Last update on Sandy as it moves through PA

This is my last analysis of Superstorm Sandy as it is now weakening at a steady clip and although it will continue to affect many along the interior Mid-Atlantic area, it is becoming less and less of a threat. Sandy should be done with us by Thursday and impacts from now on should be much less severe.

Sandy has caused damage in the 10’s of billions of dollars according to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground. This will really not do to much to help the economy and will likely set us back quite a bit. This could most definately affect the presidential election.

Sandy is now weakening over Central PA and will continue to spin north and weaken even more as it moves into Canada. Impacts will be wrapping up and the rainfall should slow down considerably as pressures rise and winds fall. We should be completely done with Sandy by Friday.

From now on, I will expirement with making a graphic every Wednesday evening and posting it here. This might work well or it might not. We will see. My first one will be tomorrow evening. Here is one for tonight.

 

 

NYC Feels all that Sandy has to offer

Superstorm Sandy, downgraded last night, moved ashore Monday evening. Winds gusted over 60mph here in Yarmouth and up to 76mph in the Bath area.

The NYC area felt major impacts from surge as water covered the LGA airport and winds gusted well over hurricane force at JFK. Meanwhile, the defenses put in place at the last minute by the MTA were no match for Sandy’s surge and service will be suspended for the remainder of the week as all major lines are flooded according to the MTA. Also there is a stunning video of the Brooklyn Battery tunnel with water pouring in. Cars were bobbing around like rubber duckies in lower Manhattan. FDR drive was underwater at LOW tide so forget about high tide.

The Atlantic City area felt major impacts as well as Sandy roared ashore in Southern NJ. Large chunks of the boardwalk were washed away by Sandy’s monster surge.

Even up un Maine, Extensive flooding cut off Wells to Wells beach for a few hours near mid-night last night. Also, latest estimates have 83,200 customers without power in ME according to CMP (Central Maine Power)

-Jack

Afternoon update: storm moving ashore now in NJ, Battery park; other low-lying areas brace for historic flooding

Now this is crunch time. The center of circulation is bearing down on the NJ coast and the winds are picking up here in Maine.

Rain is now moving into the Detroit area now and is continuing steadily in most of the mid-atlantic states.

Forecasts are now holding steady and true (see posts below) and so I will not elaborate too much here.

New update from NHC:
NW movement at 28mph
pressure 940mb
winds 90mph

Hunker down and stay safe!

-JAck

8PM-Anylisis of Current Conditions, New Forecsats, and New Intermediate Advisory

Now it is time for the analysis. What exactly is happening? Where is the heaviest rain? Where are the strongest winds? Where is Sandy located? All is answered below.

First, the all-important NHC update.
Winds 75mph
Pressure 950mb
Movement NE 15mph

This has changed only very slightly from at 5 and at 2. The movement has increased slightly and the pressure has loweres a hair to 950 flat. This is down 1 mb from 2PM. This is slight strenghening and we sould expect a more rapid deepening trand as the warm core system moves over the Gulf Stram packing 80 degrees+ SST’s. This will quickly add a core wind speed of 10mph give or take a little and increase to 80-85mph by Monday Morning as it passes.

Sandy has tropical storm force winds extending 1000 miles+ out from the center and hurricane force winds 230 miles+ out from the center. The wierd thing is though, that the tropical storm force winds extend out farther to the NE than SW and the hurricane force winds extend farther to the SW than the NE.

After the Gulf Stream, the system will move over cooler waters of 65-70 degrees and will begin the transition to a full cold core system. This cold core system will be more adept to caputring the baroclinic energy brought in by the trough.

This may seem a bit overwhelming at first but it is just some pretty simple stuff under-cover. The lower left hand box is the moisture in the high levels of the atmosphere (35,000 feet). The moisture from Sandy is clearly visible streaming northward. The dry air that has been pertruding into Sandy’s eastern side is also clearly visible to her S and SE. The main photo is the winds from this altitude. I drew a black line where the approximate jet stream location is. The purple letters are “H” for ridge and “L” for upper level low/trough. Sandy is the ULL off the east coast and the centeral US trough is also shown.

This trough will inject a considerable amout of energy into the system and help to deepen it to a formidible 945mb low or lower just prior to landfall Monday evening. This will easily smash the records of 960, 955mb that have stood for centuries.

