All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m Jack Sillin, freshman at NYA, snow-lover, enjoyer of the outdoors, and of course, weather geek. My passion for weather began several years ago when I was about six years old on a series of long plane trips while watching countless hours of The Weather Channel. My skills have evolved rapidly in the past few years from excitedly refreshing the radar on the local TV weather page (I’m still guilty of that from time to time…) to waking early to analyze complex charts and graphs every day to produce a forecast. I’m hoping to pursue a career in the NWS someday. Aside from the weather, I’m a big skier and lover of all things cold and snow. I also like to do many other outdoor activities such as hiking and fishing when the snow is no longer around. I can be reached through twitter @JackSillin and via email at jack.sillin@gmail.com.

Turning Cooler Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature falling temperatures as gusty northwest winds bring colder air into the region from Canada. Whatever temperature you’re at right now will be your high temperature for the day, though mostly sunny skies downwind of the mountains will help stall the cooling trend midday. Current temps range from the upper 20s up north to the mid 40s along the NH coastline. By mid afternoon, the mountains will fall into the low/mid 20s, the foothills/coastline to the low/mid 30s, and southeastern NH into the upper 30s. Temps will drop further this evening after sunset.

As with any bout of northwest flow, clouds and snow showers will hang tough in the mountains today and upsloping might be able to squeeze out as much as 1-3″ of snow especially higher up.

-Jack

Mild Weather Continues Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature continued mild weather as another storm approaches from the west. This system will spread clouds into the region from west to east starting midday. Before that, sunshine and SW breezes will push temps well above normal into the mid 30s north and mid/upper 40s south. A few of the usual springtime warm spots in southern NH may crack 50. Precipitation associated with this next system will arrive from the west this evening. The steadiest precip will be up in the mountains where mostly snow will fall after temps drop back into the upper 20s to low 30s. Snow will mix with sleet and rain at times as you head into the mountains south of Sugarloaf, and precipitation will fall entirely as rain over the foothills and coastal plain tonight. Snowfall totals generally won’t exceed 2″ outside the higher terrain and no snow will accumulate south of route 2.

-Jack

Milder Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature milder weather as Pacific air floods the US and Canada and pushes Arctic air back up towards the North Pole. Look for high temps ranging from the low 30s way up north to the low 40s along the coast. Some sunshine is noted out the window this morning here in Yarmouth, but satellite imagery suggests this will be rather short-lived as clouds stream into the region from the west ahead of our next disturbance. This system will be falling apart as it moves in our direction, so precipitation will be confined to the mountains largely in the form of snow but clouds will become more abundant as the day goes on. A few showers could escape towards the coast around and a little after sunset, but impacts should be minimal.

-Jack

Quick-Hitting Storm Moves Through Today

Hello everyone!

Another storm is on the way this morning as low pressure moves up through the Great Lakes. This track puts us on the warmer side of the system, but with such cold air in place across the region, we’re still likely to see some wintry precipitation.

Overcast skies and quiet conditions will be the rule this morning as temps warm from the single digits and 10s as I write this a little after seven to the mid 20s north/low 30s south by around noon.

This forecast graphic valid at noon shows a few flurries breaking out over the area ahead of the main precipitation shield as southerly winds (the little things shaped somewhat like the letter “L” tell you the wind speed and direction, with the long axis parallel to the wind direction and the little notches on the upwind side marking off wind speeds in increments of 5 and 10kts with short and long notches respectively) push temps near/above freezing along the coast.

By 3 PM, steady precipitation will be underway across most of the area with flakes and raindrops just starting to fall northeast of Portland. The freezing line will likely make some inland progress during peak afternoon heating, but I remain a little skeptical about just how far it will make it. There are a couple reasons for this: cold air damming is least effective on a southwest wind in our area (that’s what we have this morning), but a deep snowpack extends well to our southwest, so incoming air is not as warm as it appears. By the time winds shift around to the south/southeast this afternoon, we will be able to tap into a source of warm air (the Gulf of Maine), but cold air damming will start to kick in with that wind direction. Additionally, as precip starts to fall into the currently-dry airmass, evaporation will induce cooling in the low levels.

