Another Messy Storm Wednesday

Hello everyone!

A quick update tonight on the next messy storm in the lineup which arrives Wednesday. This one looks to be a fairly simple storm with mountain snow/mix, inland snow/mix/rain and coastal mix/rain. The challenge, as always, will be to pinpoint exactly where those transition spots will set up. The actual storm looks to track right over us and any nudge in the track would result in big changes to the forecast.

12Z GFS Showing The Setup Wednesday Morning. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing The Setup Wednesday Morning. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Low pressure that passed north of the region today left a cold front behind and that is currently sitting across the region this evening. Low pressure will develop along the front to our SW tomorrow and will move into our area overnight Wednesday. The low currently looks to track right over the area which means that we get the best of both worlds depending on location. The low passes south of the mountains so they get mainly snow with some respectable amounts possible especially the farther NW you go. The low looks to pass over the foothills so they get the full house of snow, sleet, ice, and rain. The low passes NW of the coast so they get the warm rain treatment. The exact lines between these zones are still blurry and will remain that way until things start playing out Wednesday morning.

12Z GFS Showing The Upper Level Setup Wednesday Evening
12Z GFS Showing The Upper Level Setup Wednesday Evening. Image Credit: Accuweather

The trick to this forecast will be temps aloft. The mid level low will track over the mountains which should let them stay mostly snow. Farther south, even the foothills are on the warm side of the low which means that the stage is set for mixed precip likely in the form of freezing rain. Significant accumulations are not expected but there will likely be widespread slick spots away from the coast Wednesday. Should the track of the mid level low shift to the north, even the mountains mix and less snow falls. If it shifts to the south, the mainly snow area could shift down towards the foothills. Both options are on the table at this point.

2-29 Graphic 3

Here is what I’m thinking in terms of accumulation for various precip types. The only area that could get a significant storm looks to be the northern mountains. Everyone else mixes with an assortment of precip types.

A coastal storm misses south late week and then a ridge builds into the east coast which leaves us with building heat heading into next week.

Next winter will be better.

-Jack

A Day Of Two Extremes

Hello everyone!

A cold front will bisect the region today resulting in a dramatic contrast temperature wise. North of the front, rather cold air will be building in resulting in below normal highs in the upper 20’s/low 30’s. South of the front, look for springlike heat with highs soaring into the 40’s and 50’s. Because of the sharp temp contrast, more clouds will be out and about today but some sun is definitely expected.

-Jack

Clearing And Cooling Today

Hello everyone!

Our cold front has moved through and now it’s time to experience the final season given to us by our storm: fall. Temps will be falling today and we’re currently starting a few degrees on either side of freezing depending on location. By the end of the day, we’ll be a few degrees on either side of 15 or so, colder north, warmer south. Skies will be mainly cloudy in the north where upsloping could keep a few snow showers around. In the south, downsloping will act to clear skies out resulting in mainly sunny conditions.

-Jack

AM Thunderstorms Clear To PM Rain/Snow

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a wild day of weather as a decaying storm passes just to our west. Thunderstorms are cranking through the region this morning though they should clear the Midcoast by around 7AM. In the wake of these storms, some partial clearing is possible this morning before we get hit by the back side of the storm. Right now, it looks like this will feature mainly rain showers this afternoon and evening though snow will be mixing in from north to south. I have doubts as to whether the snow line can make it all the way to the coast before precip departs but the mountains will likely see a period of accumulating snow this afternoon/evening mainly in the higher terrain where a couple of inches are possible. The foothills could see a coating especially at elevation and especially in the northern areas while the coast likely escapes any snow. Rain and snow move out late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

HRRR Model Giving An Idea Of How Precip Evolves Today. Credit: Weatherbell
HRRR Model Giving An Idea Of How Precip Evolves Today. Credit: Weatherbell

Here’s the HRRR model showing heavy precip moving out this morning followed by lighter precip this evening. Notice the mountains beginning to change to snow at the end of the loop. I expect snow to push as far south as the foothills before precip moves out. Little to no accumulation is expected outside of the higher elevations where upsloping will help enhance precip.

Surface observations indicate some sub-freezing holdouts in the foothills this morning with Bethel, Paris, and Livermore all reporting below freezing conditions. In those areas, watch for slick spots as some black ice is certainly possible. Any remaining pockets of could air could wash out in southerly flow this morning though the cold front is already just west of NYC and racing east so that window is closing. Farther south, record high temps have already been broken this morning as tempsĀ jumped into the 50’s. I could see a few more degrees of warming before the sun comes up but after the cold front passes later this morning, expect temps to slowly begin to cool.

-Jack

From Winter To Summer Tonight

Hello everyone!

An absolute mess is occurring across the region with surface observations showing below freezing temps across much of the interior. With moderate to heavy rain falling, ice accretion remains a fairly significant concern. Freezing rain will slowly transition to rain this evening as warm air noses in from the east. This transition will be slow to occur especially over inland areas. Storm total ice is likely to be in the .25-.5″ range which is in line with my forecast from last night.

HRRR Showing Heavy Rain With Embedded Thunder Tonight Into Tomorrow Morning. Credit: Weatherbell
HRRR Showing Heavy Rain With Embedded Thunder Tonight Into Tomorrow Morning. Credit: Weatherbell

Rain will continue to increase in intensity this evening and the heaviest precip will arrive in the form of a line of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early tomorrow morning. By this time, cold air should be pushed well to the north and no icing concerns are expected. The concern with this will be winds and heavy rain which could lead to power outages and some nuisance flooding respectively. Winds could gust to 45mph in the stronger storms.

Winds and rain move out Thursday afternoon with some breaks of sun possible. Clouds move back in Thursday evening and a little more snow is possible for the mountains as upsloping kicks in. Accumulations should remain under 3″ and will be confined to the higher elevations.

-Jack