Hello everyone!

Yesterday was a nice respite from the worst of the deep freeze as temperatures made above zero for most, and even got to double digit readings for some parts of the coast. Today, a storm developing well to our southeast will bring a reinforcing shot of bitter cold, and we’ll be headed back to the brutally low temperatures of a few days ago. Highs will range from -10 in the north and mountains to +5 along the coast.  Most of the area will remain sunny and free of precipitation today, however upsloping NW winds will keep clouds and a few flurries in the mix for the mountains.

This map from the Swiss Super HD model shows wind chills bordering on dangerous this afternoon. Ignore the large swath of null values downwind of Mt. Washington where the model thinks that winds are calm or nearly calm due to the influence of the mountain. Wind chills in the Sebago region will be just as brutal as anywhere else, dropping below -20 for much of the day today.

Bundle up if your NYE plans take you outside tonight, even for a short period of time!

-Jack

Hello everyone!

We remain in the freezer today as an Arctic airmass continues to control our weather. Believe it or not, today will be the warmest day in a while as temperatures make it above zero for all but the mountains. A few areas in SE NH may even manage to make it above 10 degrees, though most areas will once again see highs in the single digits. A storm system will be moving by well to our south today, and will be far enough north to bring us some clouds, especially in southern areas, but too far south for more than a few southern NH flurries. The other impact this system will have on our area involves increasing winds as it departs offshore. While wind gusts of 10-20 mph doesn’t sound like a lot, given how bitter cold temperatures already are, it won’t take much wind to make wind chills very dangerous once again.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Our bone-chilling cold is going nowhere today as NW winds continue to bring us a fresh supply of air directly from the Arctic Circle.

High Definition satellite imagery shows a couple of really neat features that are important to our forecast today. First, we have some clouds filtering into the region from the west. These are associated with a weak disturbance that will bring light snow to parts of the area today. It has hardly any moisture associated with it, but because the air is so cold, we don’t need that much moisture to produce snow. Speaking of cold air, if you look at satellite loops you’ll find that there are some areas of light blue that don’t move. These aren’t persistent areas of low clouds, they’re actually patches of ground so cold the satellite thinks they’re the tops of clouds! Temperatures in these areas are below -30C which is -22F. The darker colors just off the coast represent warmer temperatures (see color scale) associated with ocean waters that are, compared to the rest of the area, quite warm. You can also see ocean effect clouds develop as our Arctic airmass continues to pour SE over the warm ocean waters. Pretty neat stuff!

As for the forecast, that satellite image just about sums it up. It’ll be very cold and we’ll have a fair bit of cloud cover due to that disturbance, which will also be responsible for bringing us some snow. High temps today will actually be a hint warmer than yesterday, ranging from 5 below in the north to 5 above in the south. Winds will die down a little bit today, but dangerous wind chills well below zero will continue for the entire area. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with clouds taking over across much of the area by this afternoon. Snow will break out around midday in New Hampshire and spread east into Maine early in the afternoon. Snow will generally be light, and accumulations are likely to fall in the C-2″ range as there will be barely any moisture associated with the system. Snow will clear out this evening.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Deep winter has arrived a couple of weeks early this year as an Arctic airmass is in complete control of our weather here in Maine. High temperatures will range from -15 in the north to a balmy 0 degrees in the south. NW winds will continue to gust to 30 mph today, resulting in wind chills well below zero for the entire area. Wind Chill Warnings have been issued for the mountains and foothills while Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for the coastal plain. If you’re headed outside, take proper precautions to ensure you stay warm! Outside of the bitter cold, it’ll be a pretty nice day today. Skies will start out mainly sunny, though a few clouds are possible this afternoon as a weak trough slides through aloft. In the mountains, this trough may have just enough moisture for a few flurries, but no meaningful snow is expected.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature bitter cold temperatures, and biting wind chills as Arctic air continues to pour south out of Canada. Today’s winds will add a northerly component that yesterday’s didn’t have. This means two things for our forecast. First, any snow showers or flurries will be limited to the higher terrain. The NW flow means we won’t be able to tap into the lake effect moisture that allows those snow showers to move off the mountains. Second, it means that our already chilly airmass yesterday is only getting colder as there won’t be any modification to the Arctic air from the Great Lakes. High temps today will range from 5 below in the north to 10 above along the coastal plain. Wind chills will drop below -20 for just about everyone this evening, turning the nuisance cold into something dangerous for those not prepared. Skies will be mainly sunny today as the very cold airmass is also a very dry one.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Yesterday’s storm system, like any, was the result of a battle between warm and cold airmasses. Today, the Arctic air has emerged victorious and it’s all quiet on the northern front as the lines have shifted south. For us, that means the start of a long stretch with very cold temperatures. Today, temps will begin steady in the 10’s as daytime heating and cold air advection cancel each other out. As the sun begins to set this afternoon though, the cold air will begin to make its presence known as temps drop into and through the single digits. A gusty NW wind will make these cold temps feel even more bitter than they actually are, and wind chills by this evening will be below zero for the entire area, including the coast, while values head for the -20’s in the mountains.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

With the incoming holiday, this update will bring info on the forecast for both today and tomorrow. The dreams of kids across Maine and New Hampshire are about to come true as a rapidly developing Nor’easter brings a classic New England snowstorm just in time for Christmas morning. More on that in a minute.

