Today will feature mainly cloudy skies across the area as well as the chance for showers in south western areas. Look for showers trying to work into southern areas but dry high pressure to the north will keep any steady or heavy rain confined to far SW NH and points SW. Far NE areas are likely to stay dry and could also see some sunny breaks as high pressure remains in control. For the rest of the area, we’re in the battleground between high and low pressure which means cloudy skies and on and off drizzle/light rain can be expected. Temps look to remain cool as clouds and onshore flow prevent any significant heating. The warmest temps will be found in NE areas where at least some sun is likely to get through. Highs there will likely rise into the upper 70’s to near 80 while SW areas under the influence of onshore flow and cloudy skies will likely stay stuck in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.
If this were December, we’d have quite an interesting setup tomorrow. Sadly, it’s the end of July which means that instead of a fascinating concoction of rain, sleet, snow, and ice, we will be experiencing a dull, cool, drizzly, cloudy, showery day. Low pressure to the west will try to sling some tropical moisture our way but dry Canadian high pressure will be playing goalie and doing a fairly job blocking any shots of heavy rain thrown our way. The end result will be a day where conditions will vary greatly depending on location with the nicest (least dreary?) weather north and west and the worst (least nice) weather south and west.
This Evening’s Surface Analysis Showing The Setup Going Into Tomorrow. Image Credit: SPC
A weak area of low pressure is currently drifting NE out of the Ohio Valley and into western PA. A warm front extends out ahead of it into Southern New England while a cold front trails it into the Midwest. Most importantly for our forecast is the high to the north. That high will constantly feed cool, dry air into the region as tropical moisture tries to stream north (as I said, if only it was December!). If upper level winds were strong enough and the flow amplified (wavy) enough, it might not matter but a look at this morning’s upper air analysis reveals why our chances for a super soaking are super low (if not zero).
This Morning’s Upper Air Analysis. Image Credit: Meteocentre
Winds aloft over North America are still generally blowing out of the WNW. This is slowly changing as a disturbance drops south into the Pacific NW (that disturbance (red line) may bring showers and storms next weekend) but for now, our disturbance for tomorrow (blue line) still has little room to amplify and move north. The lack of strong upper level forcing means that the dry high pressure over northern Maine will likely win the day and prevent any steady, heavy rain from impacting Northern New England (southern New England has a better chance at heavier showers/storms as they are closer to the moisture). That doesn’t mean that you’re good to go the beach though, we likely do see at least some rain.
HRRR Model Showing One Idea As To How Rain Tomorrow Shakes Out. Image Credit: Weatherbell
This map is valid at 10 AM tomorrow morning and is showing light rain/drizzle over SW ME and most of NH with heavier rain towards SW SNE and the Mid Atlantic states. Drizzle/light rain and fog are likely to be the name of the game tomorrow as onshore flow develops in between the high to the north and the low to the south/west. Aside from lots of drizzle/light rain, not a lot is expected to happen outside of southern NH and perhaps York County Maine. In that area, pockets of heavier rain are likely with a rumble or two of thunder possible. In terms of total rainfall amounts, a general .1 to .25″ is likely SW of the black line. NE of the black line, lesser amounts are likely with many far northern areas getting little or nothing in terms of rainfall. Some pockets of a half inch are possible across SW NH with up to .75″ possible if any downpours develop and decide not to move for a while. While this rain is better than nothing, we will need something a lot bigger to erase our 3-6″+ deficit and the accompanying moderate/severe drought conditions across SW areas.
The best way to get that rainfall in the summer would be through a tropical system of some sort. There are a couple weak disturbances down in the tropics that I am keeping an eye on but it is highly unlikely we see any tropical drought easing in the next 10 days.
Our next chance for rain will arrive next weekend when the disturbance over the Pacific NW moves across Canada and joins up with the remains of a storm currently south of Alaska. I’ll be watching that this week and will have more updates as we get closer.
I’ll have a morning update tomorrow but will be heading to Boston for much of the afternoon and thus won’t have time for an evening update.
Today will feature mainly sunny skies, cooler temps, and lower humidity. A lovely day is in store across the area as temps climb to right around 80 before a sea breeze cools things off at the coast. Farther inland, temps will remain in the low 80’s. Dew points will be settling into the comfortable range as light NW breezes bring in dry Canadian air. Skies will be mainly sunny with just a few late day clouds possible in western areas.
