the coastline east of 95/295/south of Route 1 (due to a developing sea breeze) to 55 along much of the coastal plain. A few high clouds will encroach on the region later this afternoon, but otherwise everyone will enjoy sunshine. If you can, definitely take advantage of the beautiful weather to get outside (while keeping your distance from others of course).

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature clearing skies and continued mild temps as a weak area of low pressure moves from the Midcoast into New Brunswick and is gradually replaced by an area of weak high pressure from Quebec. Satellite imagery this morning shows clear skies already in place across most of the area with the exception being in the mountains where NW breezes are supporting a bit of upsloping. Those clouds should gradually dry up this afternoon. Temps will remain on the milder side today, ranging from 35 in the north to 55 along the coast.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature much sunnier skies and modestly warmer temperatures as the coastal storm that grazed the region yesterday departs out to sea and high pressure once again drifts overhead. Another storm system will drift towards the region from the west this afternoon, at which point clouds will once again increase. Enjoy the morning sunshine while it’s here! While the sunshine will boost temps a bit higher than they’ve been in previous days, we’ll still be on the chillier (eastern) side of the high pressure system with light northerly breezes. As a result, temps will remain on the cooler side ranging from 40 in the mountains to 50 in southern NH.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cool temps and calm weather as Canadian high pressure drifts overhead once again. Expect some sunshine this morning especially in northern/eastern areas before clouds move into the area on the north side of another ocean storm developing near North Carolina. That storm will pass far enough to our south that precipitation is not expected, but we will see a period of overcast skies this afternoon. Temps will remain on the cooler side today due to the clouds and gentle northerly breezes between the high to our north and low to our south. Just about everyone should top out within a few degrees of 40 (a little above near Augusta and a little below in the mountains/western NH).

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Last night’s storm came in about as expected, though some spots got a bit more snow than expected. The system responsible for producing the snow is now cruising towards Nova Scotia and as a result, any leftover flurries will quickly taper off. Winds will turn northwesterly as the low departs, though the absence of a strong area of high pressure behind the system means that gusts likely won’t exceed 20 mph. As with any northwest flow situation, the coast will be first to clear out this morning. Abundant sunshine will push temps to around 50 especially along the coast of Maine. Much more snow fell down in southern NH so high temps there may be limited to the mid/upper 40s. The mountains will be the coolest under persistent overcast in the upper 30s.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cool temps and cloudy skies as our next storm system begins to approach from the southwest. Precipitation from this system will arrive in southwestern NH around noon in the form of light snow. Yesterday’s Canadian high pressure has dug in over Nova Scotia this morning and will be providing a constant drip of cool dry air throughout the day. As a result, most snowflakes will be evaporating before they hit the ground during the early afternoon hours.

That will change later in the afternoon as a coastal storm begins to intensify off the North Carolina coast. Bands of steady snow will move into southern NH by 4-5 PM and will become heavy shortly after that. Most spots in western Maine can expect steady snow by 6-7 PM with heavy snow arriving in southern areas by 8-9 PM. While this storm will start off as an all-snow event, areas east of I-95 south of Portland and south of route 1 east of Brunswick (the “immediate coastline”) may mix with or change over to rain later tonight.

Snow will continue through the overnight hours before tapering off early tomorrow morning.

Snow totals will range from around 1″ along the coast and in far northern parts of the mountains to around 10″ in interior southern NH. The greatest forecast uncertainty is, as usual, near the rain/snow line right along the coast. It’s also unclear exactly how far northeast the heavy banding needed to produce >6″ totals will extend.

Either way, the snow that does accumulate will be very heavy and wet due to warm temps right around 31-33F. Be ready for some tough shovelling and some power outages especially where >6″ accumulates. That’s usually a good benchmark for picking out spots where tree limbs will start to break under the weight of the snow. Nicer weather returns tomorrow before another system approaches later in the week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature beautiful early spring weather across the region as a strong area of Canadian high pressure drifts across Northern New England. Expect clear skies area-wide except perhaps for a few cirrus across southwestern NH this evening. Because this airmass has arrived from Canada, temps today will be on the cooler side of what we’d expect this time of year. Highs will range from 25 in the north to 40 in southern NH. Today will be a great day to head outside and enjoy some much-needed fresh air. Remember that going outside for a walk/hike is a perfectly acceptable social distancing activity so long as you keep your distance (>6ft) from others.

-Jack