All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m Jack Sillin, freshman at NYA, snow-lover, enjoyer of the outdoors, and of course, weather geek. My passion for weather began several years ago when I was about six years old on a series of long plane trips while watching countless hours of The Weather Channel. My skills have evolved rapidly in the past few years from excitedly refreshing the radar on the local TV weather page (I’m still guilty of that from time to time…) to waking early to analyze complex charts and graphs every day to produce a forecast. I’m hoping to pursue a career in the NWS someday. Aside from the weather, I’m a big skier and lover of all things cold and snow. I also like to do many other outdoor activities such as hiking and fishing when the snow is no longer around. I can be reached through twitter @JackSillin and via email at jack.sillin@gmail.com.

Another Round of Showers and Thunderstorms Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature another round of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front swings into the region from Canada. Before those showers and storms begin developing this afternoon, we’ll be working on slowly burning off the layer of fog/stratus currently in place over the southeastern half of the area.

Satellite imagery shows slow progress being made towards clearing this morning. I think the fog/stratus layer will retreat to roughly the I-95 corridor by early/mid afternoon before getting stuck. So it’ll be another cloudy day along the coastline while inland areas should see at least a few hours of sunshine.

For those that do see sunshine today, temps will rise into the low/mid 80s. A few upper 80s are possible in southwestern NH. This warmth, combined with plenty of moisture left over from this morning’s marine layer will support thunderstorm development when a cold front arrives later this afternoon.

This forecast map shows several storms popping up in the mountains around 3-4 PM in a region of robust instability (but relatively light wind shear). Storms are likely to be more numerous as you head farther northeast where better forcing for ascent will be found. Storms that develop in the mountains in the mid/late afternoon will move southeast during the early evening, bringing heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds to parts of the foothills. As these storms approach the coast, they will encounter a cooler airmass produced by the lack of direct sunlight under the marine stratus deck. As a result, storms will weaken quickly and no severe weather is expected (heavy rain and lightning still possible).

Temps along the coastline will top out in the upper 60s (near Rockland) to mid 70s (closer to Portland).

Showers and storms will remain in the mix for the first half of tonight as remnant storms move into the region from northern NY/VT. None of these are likely to be severe based on currently available information.

-Jack

Generally Quiet Weather Today

Hello everyone and happy Fourth of July!

Today will feature generally quiet weather across the area as a very weak cold front slides into the region from Canada. Satellite imagery this morning shows low clouds slowly burning off as daytime heating gets going. This trend will continue over the next few hours with clear skies expected area-wide by lunchtime.

Sunshine this afternoon will periodically be dimmed by passing cumulus clouds as some instability develops in response to warm temps and residual humidity (dew points near 60). A few of those cumulus cloud grow tall enough to produce a brief shower especially in the mountains and far northeastern parts of the area. Overall though, the vast majority of us will remain dry today.

Temps will top out in the mid 70s up north and along the coast with low 80s inland. Enjoy the beautiful weather!

-Jack

Cooler and Cloudier Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cooler temps and generally cloudier skies as winds shift around to the east/northeast and cooler air arrives from Canada and the Gulf of Maine. High temps will range from the upper 60s along the coastline to the mid 70s in northeastern parts of the interior where sunshine will emerge later this afternoon.

Most of Maine is experiencing low clouds or fog as I write this shortly before 5:30 AM while New Hampshire, still mostly ahead of the front, is partly cloudy. Expect the Maine fog bank to continue sliding southwest this morning along with the front. As we move later into the afternoon. the fog will attempt to burn off. This effort is likely to be most successful in the foothills and mountains where sunshine will emerge as the prevailing weather condition by mid/late afternoon.

Overall, precipitation chances will be limited today. Some drizzle is possible along the coast in the fog bank and a couple scattered showers will likely pop up in the mountains of NH this afternoon but otherwise dry conditions are expected.

-Jack

Another Round of Showers and Thunderstorms Arrives This Afternoon

Hello everyone!

Today, we’ll finally be getting rid of the upper-level low that has brought unsettled conditions to the region since Sunday. However, to do so, we’ll need a cold front to sweep through the region from north to south. That front will provide forcing for ascent for strong to severe thunderstorms especially in northeastern parts of the area this afternoon.

Before we get to the storms this afternoon, we’ll start off with widespread low clouds and fog this morning. Some of this fog is quite dense with visibilities of less than a quarter mile. Low clouds and fog will burn off over the next couple hours, leaving mostly sunny skies by noon.

That sunshine will push temps well above what they have been this week under the influence of the upper-level low. Highs will range from 75 in the mountains and along the coastline to near 90 along the coastal plain. Unfortunately, dew points will surge into the mid/upper 60s which means it will feel hot and muggy.

Any time a cold front slices through a hot and humid airmass, we start thinking about thunderstorms. This afternoon is no exception. Expect showers and storms to begin popping up over the mountains around 2-3 PM before moving southeast later in the afternoon. The central part of the region from Fryeburg to Belfast will be most unstable, and the best forcing for ascent (the initial upward nudge thunderstorms need to develop) will be found over eastern parts of the area. As a result, the best chance for strong thunderstorms will be found over central/eastern parts of the area from Penobscot Bay north into Somerset County and west towards the Lewiston/Farmington corridor.

This is generally consistent with model forecasts. That said, I also suspect we’ll see a few storms initiate from terrain forcing over the White Mountains before proceeding south-southwest into Oxford, Cumberland, and York counties. These won’t be as widespread as the storms farther east, but I think we’ll see at least one or two. Storms today will produce lightning, damaging winds, and heavy rain.