The winds between 5000 and 10000 feet will be absolutely howling as Sandy makes landfall as shown by this model plot.

As you can see, there will be winds in excess of 90 knots or 105mph.

This will be cause for major problems due to the convection firing on the western side of this storm will have the oppertunity to mix down down some of these winds to the surface creating quite a problem for the metropolis’. This is done by basically deflecting the winds like a light and a mirror by the downdraft pushing the winds down to the surface. Also, the high rises will be extra suseptable with winds increasing exponentially as you go up so that some of the tippy tops of the NYC sky-scrapers will be experiencing winds of CAT 5 intensity.

Surge is also another big thing to worry about as mentioned before. Surge heights go as following: South of Wilmington <2′, Wilmington to Cape Hatteras 2-6′, Cape Hatteras to VA beach, 3-6′, VA beach to Ocean City 4-7′, Ocean City to Montauk 4-8′, Long Island Sound 6-11′, NYC 11-15’+ Montauk to Boston 3-7′, Boston to Bath 2-5′, and North of Bath <2′

This is from this afternoon showing an 11′ water rise at the battery in Lower Manhattan which would flood out the subways.

Bouys…
NDBC Location: 31.862N 74.835W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: WNW (300°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 44.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 23.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: N (1°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.23 in and rising rapidly
Air Temperature: 72.3 F
Water Temperature: 77.4 F

Bouy data from SE of Cape Hatteras is shown above

Station 44065 NDBC Location: 40.369N 73.703W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 38.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 13.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 13 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (152°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.61 in and falling
Air Temperature: 59.0 F
Dew Point: 53.2 F
Water Temperature: 60.6 F

Bouy data from New York Harbor is shown above

Station 44007 NDBC
Location:
43.531N 70.144W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and falling
Air Temperature: 51.3 F
Water Temperature: 53.8 F

Bouy data from just off of Portland ME is shown above

Station 44025 NDBC
Location: 40.250N 73.167W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 16.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (107°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.57 in and falling
Air Temperature: 58.6 F
Dew Point: 55.9 F
Water Temperature: 61.3 F

Bouy data from off the Jersey Shore is shown above

Rainfall and inland flooding will be of great concern with rivers in VA already above flood stage prompting warnings. Amounts are as following: 10-12″ for NJ and easten PA as well as MD locally higher. 4-8″ For anywhere North of an Ocean City to Pittsburg line and South of a Pittsburg-NYC line. 1-2″ for areas north of Wilmington to Cleveland all the way over to Bangor Maine.

Satellite image of Sandy in the past few seconds courtesy of GOES 14 SRSOR (super rapid scan operational region)

-Jack

 

Bouy Data and New Advisory

The 2PM intermediate advisory has come out now and there are very few changes from before. The winds and pressure have stayed the same while the forward motion has increased to 14mph. There is also some new bouy data to show. I will feature 4 bouys. 1 off of Cape Hatteras, one in New York Harbor, one in the Gulf Of Maine, and one off the Jersey coast.

Station 41002 NDBC
Location: 31.862N 74.835W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: NW (310°) at 46.6 kt gusting to 60.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 27.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NNW (337°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.98 in and rising
Air Temperature: 70.9 F
Water Temperature: 77.9 F
Bouy 41002 Off of the Carolina Coast.
Station 44065 NDBC
Location: 40.369N 73.703W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: NE (40°) at 25.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (120°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.70 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 59.0 F
Dew Point: 54.1 F
Water Temperature: 61.2 F
Bouy 44065 in New York Harbor.
Station 44005 NDBC
Location: 43.204N 69.128W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and falling
Air Temperature: 52.5 F
Dew Point: 52.5 F
Water Temperature: 55.0 F
Bouy 44005 off of Portland ME.
Station 44025 NDBC
Location: 40.250N 73.167W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: NE (50°) at 31.1 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 12.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (146°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.67 in and falling
Air Temperature: 58.6 F
Dew Point: 56.5 F
Water Temperature: 61.9
Bouy 44025 off the Jersey coast.
Enjoy the data! I will make a new post with updated bouy data/new advisories at around 8 or 9 tonight.
-Jack