Enjoy it! More clouds and showers are possible tomorrow.
A leftover shower is possible tonight as another cold front rolls offshore but other than that, the next 24-48 hours look to be a continuation of our recent dry pattern. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Cooler temps are expected for Sunday as more clouds and possibly showers are expected to roll in. How many people saw rain today? Not a lot. The drier GFS scenario worked out as a cluster of thunderstorms south of Southern New England kept any significant moisture too far south for tropical deluges in Southern New England and too far south even for light to moderate rain for Southern Maine. Some parts of Southern NH did get a period of much needed rain this morning but much more will be needed to erase the current rainfall deficit which is in the 3-6″+ range. Will we get another chance at rain here in Maine and New Hampshire? Guidance is hinting at more rain Sunday into Monday but I’m skeptical for the same reasons I was about this morning’s event. Most of these doubts stem from the pattern we are currently in across North America.
This Morning’s 500mb Map Showing Conditions Unfavorable For Tropical Moisture Moving North. Image Credit: Meteocentre
The general pattern across North America is dominated by upper level low pressure from the NW Territories to Northern Quebec/Labrador. A heat dome is located over the SW US and a subtropical ridge extends to the east of that into the Atlantic and west into the Pacific. The reason that low pressure in the Yukon and High pressure in Arizona is important to us in Maine is that in between those systems, the winds are primarily out of the WNW (black arrows). The disturbance to be watched for Sunday/Monday is the blue line over the central US. Guidance indicates that it will drift NE and intensify as it approaches us. I don’t fully believe the degree to which the models are amplifying it because the pattern indicates that it will tend to zoom south and out to sea just like the disturbance before it did this morning. Now, I do believe we have a better chance of rain Sunday/Monday than we did this morning because of the little pocket of calm winds this disturbance is currently sitting in (red lines). The NW flow is being diverted around the disturbance and so it won’t feel the full effects of the NW winds. This makes me think that we have a better chance to get at least a little moisture up here, perhaps enough to drop a quarter or half inch of much needed rain in the form of widespread showers or possibly even some steady rain.
More details will become available in the coming days and this remains a fairly uncertain forecast so if you have outdoor plans Sunday or Monday, I would simply keep an eye and ear out for the latest info in the coming days before making a decision.
Today will feature mainly cloudy skies as we sit in between two fronts. The front from last night is stalled just offshore and a low is developing on its southern end just offshore of NYC. That low will scoot ENE today and we will be on its far northern fringe. It will bring the chance for showers this morning especially along the coast and across the southern half of NH. It will be moving out by early afternoon if not before.
Current Analysis Showing The Observed Conditions This Morning (7 AM)
Here is the 7 AM observed satellite/radar along with surface winds to show the fronts. As you can see, there are showers across southern NH and far SW ME associated with the southern front/surface low. Also note, however, that there are a few sprinkles popping up ahead of another cold front that is drifting in from the west. These sprinkles will become more numerous as the day goes on with a few full fledged showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm expected by afternoon.
HRRR Interpretation Of This Afternoon’s Forecast. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The HRRR model does a good job of showing the general setup this afternoon with scattered showers and storms across the area at 2 PM. Don’t look at models like this to determine exactly which town a storm will hit (that’s impossible), but do look at them to get an overall idea for what the setup is. In this case the setup favors scattered showers possibly with a rumble or two in the stronger cells developing mid morning and slowly drifting towards the coast by mid to late afternoon. Some sun is also possible this afternoon and into this evening especially in NW areas.
Highs will be sitting a few degrees on either side of 80 with fairly uniform temps across the area today.
More rain is possible at some point either late in the weekend or early next week. More on that as we get closer.
Showers and storms are ongoing across the region today with just a few managing to reach severe status with small hail and gusty winds. Showers and storms will diminish through the evening hours as we lose daytime heating. Some residual rumbles are possible through early tonight in southern areas but no severe weather is expected. The cold front responsible for today’s storms will settle just to our south tonight and low pressure will develop along it before scooting ENE tomorrow. Just like a winter snowstorm, there will be a sharp northern edge to the heavy precip where one town could see upwards of 2″ of rain while the next town over ends up with maybe a quarter inch. As of now, it looks like Maine will end up on the dry side of this line while MA, CT, and RI end up on the wet side. The battleground will be between Manchester NH and Boston MA. Those areas could go either way.