Cooler and drier weather arrives tomorrow.

-Jack

More of the Same Unsettled Weather Today

Hello everyone!

Today’s weather across New England will look a lot like yesterday’s as the upper-level low responsible for our periodic rounds of rain remains stuck overhead. As of 5:15 AM, most of the region is socked in with either low clouds (inland/mountains) or fog (coastal plain). That will gradually change as we move later into the afternoon when breaks of sun are expected to pop up. These patches of sunshine won’t last all that long as instability increases and another round of showers/storms develops.

Just like yesterday, showers and storms won’t be distributed equally around the entire area. Some towns will get over an inch of rain from a slow-moving thunderstorm and the next towns over might not even see a drop. The most widespread showers/storms will once again be away from the coastline. Just like the past few days, the primary threats from showers and storms today are lightning and heavy rain. Upper-level winds aren’t strong enough to support much of a severe weather threat.

High temps today will remain on the cooler side, ranging from 70 in the northern mountains to 75 in the foothills.

-Jack

Unsettled Weather Continues Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature more in the way of unsettled weather as the upper-level low responsible for storms on Sunday and yesterday’s soaking rain remains close by. As of 5:15 AM, the steadiest rain is located over central and northern parts of the area from western Cumberland County north towards Sugarloaf. Expect new showers to pop up as we head throughout the day and temps drift slowly upward in response to whatever remnant energy from the sun isn’t reflected by thick cloud cover.

Here’s one model depiction of what the radar might look like this afternoon. Note that shower activity will be concentrated away from the coast where the best instability will develop. At this point, it doesn’t look like any of these showers will be strong enough to produce severe weather, but a few rumbles of thunder are possible.

Temps today will remain on the cooler side thanks to the cold air associated with the upper-level low and abundant cloud cover. Expect highs within a few degrees of 70 across the area. The northern mountains and Midcoast peninsulas will be coolest around 65.

-Jack

Much-Needed Rain Continues Today

Hello everyone!

Much of the region is now officially experiencing moderate drought conditions, so while today will be on the dreary side for most, the rain that will fall is sorely needed. Radar imagery this morning shows drought-busting downpours in progress from the mountains down towards Casco Bay. This region of moderate to heavy rain is rotating slowly counter-clockwise in response to forcing from an upper-level low. That means that the Midcoast is likely to see some rounds of heavier rain in the next couple hours while York County and parts of Cumberland County see precipitation taper off.

This morning’s steady rain will gradually fade to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These are generally expected to be less intense than yesterday’s storms, but will be similarly widespread. Not everyone will get heavy rain this afternoon, but I suspect there will be more winners than losers given the favorable forcing for ascent and abundant moisture.

A few breaks of sun are possible this afternoon especially in southwestern parts of the area, but overcast skies will generally be in control today. As a result, temps will remain on the cooler side, ranging from the low/mid 60s in much of Maine to low/mid 70s in western NH.

-Jack

Widespread Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon

Hello everyone!

Today will feature fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as a storm develops to our south. This is actually an interesting setup in a number of ways, and if all goes well, parts of the region could pick up quite a bit of much needed rain.

We start off this morning mostly sunny except for some fog in the Midcoast and a few clouds up in the mountains. That sunshine is just what we’ll need to boost temps into the low/mid 80s across much of the region. The Midcoast, under persistent clouds and fog, will remain cooler as will the mountains. A few spots in southern NH may end up in the upper 80s. For those who end up above 80, there will be plenty of instability for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.

Those showers and storms will be popping up starting around 2-3 PM in the mountains. The best fuel for thunderstorms (pink/red shadings) will be found away from the coastline right along the edge of the sea breeze front. This is where the best chance of severe weather will be found. Today’s stronger cells could produce some damaging wind gusts especially up in the mountains.

By this evening, showers and storms are expected to coalesce into larger bands of moderate to heavy rain. This would be ideal for making progress towards alleviating our current drought.

Keep an eye to the sky if you’re headed outside today.

-Jack

Generally Quiet Weather Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature generally quiet weather as an area of low pressure slides east through PA/NJ/NY. On the northern periphery of that low, we’ll see clouds increase in the next several hours especially in southern parts of the area where sunshine is currently being observed. Unfortunately, most of the rain associated with this system appears to be headed for southern New England. This is good if you have outdoor plans today, but bad for our current drought situation. Precipitation chances will be highest in southern NH (closer to the low) and up in the mountains where a few afternoon showers/storms could pop up.

High temps will range from 75 in the north, right along the midcoast, and in southwestern NH to 85 in southeastern NH and the coastal plain of Maine.

-Jack

Warm and Mostly Dry Again Today

Hello everyone!

Today’s weather will look pretty similar to that which we saw yesterday. We’ll start off with a mix of sun and clouds this morning depending on exactly where you’re located. As of right now, the cloudiest spots are across the interior/foothills and the sunniest spots are right along the coastline and up in the mountains. A few isolated showers are drifting through the foothills north and east of Lewiston but otherwise, it is and will be a dry morning.

As temps warm and a southerly breeze brings some moisture in off the ocean, instability will develop this afternoon. This means that we’ll again be watching for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms. These showers and storms are most likely up in the mountains and right along the coastal plain. Without robust instability, a strong forcing mechanism, or much in the way of upper-level wind shear, no severe weather is expected this afternoon. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats with any cells that pop up.

High temps today will range from 75 in the mountains and right along the midcoast shorelines to 85 in southern NH.

-Jack