All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m Jack Sillin, freshman at NYA, snow-lover, enjoyer of the outdoors, and of course, weather geek. My passion for weather began several years ago when I was about six years old on a series of long plane trips while watching countless hours of The Weather Channel. My skills have evolved rapidly in the past few years from excitedly refreshing the radar on the local TV weather page (I’m still guilty of that from time to time…) to waking early to analyze complex charts and graphs every day to produce a forecast. I’m hoping to pursue a career in the NWS someday. Aside from the weather, I’m a big skier and lover of all things cold and snow. I also like to do many other outdoor activities such as hiking and fishing when the snow is no longer around. I can be reached through twitter @JackSillin and via email at jack.sillin@gmail.com.

Really Nice Early Fall Weather Continues Today

Hello everyone!

That big Canadian high pressure area we talked about yesterday will sit squarely overhead once again today. That means we’ll see light winds, cool temps, very low humidity, and sunny skies. Expect high temps to range from around 55 in the north and perhaps right along the shoreline to the low 60s inland/farther south. No precipitation is expected again today.

Well to our southeast, Teddy will begin the process of extratropical transition today. The animation above shows how its wind field will dramatically expand and briefly intensify as it interacts with the cold front/upper-level trough to its north before the entire circulation fades over cooler waters on Wednesday.

The primary impact for our area still looks to be big waves especially tomorrow evening.

-Jack

Another Beautiful Fall Day Today

Hello everyone!

The powerful Canadian high pressure system we’ve been watching for the past few days is now passing over Montreal and is headed slowly southeast. Because we’re closer to the center of the high, we’ll see northerly/northeasterly winds settle down a bit today. We’ll still get to enjoy the cool temperatures and sunny skies associated with the system, though a pocket of cool air aloft will support some afternoon cumulus clouds popping up in response to daytime heating. None of those clouds should be tall enough to drop any rain. High temps today will be quite similar to those we saw yesterday, ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south.

Teddy is still on track to move well to our east tomorrow and Tuesday, bringing a period of powerful swells that begin to arrive today before peaking in intensity on Tuesday evening.

-Jack

A Serious Taste Of Fall Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a serious taste of fall as strong high pressure builds in from Canada. North-northeasterly breezes will continue on the eastern periphery of that high, especially this morning. Skies across the region are crystal clear as northwesterly winds aloft push smoke from the West Coast wildfires off into the Atlantic. Temps have recovered quite a bit from morning lows near freezing, but will only top out in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Another round of frosts and freezes is expected tonight.

Meanwhile about 1500 miles southeast of our region, Hurricane Teddy continues to move northwest as a strong category three hurricane. The storm is expected to hit Nova Scotia as an extremely powerful extratropical cyclone on Tuesday. Its impacts to our area look to come primarily in the form of large swells which will begin tomorrow and continue through Wednesday. The peak of the swell will be on Tuesday when near-shore breaking waves at exposed locations will exceed 10-15 feet. That’s very unusual for our area! Even more unusual is that this swell will come with an offshore wind so breakers will be clean instead of the jumbled surges of foam we see with a winter storm. Either way, it’ll be worth your while to find a spot to observe these waves from a safe distance.

-Jack

Cool Air Surges Into The Region Today, Teddy Still Bears Watching

Hello everyone!

A strong cold front moved through the region last night which means cool air is on the way for today. The high pressure system responsible for this cool air is on the stronger side, and the remnants of Hurricane Sally are moving by to our south, so northerly winds will get fairly gusty today. I wouldn’t expect to see widespread tree/power issues but a few spotty outages can’t be ruled out. Most of the region is stuck under a low/mid-level cloud deck this morning, but that should clear out by midday. Sunny skies will then be the rule across the area, though that won’t exactly do much for our temperatures. Look for highs in the mid 50s up north and the mid 60s in the south.

Meanwhile well to our south, Major Hurricane Teddy still bears watching this morning.

We’re not pawsitivly certain where this one will end up, but it looks to be in our general vicinity on Tuesday. The current NHC forecast is shown above and takes the storm into Nova Scotia as a powerful but barely extratropical hurricane. While we’ll certainly have to watch for any shifts west in the forecast track, at this point I do not expect the storm’s worst impacts to spread into our area. That said, we will likely see a period of breezy winds (potentially enough for power outages) as well as potentially some rain. The biggest story though will be the massive waves the cyclone looks to push our way starting on Sunday-Monday. Some of the wave forecasts are pretty incredible, especially if the storm becomes cut-off from the jet stream and meanders over the outer Gulf of Maine for a day or two. So for the pro surfers, wax up your boards and get stoked. For the rest of us, stay well away from the ocean!

-Jack

Another Cold Front Slides Through Today As We Begin Watching Hurricane Teddy

Hello everyone!

Yet another cold front is headed into our region this morning and will cross the area over the next several hours. There is a patch of low/mid-level clouds associated with the front but so far I don’t see any evidence of precipitation on radar. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a brief shower as this front passes through, but otherwise, it’s yet another dry day in New England. Sunshine will be seen both ahead of and behind the front (early morning and later afternoon/evening) with a period of overcast in between.

Breezy WSW winds ahead of the front combined with warmer air aloft will support warmer temps downwind of the mountains today. Highs there will rise into the low 80s. Up in the mountains, upsloping will keep clouds around while the cooler airmass pours in so highs will be much cooler, in the upper 50s.

Normally, this would conclude my discussion for the morning. However, we’re in the unusual position of having to think about potential impacts from a tropical cyclone in about five days. Since you’re going to inevitably hear about Teddy on TV or online, it’s worth addressing a little bit here so you have some context for the forthcoming discussions about the system.

