Mild Weather Continues Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature continued warm temps and moderate humidity as we remain stuck in between a few weather features without any individual entity strong enough or close enough to dominate our weather. As a result, skies are mostly sunny (except for a few clouds/showers drifting through southern NH) and will generally remain that way through the rest of the day. Some clouds will pop up this afternoon in response to some instability generated by our semi-humid airmass and warm temps.

A few of those clouds will become tall enough to produce showers and even a brief thunderstorm this afternoon. Without a strong frontal boundary to focus activity, most towns probably won’t see rain, but the few that do could see quite a bit of it over a relatively short time. One or two of the stronger cells could produce some gusty winds too. Overall, impacts from storms this afternoon are likely to be minimal.

High temps will range from the mid 70s up north to near 90 in southern NH.

-Jack

N.B.

I don’t usually do medium-range (3-7 day) forecasts on this blog, but I wanted to drop a quick note here about Tropical Storm Isaias which has formed near Puerto Rico this morning. Most model guidance suggests this storm will become a strong tropical storm or hurricane east of Florida tomorrow or Saturday before turning north in our general direction.

It’s way too early to hone in on exactly what this means for our forecast. We could see the system weaken and be little more than a source of moisture for thunderstorms along an approaching cold front. We could also see it remain strong and produce more significant rain/wind/storm surge impacts. I suspect we’ll have a much better idea by Saturday.

I mention this not because I think Isaias is a serious threat to northern New England, but so that you’re aware that it could be at some point early next week. There’s still too much uncertainty at the moment to warrant immediate action of any kind. That said, if you have a few spare minutes today, I’d suggest thinking about what your plan would be if a strong tropical storm or hurricane were to approach our area. What supplies you’d need, if you would need to evacuate and if so to where, and so on. It’s entirely possible (even likely) that you won’t need to implement that plan next week. But it’s good to have in the back of your head for when a storm does arrive (and one will, eventually whether it’s next week, next month, next year, or next decade).

Still Warm But Less Humid Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature warm but thankfully less humid weather as yesterday’s “cold front” continues drifting offshore and another boundary drifts in our direction from the west. Skies across the region this morning are sunny and aside from a few daytime cumulus, that will generally continue through this afternoon/evening. One or two of those cumulus might grow tall enough to produce a brief shower in the mountains this afternoon, but other than that, dry weather will continue. High temps will range from the upper 70s up north to the low 90s in southern NH and adjacent interior SW ME.

-Jack

Still Very Hot And Humid Today

Hello everyone!

If you somehow managed to enjoy yesterday’s steambath airmass, well I have good news for you. It’s gonna be just as boiling today.

Hyperlocal temperature data (a very neat new addition to weather.us) shows temps already approaching climatological highs for the day (as of 5 AM). That’s one easy way to tell that today’s going to be really lot. The Jetport has yet to drop below 80 degrees! More acceptable temps (<70) are found in the Midcoast and up in the mountains.

High temps today will once again soar above 90 for most of the area outside the Midcoast shorelines and the far northern mountains. Some spots in southern NH could make another run at 95.

The hyperlocal dew point map this morning shows widespread values within a few degrees of 70F. That’s actually down a tad from yesterday, and is consistent with the more moisture-rich air associated with the warm front we saw yesterday drifting north. Nevertheless, dew points near 70 still feel pretty terrible even if they’re marginally less so relative to dew points near 75.

This humidity, combined with the extreme heat discussed above, will push heat index values into dangerous territory (>95F) once again today. Limit outdoor activity during the heat of the day if you can and make sure to stay hydrated regardless.

Given all this heat and humidity, as well as an approaching cold front, we’ll have to think about showers and thunderstorms today. High-resolution guidance isn’t super impressed by this afternoon’s storm threat, but some of the cells that approach the coastline early in the afternoon could be quite strong given how much juice they have to work with. Threats from storms today include damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.

Storms will develop in the mountains later this morning before moving towards the coastline during the early/mid afternoon. Storms should be all wrapped up by mid/late afternoon.

-Jack

Heat And Humidity Becomes Extreme Across Southern Parts Of The Area Today

Hello everyone!

Today will be about as hot and humid as it’s possible to get here in Maine and New Hampshire, at least in southern parts of the area. A warm front will be lifting north through our region today and will be responsible for the heat and humidity as well as some afternoon shower/storm activity.