By the time heavier precipitation arrives this evening, evaporation, cold air damming, and sunset should drive temps to near freezing for everyone away from the coastline. Snow will fall heavily at times for a couple hours around 5-8 PM which could cause issues on the roads, especially inland and farther north. While I am bullish on the cold in general, I do think it will take a while for the immediate coast to cool off enough for snow, so accumulations will be much more limited there.

Later this evening, a secondary low will form south of Rockland which will prolong heavy precipitation near Penobscot Bay and will help facilitate some cooling as winds turn around to the east/northeast once it gets going. So I think that in addition to the usual jackpot up on the southeast-facing slopes of the Whites and the mountains of Maine, the Camden Hills look pretty good for a secondary max in snowfall totals. Keep in mind that snow especially along the coast will be heavy and wet with this system, so take care shoveling.

The system will depart in the early morning hours with calm weather returning tomorrow.

So how much snow should we expect?

I think most spots will come in between 1″ (along the coast) and 4″ (foothills). Strong southeast winds will support totals closer to 6″ in the higher terrain from the White Mountains up towards Sugarloaf, while the higher elevations of the Camden Hills should be able to rack up 4-6″ with that secondary low. Along the coast, mixing with rain will hold totals down, especially as you get east of I-95 and south of Route 1.

-Jack

Quiet and Seasonably Cool Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature quiet weather and seasonably cool temps as NW flow weakens ahead of an approaching ridge axis. The approach of this high pressure means that skies will be mostly sunny across the area and temps will be right around seasonal averages. Look for highs in the low to mid 20s up north and low 30s south. NW breezes will gradually taper off as the day goes on. Get out there and enjoy the lovely weather if you have the opportunity!

-Jack

Seasonably Cool and Unsettled Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature seasonably cool temperatures and somewhat unsettled weather conditions as cold air moves in aloft and creates some instability in the lower atmosphere. This instability will allow upslope snow showers developing in northwest flow to drift towards the coast from time to time today. These snow showers will bring brief periods of moderate to heavy snow and could drop a coating to an inch on untreated surfaces. Temps in the upper 20s to low 30s and the relatively high sun angle this time of year should preclude much if any accumulation on roads, but it’s always good to keep an extra eye out for slick spots when snow is falling. Snow showers will be most widespread in the mid afternoon hours and will settle down as we approach sunset.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy along the coast and overcast in the mountains.

-Jack

Light Snow Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature (very) light snow as a weak storm system slides by to our south. Flakes are already flying across southern and western parts of the area this morning, and that’s generally where activity will be concentrated today. I’m not expecting more than an inch of accumulation this morning through the midday hours. By early afternoon, an approaching upper-level trough and developing ocean-effect should turn up the heat on snowfall rates especially along the coast south of Portland. This may allow for a period of moderate snow to drop another couple inches here while the rest of the area continues to see light snow (except for the northern mountains where flakes will really struggle to make it to the ground).

So in total, if you’re up north of Route 2, expect a dusting to an inch, if you’re in the NH mountains, foothills, or coastal plain north of Brunswick, expect 1-2″, and if you’re in the sweet spot from Casco Bay ish down to the NH Seacoast and points 30-50 miles inland, be prepared for as much as 2-4″. A couple really lucky spots may be able to push 6″ if everything sets up right, but with the recent trend of disappointing storms in setups like this, I remain skeptical.

Snow will wind down from west to east this evening. High temps today will range from the low 20s up north to around 30 right along the coast south of Portland.

-Jack

Cooler and Calmer Today

Hello everyone!

Canadian high pressure is back en route to our area today which means NW breezes, cool temps, and quiet weather. Morning upslope clouds and snow flurries will gradually dissipate, and the entire region should be enjoying sunshine by this afternoon. NW breezes will taper off as the day goes on which means that by this afternoon, temps in the upper 10s north and upper 20s south won’t feel so cold.