Before our storm arrives, we’ll enjoy a day of calm weather today. High pressure is building in between systems, and as a result we’ll see cool temps, dry weather, and at least a few breaks of sun before clouds from the Christmas storm begin to stream in this afternoon. Look for highs around 20 in the mountains and around 30 along the coastline.

Tomorrow is the day that brings truly interesting weather. A Nor’easter will be getting its act together just to our southeast, and as it intensifies, heavy bands of snow will impact the entire region. Winds will also pick up out of the northeast, resulting in blowing and drifting snow.

Swiss Super HD model forecasts show bands of heavy snow moving onshore tomorrow morning as the storm intensifies east of Boston. Snow will fall at rates of 1-3″ per hour in these bands, which will be too much for plows to keep up with. Try not to be on the roads tomorrow morning if at all possible. Dynamics with this system will be strong enough that thundersnow can’t be ruled out along the coastal plain!

The storm will be a quick mover, and snow will taper off to flurries by early in the afternoon.

Here’s how much snow I’m expecting. The jackpot area will be found in the NE part of the region with areas NE of Augusta likely seeing around or a little over a foot of snow from this storm. Amounts will taper off to the southwest. There’s been a strong signal on model guidance for a region of mesoscale subsistence (sinking air) developing across parts of York and Cumberland counties. If this indeed develops, amounts will be lower there. Outside of that area, the immediate midcoast where snow could mix with sleet for a time, and the CT valley, 8-12″ is where we should come in for this event. It will be a fluffy snow due to the cold airmass and excellent snow growth dynamics.

The fluffy snow will be a nice reprieve for those tired of shoveling sloppy sludge, but it will also enhance visibility concerns as winds kick up tomorrow afternoon. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected along the coastline, and these winds will have no problem blowing the fluffy snow around. As a result, expect low visibilities with areas of blizzard conditions tomorrow, even after the snow stops falling. This storm likely won’t meet the technical blizzard criteria, but if you take a look outside or try to drive around, it’ll be hard to tell the difference between this and an official blizzard, which needs to meet strict numerical criteria to be designated as such.

Winds will die down a bit tomorrow night, though gusty NW winds will be a recurring theme as we move into the middle part of the week and a deep Arctic airmass establishes control of the Northeast.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today’s weather focus will be on ice accretion expected to occur as warm air surges north aloft, but gets hung up at the surface. One measure of how well a cold airmass is dug in is what’s happening just offshore, at the buoys that typically escape most of the cold air damming. If the buoys are experiencing the same CAD that onshore locations are, you know the cold airmass is strong and well fortified. This morning at the Isle of Shoals buoy SE of Portsmouth reported a north wind of 5 kts with a temperature of 27.5 degrees. This cold air isn’t going anywhere fast!

Swiss Super HD model forecasts show cold air remaining entrenched through this morning. I think it has a decent handle on the forecast up until around noon, when it begins to warm much of the area above freezing. I think the temperature map will look a lot like the one above for much of the day. Most folks outside of the western slopes of the mountains, the Midcoast, and the NH Seacoast will stay below freezing for most if not all of this afternoon as cold air is notorious for its staying power. This evening, precipitation will end as the storm moves northeast. Cold air will flood south as this process unfolds, with everyone returning below freezing by tomorrow morning.

As the cold air remains locked in at the surface, warm air will be streaming in aloft. This will change any leftover snow showers to freezing rain this morning. Freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation type throughout the day as our very shallow cold air layer hangs on near the surface. Ice accretion of between a quarter and a half inch is expected south of the mountains and away from the midcoast. This is more than enough to make roads slick, and just enough to introduce the threat for power outages, though widespread damage to the power grid is not anticipated.

Freezing rain, coastal rain, and mountain sleet/snow will taper off this evening.

I did a full analysis of this storm and some of the science behind the setup as well as behind freezing rain in general for yesterday morning’s weather.us blog. Check it out!

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cool temps and calm conditions as high pressure builds in overhead. Look for a mix of sun and clouds, with that balance generally shifted in favor of sunshine for most areas. Temps will range from around 15 in the north to around 25 in the south. No precipitation is expected outside of a few morning mountain flurries in weakening NW flow.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature dropping temperatures as a cold front makes its way south. Snow showers and squalls will accompany this front, especially in the mountains. Flurries are possible along the coastal plain, with no accumulation expected. High temps today will be set in the morning hours with cooling conditions expected through this evening. By 6 PM, everyone including the coast should see subfreezing temps. Those cooler temps will be brought in on NW winds which will set up the classic upslope/downslope cloud pattern today. Look for few if any breaks of sunshine in the higher terrain as snow showers continue, while the coastal plain will be hard pressed to find more than a few clouds.

-Jack