Hurricane Teddy is currently located well east of the Lesser Antilles and is a Category Two hurricane as of the latest National Hurricane Center update. The storm is trying to clear out its eye, which means that it’s likely to be upgraded to a Category Three storm later today. I could go on at somewhat great lengths about all the meteorological dynamics seen in this satellite loop, but that’s not really the point of these updates. The biggest thing you should note is the big red blob northwest of the storm. That’s mid-level dry air that might slow Teddy down a bit in the coming days.

Today through Sunday, Teddy will be stuck on a heading that’s more or less due northwest. This is the official NHC forecast for the storm over the next three days. On Sunday night, the storm could impact Bermuda exactly one week after the island took a direct hit from Hurricane Paulette. This would not be the first time the island took back-to-back hits from tropical cyclones in such a short time. The last such occurrence was back in 2014.

So what happens after Bermuda?

That’s the big question isn’t it. This animation shows the general idea without getting too deep into the meteorological weeds. Basically, the storm turns north somewhere around Bermuda. It wants to go out to sea, but a ridge of high pressure over Newfoundland and an upper-level low off the North Carolina coast may try to steer it back to the northwest in our direction.

Right now, I’m inclined to think that the range of reasonably possible outcomes for this storm is somewhere between something that feels like a strong nor’easter and a nice day but with big ocean swells. Our region is absolutely vulnerable to major hurricane impacts, but to put this storm into that league (i.e. something more impactful than a strong winter storm), it would need to retain part of its inner core. If the storm was racing up the East Coast from the Bahamas, it would have access to a lot more warm water to keep its core alive than the current forecast which is for the storm to back in from the southeast. That’s not to say it couldn’t happen with Teddy but right now, I’m skeptical.

My advice to you is the same advice I’ve given to a few friends and family here along the Maine coast: keep an eye on Teddy and think a little bit about what you might need to do this weekend if it still looks like the storm might head in our direction. Even if we wind up with impacts that are akin to some of our winter storms, your preparations for strong winds and heavy rain might look different in September than they do in January.

I will have many more updates on Teddy in the days to come, especially if it looks like we might actually get some wind/rain out of it.

-Jack

Hazy But Otherwise Quiet Today

Hello everyone!

Hazy conditions will continue across the region today due to a thick layer of smoke from wildfires on the West Coast that has blown east over the past few days. Thankfully, the smoke is about 15,000 to 20,000 feet above our heads, so there won’t be any air quality issues in our area. That said, it’s still pretty eerie to have not a cloud in the sky but still be unable to see your shadow at high noon…

The smoke is thick enough to dim the sun a bit so high temps will be cooler than otherwise expected today, ranging from the upper 60s up north and along the Midcoast to the low/mid 70s in interior SW parts of the area.

The smoke plume shows up clearly on satellite imagery this morning along with Hurricane Sally in the bottom left near the Gulf Coast and Hurricane Paulette on the right southeast of Newfoundland.

Thankfully, at least for the next five days, our area won’t see any impacts from any of the seven (!!) tropical systems in the Atlantic. We will have to keep an eye on Hurricane Teddy though as it looks to wander towards the northwestern Atlantic early next week. At the moment, it’s not something to be concerned about but I can’t guarantee that won’t change.

-Jack

Cool Early Fall Weather Today

Hello everyone!

Yesterday’s northerly breezes ahead of an approaching area of Canadian high pressure pushed cooler and drier air into the region. Today, that high will be directly overhead. That means clear skies, cool temps, and generally light winds.Highs will range from the upper 50s up north to near 70 in southern NH.

There’s not much else to say about what the atmosphere is up to in our area today, but there is some news from the ocean.

Hurricane Paulette is racing out to sea about five hundred miles to our southeast this morning. That means that powerful long-period swells will arrive in our waters today. These swells will present serious hazards to mariners especially near shore, as well as an extreme rip current danger for those at/near area beaches. They’ll also be pretty awesome to watch break on the rocks if you find the fight spot to observe them safely.

-Jack

Another Shot of Cool Air Arrives Today

Hello everyone!

Another cold front is crossing the region this morning which means we’ll get another shot of cool air starting this afternoon. As the front passes by, you won’t notice any showers but you will notice northwesterly breezes pick up this morning. Those breezes will help keep the mountains somewhat socked in the clouds while the coastal plain basks in the lovely mid-September sun. High temps will vary accordingly with mid/upper 50s up north and mid/upper 70s in the south. No precipitation is expected today.

-Jack

Cool and Pleasant Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cool temps and pleasant weather as Canadian high pressure arrives from the north. Northerly breezes yesterday brought this delightful new airmass into the region, and I suspect you might find the air outside a bit chilly if you happen to step out the door first thing this morning. Isn’t that a nice feeling. Aside from a few high clouds spilling into the region from a storm out in Minnesota, skies will be clear across the region today. High temps will range from around 60 in the north to around 70 in the south.

Get outside and enjoy the lovely weather if you get the chance!

-Jack

Cooler and Drier Air Returns Today

Hello everyone!

A cold front snuck through the region last night which means we’re now on the pleasant side of the boundary where cooler temps and much lower dew points can be found. Northerly breezes will be responsible for pushing that cool air into the region today, and they may be a bit gusty especially this morning. That said, I’m not expecting gusts to reach the threshold for concern about power outages.

While the surface cold front has pushed through the region, the mid-level cold front is still moving through Quebec. That means we’ll have to deal with some mid-level cloud cover for a couple hours this morning before sunshine arrives. By this evening though, everyone should be enjoying clear skies. Outside of an isolated shower in the mountains associated with upsloping and that mid-level cold front, today will feature continued dry weather.

High temps will range from the upper 50s up north to near 70 in southern NH.

-Jack