Our next system appears to be on the weaker and snowier side, and will arrive from southwest to northeast tomorrow night into Friday morning.

-Jack

Messy Winter Storm In Progress Today

Hello everyone!

A messy mix of modestly-melted meteorological meteors is falling across the area this morning as warm air streams into the region aloft but cold air hangs tough at the surface.

Getting a handle on precip types is tough, but by all available accounts the sleet/snow line has blasted all the way up to the Canadian border already this morning. This is definitely much faster than expected, and thus changes our expectations about how much frozen stuff will fall in various parts of the area.

Only a few spots have reported snowfall totals from the flakes that did fall overnight. Saddleback has about 5″ (phew says the guy who forecast 4-8!) while parts of the CT valley are reporting around 2″. So between what’s already fallen and another inch of sleet, it looks like totals will come in on the low end of forecast, but not by a whole lot up in the mountains. The foothills is a different story though as much less has ended up on the ground already, and precip is falling more as freezing rain than sleet. Closer to the coast, the original expectation of very little snow and much more sleet/ice seems to be working out well, but we will likely end up with much more ice than sleet.

So, just how much ice are we talking? For most of us, I still don’t think this will get to a power outage level of ice storm (0.4-0.5″). Isolated outages are very much a possibility especially in the foothills of NH up towards Fryeburg/Lewiston but most of us will probably end up with 0.1-0.3″ which will make things extremely slick and weigh down trees/branches but shouldn’t push too many of them to the breaking point.

Despite warm air arriving much faster than expected aloft, cold air is still hanging much tougher than model guidance (but not us humans!) anticipated. The York County shoreline as well as southeast NH all the way inland to Manchester/Concord is experiencing plain old rain with temps in the mid 30s. Elsewhere, we are comfortably below freezing and will probably stay that way for much of the day. The exception will be coastal/shoreline areas especially south of route one and east of Brunswick.

The steadiest/heaviest precip is ongoing right now and will taper off from southwest to northeast between 10 AM and 2 PM. With temps near/below freezing this afternoon and low-level moisture sticking around, expect freezing drizzle to keep roads on the slick side (especially those that are untreated).

High temps today will range from the upper 20s up north and in the foothills to the upper 30s along the NH Seacoast.

-Jack

Very Light Snow For Some Today Ahead Of Winter Storm Tomorrow Morning

Hello everyone!

Today will feature increasing clouds and some very light snow as a powerful winter storm to our southwest begins its approach to the region. Morning breaks of sun along the coast and in eastern parts of the area will be short-lived as clouds stream in from the south and west. As we move into the afternoon hours, light snow will begin to fall over the mountains and foothills. Later in the afternoon and evening, snow will expand to include the coastline. Overall, today’s snow should be relatively low-impact and shouldn’t accumulate any more than an inch at most.

High temps today will range from the low 20s up north to around 30 in southern NH.

Our next winter storm will arrive from southwest to northeast overnight tonight into the early hours of tomorrow morning. Steady snow should arrive in southwestern NH around midnight before pushing into Maine between 1 and 3 AM. Snow will quickly change over to sleet and freezing rain in southern NH while the rest of the region gets a solid 3-5 hours of moderate snow before sleet and freezing rain creep north.

By sunrise tomorrow, moderate to heavy snow will be falling across the mountains and foothills while snow changes to sleet and freezing rain along the coast. A few spots near the beach in southeastern NH, York County, and the Midcoast islands/peninsulas seem likely to rise above freezing as the coastal front sets up, but otherwise, I’ll be taking the under on surface temps with a northeast wind and strong cold air damming.

Mixed precipitation will eventually advance almost all the way to the Canadian border as precipitation comes to a close Tuesday afternoon.

After a good look at overnight forecast model data, I still like this snowfall accumulation map. Just remember that we’re all getting an inch’s worth of frozen rain. The mountains will see that fluffed up to 6″+ of snow while the coast will have to deal with a compacted layer of snow/sleet/ice. This will still be an impactful system even where the snowpack only grows by a couple inches.

-Jack