The first round of showers associated with the warm front is drifting southeast towards Sebago Lake as I write this around 6:15 AM. These will generally tend to weaken as they drift towards Portland later this morning. I think we’ll see a bit of a lull in shower activity during the mid/late morning hours before storms begin popping up early this afternoon.

These storms will initially develop in the mountains around noon-1 PM before moving east-southeast towards the coastline. The combination of hot temperatures, high humidity, and some cooler mid-level air will support plenty of instability to fuel the storms. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be the main threats with these storms but any time we get a warm front setup like this, we can’t totally rule out a tornado or two. The best chance, as always, is in the Sebago Lake region.

High temps today will range from the upper 70s/low 80s in the far northern mountains to the mid/upper 90s in southern NH. Most of central/southern NH and coastal/foothills regions in Maine will see temps above 90 this afternoon. Dew points near or above 70 will send heat index values into the triple digits over southern NH and adjacent parts of SW ME. Use appropriate caution if you need to be outside this afternoon.

-Jack

Heat and Humidity Returns Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the return of extreme (for our area) heat and humidity as west-southwesterly flow develops ahead of a cold front way to our northwest in Quebec. To start off this morning, we’ll get to enjoy some cloud cover moving in from Quebec ahead of a cluster of thunderstorms that formed along that frontal boundary yesterday. Those thunderstorms are located south of Quebec City and may actually survive into the northern part of our region over the next couple hours, bringing a round of heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder.

As we move into the middle part of the day, clouds should fade especially across southern parts of the region. This sunshine will team up with breezy WSW winds to send temps into the low/mid 90s across the entire coastal plain and foothills region from central NH all the way to Waterville/Augusta and points northeast. The only exception will be right along the Midcoast shoreline where temps will be held in check somewhat by the Gulf of Maine. Mid to upper 80s are expected there. Up in the north, temps will also be a little cooler thanks to cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during the morning. Points between Greenville and Jackman (and continuing WSW into far northern NH) can expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points near 70 will push heat index values close to “dangerous” levels (>95F as determined by NWS standards, what counts for you will depend on many individual factors) across southwestern ME and southern NH.

Another round of showers and storms will develop well to our north this afternoon. These could drift south into the mountains this afternoon, bringing gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. If you’re escaping the heat through ascent to the high peaks, be mindful of the potential for storms this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail especially across southern parts of the area.

Tomorrow’s heat will be even worse.

-Jack

Heat and Humidity Begins To Build Again Today

Hello everyone!

After a brief reprieve from the worst oft he heat and humidity yesterday, both will be on the increase today as winds shift back around to the west/southwest. Expect mostly sunny skies throughout the day (except for a few low clouds this morning and a bit of cirrus spilling over the ridge to our west) across the entire area. That sunshine will also help us warm well into the 80s across all but the northern mountains (upper 70s) and right along the Midcoast shorelines (near 80). A few spots in southern NH and interior SW ME will push above 90, though not by much (until tomorrow). I can’t totally rule out a pop-up shower up in the mountains, but nearly the entire region will remain dry today.

It will be even hotter and even more humid tomorrow.

-Jack

Active Weather Returns Today

Hello everyone!

After a few fairly quiet days, we’ll be watching out for showers and thunderstorms today as a cold front drops into the region from the northwest.

This morning, we’ll start out with fairly abundant cloud cover ahead of and along a warm front pushing through the area from the southwest. A few stations in southern parts of the area are reporting patchy fog in the wake of last night’s showers. The general trend should be towards sunnier skies by mid/late morning especially across southern and southwestern parts of the area.

That sunshine will push temps into the upper 70s or low 80s across most of the region except for the mountains and immediate coastline. South-southwesterly breezes will bring humidity back up to unpleasant levels (dew points in the high 60s/low 70s). As we all well know by this point in the season, a cold front plus heat plus humidity is a recipe for strong thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms will be developing over the mountains beginning around noon before moving east.

Today’s most intense storms will occur in the mid-afternoon hours over southern and central parts of the region (generally west of I-95 and south of Rt 2). These storms will pack quite the punch if we get enough sunshine this morning to produce robust instability. Damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be the primary threats, but some small hail is possible too. I can’t even totally rule out a brief tornado in the Sebago Lake region which is notorious for giving rotating storms a last push across the finish line.

Showers and storms will fade and move offshore by sunset.

-Jack

Heat Takes A Break Today As Clouds And Showers Develop

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a brief but extremely welcome pause on the extreme heat we’ve been dealing with over the past several days. The culprit for such a pause will be abundant clouds and some showers/storms moving through the area on the northern edge of a storm system moving through central New England. While a few sunny breaks are noted on satellite imagery this morning, the general rule of thumb today is that you’ll see more clouds than sun.