This Morning’s 500mb Analysis Showing A Broadly Zonal Pattern. Image Credit: Meteocentre
The reason that heavy rain is not expected is that upper level winds are unfavorable for steering moisture to us. There is a disturbance currently located over Eastern Canada (northern blue line) that will move east tonight. Behind it, there will be WNW winds aloft. Those WNW winds will guide the disturbance with all the moisture (southern blue line) well to our south. We will still likely see at least a little bit of rain but no big flooding storms are in the forecast.
12Z 4km NAM Showing How Things Could Play Out With Rain Tomorrow. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The mountains are likely to stay mostly dry though a stray shower sparked by daytime heating cannot be ruled out. Along the coast, showers will be more numerous with a brief period of steady light to moderate rain possible. The heavy rain will be reserved for far southern New England with southern CT, MA, and RI possibly seeing up to 3″ of rain. Some guidance indicates we could miss out all together with only the chance for showers along the coast and nothing north. Right now, I’d plan on some drops tomorrow but a washout doesn’t look likely.
Drier and cooler weather is likely to move in Saturday and there’s the chance for more wet weather next week though that remains highly uncertain.
Today will feature warm temps, increasing clouds, and the chance for afternoon showers and storms. Showers and storms will begin to develop this afternoon over the mountains before moving south east across the area heading into this evening. They likely will be weakening as they approach the coast later this evening. The window for storms looks to be 1PM-12AM from NW to SE. Some storms could be strong but no widespread severe weather is likely. That being said, a stray strong wind gust or a few small hailstones cannot be completely ruled out. The greatest threat for any marginally severe storms will be in the northern mountains.
HRRR Showing What The Radar Could Look Like Early This Evening. Credit: Weatherbell
Here’s how one model thinks it could play out this afternoon/evening. Look for scattered storms drifting slowly towards the coast. As I said, no widespread severe weather is expected but it doesn’t take severe wind or hail to make storms dangerous. Lightning is as big a threat as any so when thunder roars, go indoors.
Highs will rise into the 80’s for most with some upper 70’s along the coast and in the far north. A sea breeze does look likely to develop this afternoon but otherwise, light southerly/south westerly winds are expected.
We have two interesting weather systems coming our way in the next few days. The first will be a cold front dropping south out of Canada tomorrow afternoon. It will bring with it the threat for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. No severe weather is expected. That front will lose steam and stall somewhere just to our south Friday morning at which point a wave of low pressure will try to develop and move NE along the front. Where that low tracks and how strong it is will determine the outcome of our second weather event and how much beneficial rain we receive. Quieter weather is expected to follow that event with mild temps and sunny skies expected into next week.
Let’s do a quick rundown of the three ingredients needed for strong/severe storms. Doing this will explain why some storms are likely but also why severe storms are not. Instability is a go as temps soar into the 80’s and low 90’s while dew points climb as well, into the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Nothing incredible, but certainly enough for some booms.
12Z NAM And GFS Both Showing Upper Level Energy And A Surface Cold Front To Trigger Storms.
How about a trigger? An upper level disturbance will be pinwheeling around the base of an upper low over Eastern Canada tomorrow. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will be sagging south across the region tomorrow. Both of these are shown in the image above with the left two panels representing one model forecast and the left two representing another. While there are some differences, the general idea remains the same. The general idea is that there will be enough of a trigger to get at least a few storms going. The big question then becomes, will they become organized enough to produce severe weather?
12Z NAM Showing Very Little Shear To Organize Storms. Image Credit: Accuweather
The short answer to that question is no. While guidance indicates some marginal shear, perhaps enough to trigger an isolated severe storm, there is not enough shear to support widespread severe weather. This means that you can expect your typical garden variety thunderstorms tomorrow with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and possibly some gusty winds. Remember, storms don’t have to be severe to be dangerous. Lightning can strike up to 15 miles from a storm and is just as dangerous as strong winds or large hail. When thunder roars, go indoors.
Putting that all together, here’s the big picture for tomorrow afternoon/evening. Scattered storms look to develop in the early afternoon over the mountains and will slowly move SE through the afternoon and into the evening hours before reaching the coast in a weakened state later in the evening. Storms are most likely in the mountains and least likely along the coast and especially along the midcoast.
