Today will feature mostly cloudy skies and generally dry conditions as our next storm gathers steam to our west. The core of this storm will arrive tomorrow in the form of a long/narrow band of heavy rain. Interestingly, this band has already formed and is currently moving through Pennsylvania. Why won’t it get here until tomorrow if it’s so close this morning? The band is oriented north-south and throughout the atmosphere in the vicinity of the band, winds are nearly due southerly. Because the band is pushed east by whatever component of the wind is oriented perpendicular to the band, its forward motion is quite slow.
All that to say that the storm will be on our doorstep today, but we won’t see much in the way of heavy precipitation until tomorrow. One exception to the ‘generally dry’ rule will be across NH this morning. A batch of rain is moving north from CT/MA towards the NH border and should arrive in the next hour or so across SW NH. Most high-resolution model guidance indicates that this batch of rain will fall apart as it continues moving north, but as far as I can tell, the mid-level moisture pocket associated with this batch of precip is a bit more robust than guidance suggests. With that in mind, don’t be shocked if northern parts of NH and western parts of ME end up with a few drops at some point later this morning. The best chance for steady rain will be found along the SE-facing slopes of the mountains.
Temps today will fall back into the low to mid 40s for most of the area. A few 50 degree readings are possible in southern NH and northeast of Waterville.
Sunshine will finally return to the region today as high pressure slides in from Canada between our finally-departed coastal storm and our next system which is organizing over the Great Lakes. Mostly sunny skies are noted across the area on satellite imagery and with a glance out the window this morning. Mid/high clouds are slowly beginning to spill over the top of the ridge ahead of the storm out in the Great Lakes. We’ll start to see those clouds arrive in our region during the midday/early afternoon hours. High temps today will actually make a run at seasonal norms and will range from the upper 40s along the coast to mid/upper 50s for most of the interior to low 60s in southern NH.
Enjoy the sun while it lasts today, there’s a good chance we won’t see it again until Sunday.
Today will feature slowly improving weather as the area of low pressure responsible for bringing rain and snow to the region over the past couple days moves slowly east. A few lingering bands of showers/flurries are noted on radar and with a glance out the window this morning. These shouldn’t result in any accumulations and will dissipate within the next couple hours. Cloud cover will take a bit longer to move out of the area, but by sunset western parts of the region may be able to catch a glimpse of the sun. High temps will remain well on the cooler side of normal, ranging from 45 in the mountains to around 50 or perhaps 55 in interior parts of Maine and SW NH.
The storm we saw move in with rain and snow last night will lose its forward momentum near Cape Cod today. As a result, we’ll be stuck with chilly temps, a noticeable north/northeast breeze, and bands of rain/snow. Current observations suggest that rain is the dominant precipitation type through the I-95 corridor while snow is falling up in the mountains and in some parts of the foothills. The tug of war between the warming influence of the late April sun and the cooling influence of heavier precipitation bands will determine who exactly gets rain and who gets snow today. Of course the mountains have the best shot at seeing enough snow to pick up a few more inches of accumulation. The foothills will likely see snow fall for much of the day, but it will struggle to accumulate outside of grassy/elevated surfaces. The coastal plain will see mostly rain but some flakes could mix in from time to time as the heavier bands rotate through. No accumulation is expected along the coast except for perhaps a transient coating on the coldest available surfaces.
High temps today will be outrageously cold for April 27th, ranging from 40 along the NH Seacoast to 32 in the mountains. Most of us will see temps top out in the mid to upper 30s. That’s about 20-25 degrees below normal, and may be good enough to set some low maximum temperature records at the various climate sites.
Either way, today is the perfect day to get the wood stove going and camp out by the fire. More dreary weather is expected tomorrow, though precipitation looks to be a bit more showery in nature.
While May is now just a few days away, the atmosphere appears to be joining many of us in reminiscing about more “normal” days earlier this winter. With that in mind, we’ll be doing our best ‘early March’ impression over the next few days as a coastal storm develops and redevelops several times over the Mid Atlantic and the waters off Cape Cod.
The first round of redevelopment is now underway off the Delmarva. As that low moves in our direction, expect any morning breaks of sun to quickly fade behind a thickening overcast over the next hour or two. Precipitation is already knocking on SW NH’s doorstep according to radar imagery but so far none of it appears to be making it to the ground. Rain will begin in SW NH around 1-2 PM before advancing northeast into Maine around 3-4 PM. Before the storm arrives, temps will jump into the mid 40s in SW NH, upper 40s in the mountains and along the coast, and low to mid 50s for interior parts of Maine. Initially, as precipitation moves in during peak heating hours, the precipitation type will be rain. However, as we approach sundown, a change to snow will begin in the higher elevations of NH and western ME.
This model forecast snapshot valid at 11 PM today shows snow falling in the mountains with a mix in the foothills and rain along the coast. Temperatures aloft are supportive of snow all the way to the coast (except perhaps for the Midcoast peninsulas) so precipitation type will be determined entirely by surface temperatures (generally lingering in the mid 30s). With that in mind, expect precipitation type to be determined largely by precipitation rate. When heavier bands arrive, snow will fall all the way to the coast. During lulls, much of the coastal plain will flip back to rain while light snow continues in the foothills and mountains.
This pattern will generally hold through tomorrow as the storm reaches its peak (though still quite modest) intensity just east of Chatham MA. We’ll be in the perfect spot for heavy bands just NW of the low which means that snow is likely to advance closer to the coast. On the other hand, the strong late-April sun will be working to warm temps near the surface. Even if temps rise by just a few degrees, that would be enough to knock precip types from snow to rain. Either way, snow will have a hard time accumulating during the daytime hours tomorrow. We’ll have a better sense of what the storm will do tomorrow once we see the whites of its eyes.
Believe it or not, this system will continue to bring rain and snow to the area on Tuesday as it slowly meanders east.
It may be overcast across much of the area at the moment, but clearer skies are on the way as dry air floats into the region from Canada. Look for skies to clear from NW to SE over the next few hours which will leave us mostly sunny by midday. The strong April sun will combine with slightly warmer air aloft to support milder temps this afternoon. Look for highs ranging from 45 in the north to 65 in far southern NH. Most of the foothills/coastal plain will end up around 60 while a sea breeze keeps the immediate coast cooler around 50.
Our next storm arrives tomorrow with rain and snow that will last straight through Tuesday. This one could bring another round of power outages especially in the foothills. More details tomorrow morning.
A storm developing over the Mid Atlantic states will mostly miss our area today as it accelerates east-northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes. That will leave our area with chilly temps and cloudy skies for most of the day. Look for high temps ranging from a little above 50 in northern parts of the area to around 40 along the MA border. Most of the region should stay dry today as low-level dry air works to evaporate any precipitation that falls from our mid-level cloud deck. The exception will be far southern parts of NH where periods of light rain are likely between now and the mid-afternoon hours. Nicer weather is on the way tomorrow before our next storm approaches with rain and snow on Sunday.