Showers are already moving north through SW NH ahead of a warm front draped across MA. So far, no lightning has been observed with these cells, but a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out. These showers seem likely to gradually weaken as they move towards SW ME in a few hours.

A round of more widespread showers and storms will arrive from the west during the evening hours after developing over NY this afternoon. These storms will be strongest in SW NH (where a few damaging wind gusts are possible) and will weaken as they move ENE towards the coastline.

Temps today will range from mid 70s right along the coastline and up in the mountains to low/mid 80s in southern NH and possibly spots near Augusta/Waterville which might see a little more sunshine this morning.

-Jack

Extreme Heat and Humidity Continues Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature more of the heat and humidity we saw yesterday as a cold front approaches then crosses the region.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a mix of sun and clouds across the region with the sunniest spots currently being along the coast and the cloudiest spots currently being found in the north/mountains.

As the morning goes on, I’d expect some of this cloud cover to burn off and by noon, we should be enjoying partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. The coastal plain will, as per usual, be sunniest. This sunshine will help push temps into the low-mid 90s for southern NH and much of the coastal plain of ME. As the front crosses the region this afternoon, winds will shift towards the west which means that the coast will no longer have access to the cooling influence of the Gulf of Maine. As a result, expect temps to spike into the upper 80s/low 90s all the way to the beaches. The exception, of course, will be far southern parts of the Midcoast peninsulas where winds coming from the west will still have access to some water.

During all this heat, unfortunately the humidity will remain high. Dew points will be stuck at or above 70 for most of the region today despite the drying influences of downsloping. As a result, heat index values will push towards 100 across southern NH and SW ME. The rest of the ME foothills/coastline will see heat index values in the mid/upper 90s. As a result, heat advisories have been issued for our entire area outside the mountains for this afternoon. This heat will be dangerous if proper precautions aren’t taken. Basically, try to limit strenuous activity during the heat of the day and be sure to stay hydrated.

With all this heat and humidity and a cold front in the vicinity, we would be making a big mistake to neglect talk of thunderstorms this afternoon. The biggest limiting factor in this afternoon’s severe weather will be that it’s too hot aloft to support thunderstorms without a strong initial upward push (this is known as a capping inversion). So we won’t see very many storms. That said, for the one or two that might pop up along the coastal plain this afternoon, the environment will be very favorable for damaging winds in addition to heavy rain and frequent lightning. So you probably won’t see a thunderstorm this afternoon, but if you do, it could be a fairly strong one. The best chance for storms will be closer to the coast during the early/mid afternoon hours.

-Jack

Extremely Hot and Humid Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature extreme (for our region anyway) heat and humidity as southwesterly winds pick up ahead of a cold front approaching the region from the west.

Satellite imagery this morning shows mostly sunny skies across southern parts of the region while clouds drift through northern parts of the area. These clouds are the remnants of thunderstorms that developed last night over Quebec. A few of those clouds are still producing a few raindrops near Greenville. These should dry up over the next few hours.

Generally dry conditions will prevail until late this afternoon/evening when a couple showers could pop up over the higher terrain.

The main story today will be the heat and humidity. Partly to mostly sunny skies and incredibly warm air aloft will allow temps to soar to near record levels especially across southern NH and southwestern ME.

This map shows NWS forecast high temperatures for the Northeast today. Circled stations are those that may break today’s record highs. Temps in the upper 90s will do just that in southern NH this afternoon. Most of the central NH and interior SW ME will be a touch cooler (low/mid 90s). The mountains and northern parts of the region will benefit from a few clouds this morning and will only see highs in the upper 80s. The best place to be this afternoon will be along the Midcoast where onshore south-southwesterly winds will kick up late morning and bring a relatively cooler marine airmass onshore (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s).

One other note about today: it will be quite humid, even (especially) where the hottest temperatures will be found. As a result, heat index values will surge above 100F over southern NH and adjacent parts of SW ME.

Other spots away from the immediate shoreline will see heat index values in the mid/upper 90s. The NWS has issued a heat advisory for most of the area outside the mountains and Midcoast due to these high heat index values. If you can, limit the amount of time you spend outside during the heat of the day. If you do need to be outside, make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks!

It will be anothah scoahchah tomorrow though with the added excitement of a few showers and storms.

-Jack