Friday Rain
12Z GFS Showing The Setup Leading To Possible Rain Friday. Image Credit: Weatherbell
Tomorrow’s cold front will stall just off the coast Friday morning and a low pressure area will develop along its southern end over the Mid Atlantic states. The GFS shows this situation well with the map shown depicting conditions at 8:00 Friday morning. Scattered showers are possible during this time but steady rain, if it happens, is likely to occur Friday afternoon/evening. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for Friday as guidance offers several different possibilities. There are two scenarios, the dry scenario, and the wet scenario. I break each down below along with which I think is more likely.
A Comparison Of The 12Z NAM (Right Panels, Wet Solution) And The 12Z GFS (Left Panels, Dry Solution). Click To Enlarge.
The NAM and GFS models from this afternoon present the two more extreme solutions: almost no rain on the GFS and tons of rain on the NAM. The map above is data-rich and small, so click it to enlarge it so you can see all the details, if you want. The main difference between the models revolves around the amount of upper level energy in the atmosphere and where that energy is located. The NAM has way more energy (lots of red, top right panel) while the GFS has very little (thin stripe of red, top left panel). Also of note is the location of the kicker disturbance. The software I use to get the data for these graphics makes any boundaries very hard to see so I highlighted New England as well as the Quebec/Ontario border to show the differences in location of the kicker disturbance. Notice that the NAM has it farther west, closer to the border while the GFS has it well east of the border. Keep in mind these maps are valid at the same time. By keeping the kicker farther west, the NAM allows for more moisture to stream northward and also gives the low more time to strengthen, bringing more rain. The GFS on the other hand hurries the kicker along, pushing the storm and the moisture offshore quickly.
12Z NAM (Right) vs 12Z GFS (Left) Both Showing Available Moisture (PWAT)
The difference in moisture can be seen in the Precipitable Water maps which show how much moisture is available. Notice how the blue (super moisture laden air) is much more abundant and closer to the coast on the NAM (right) compared to the GFS (left). Also notice that on both models, SE MA gets in on the action. Heavy rain is likely there but rain chances become more uncertain as you head NW. Notice also how the mountains are in fairly dry air (brown/yellow). Very little rain is expected there. The battleground so to speak will be those areas in between the SE MA coast and the ME/NH mountains.
Current (12Z Today) Upper Air (500mb) Analysis. Image Credit: Meteocentre
What do I think will happen? Right now I am leaning towards the GFS’s scenario because the larger scale pattern supports it. This morning’s upper air map shows this well. Winds in the upper atmosphere are overwhelmingly west-east over North America with only shallow ridges and troughs. This “zonal” pattern does not lend itself to troughs digging and amplifying which is what the NAM depicts. Right now, the WNW flow around the heat dome over the SW US looks likely to simply shove the fledgling low off the coast, leaving us with just a few showers or perhaps a brief period of steady rain. SE MA is likely to see the steadiest and heaviest rain with showers making their way all the way up to the base of the mountains. The mountains are likely to stay mostly dry as they are simply too far removed from the deep moisture to our SE. I’ll have more on this tomorrow along with updates on the thunderstorm threat.
Quieter weather is expected through much of next week.
Today will be a lot like yesterday in that it will feature mainly sunny skies, warm temps, and the chance for a pop up shower or storm in the far north. Highs will rise into the 80’s for most with some low 90’s south and west. A sea breeze is likely to develop this afternoon which will lower temps along the coastline. Skies will be sunniest south and cloudiest north as a cold front slowly creeps its way towards the northernmost parts of the region. A late day shower or storm is possible along that front and the threat of that will be greatest north of Route 2.
More widespread showers and storms are possible tomorrow but widespread severe weather looks unlikely.
Our cold front from last night sits just offshore currently and it did not do a whole lot in terms of lowering our temps or our dew points, both of which are sitting in the high 60’s right now. Light NW breezes will attempt to change that today but their only real effect will be in terms of cloud cover where an upslope/downslope regime will be in place. This of course means cloudy mountains and warm, sunny inland/coast. Temps will rise into the 70’s in the mountains and along the immediate coastline while most of the area sees 80’s. A stray 90 degree reading is possible in SW NH. Dew points will remain high, though they will slowly be dropping, so heat will be a consideration once again today.
Stay cool, our next cold front with the chance for showers and storms arrives Thursday.
Forecasterjack 