A Week Of Wild Weather

Hello everyone!

This week will serve as exhibit A for the old saying “If you don’t like Maine weather, wait a few minutes”. Tomorrow, lazy spring breezes give way to summer showers and storms. By Sunday, the brisk winds of fall usher in the snows of winter which could drop several inches of snow come Tuesday morning. Not a fan of the snow? By late next week, temps in the 60’s are on the table once again along with rain.

Spring/Summer: Warm And Showery Tomorrow

12Z 4KM NAM Showing Weak Instability Tomorrow. Image Credit: COD
12Z 4KM NAM Showing Weak Instability Tomorrow. Image Credit: COD

Today’s warm breezes continue tomorrow bringing in warmer and, believe it or not, humid air. Dewpoints will rise to near 60 tomorrow which will feel humid this time of year. Temps will range through the 60’s for most. The warm humid air will fuel afternoon showers and storms with the best chance for rumbles in the mountains where the atmosphere is a tad more juiced. No severe weather is expected tomorrow but when thunder roars, go indoors.

Fall: Brisk Winds Deliver Arctic Air Sunday

12Z GFS Showing The Delivery Of Cold Air Sunday. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing The Delivery Of Cold Air Sunday. Image Credit: Weatherbell

After getting Spring and Summer out of the way tomorrow, Fall takes over Sunday as a clipper moves through. Rain showers will change to snow squalls as low pressure develops offshore and races east. Winds will be quite gusty as well. On Monday, temps likely will stay near or below freezing as cold air pours in. This sets the stage for the more sizable snow threat on Tuesday.

Winter: Snow Threat Tuesday

12Z GFS Showing A Troublesome Setup Tuesday. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing A Troublesome Setup Tuesday. Image Credit: Accuweather

Sunday’s cold front stalls offshore Monday as a clipper blasts SE from Alberta. The clipper will move offshore Monday night and a strengthening, negatively tilting upper level trough will help it to intensify. Uncertainty still remains as to the exact track of this storm and thus the exact impacts though some accumulating snow seems likely along the coast. Snow likely moves in Monday night and lasts through Tuesday afternoon. Guidance is fairly far offshore with this storm at the surface but the upper air pattern is giving strong indications that this is likely to drop at least a couple inches along the coast, perhaps a little more.

Spring Returns: Warming Up Late Next Week

12Z GFS Showing The Possible Return To Spring Later Next Week. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing The Possible Return To Spring Later Next Week. Image Credit: Accuweather

As we head into the latter part of next week, the pattern is likely to modify a bit. The longwave trough in the east is likely to remain but looks to retrograde slightly west and weaken. A flatter pattern out west will allow for the Arctic connection to be cut off and ridging is likely to build over the area. All that jargon translates to a return to normal or above normal temps by the time next weekend rolls around. Current guidance is hinting at heavy rain accompanying this increase in temps but it is far too early to tell specifics. Just know warmer temps are on the way.

A Note On Spring Updates

It’s that time of year again, the sun is out, the birds singing, and the snow flying (sometimes). Spring is here and with it comes Outdoor Track season. Unfortunately, my practice schedule will not allow for evening updates beginning either next week or the week after. I’ll still have morning updates every morning but getting home at 6:30 doesn’t leave a lot of time for forecasting. While I’ve developed a solid system for time management, sometimes high school obligations get in the way.

Thank you all for your patience and continued support, it means a lot.

-Jack

Warm But Windy Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies, warm temps, and gusty winds. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 50’s south and upper 40’s to low 50’s north. SW winds will be gusty today at times gusting to near 40 mph. A shower or two is possible this afternoon with the greatest threat being up north.

0Z NAM BUFKIT Showing Wind Potential Today
0Z NAM BUFKIT Showing Wind Potential Today

Here’s a quick look into wind forecasting. The yellow line marks the mixing layer. Any air below the yellow line is eligible to make it to the surface. The air at the top of the mixing layer this afternoon is moving at about 40 knots. Being in the mixing layer, this air (wind) could very well make it to the surface. A raw estimate using just this method indicates gusts to between 40 and 50 mph today. However, it’s hard to get full wind potential when the wind has been travelling over mountains and trees and buildings for the last thousand miles. Therefore, the forecast calls for 35-40 mph gusts.

-Jack

 

Classic Upslope/Downslope Day Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature vastly different conditions depending on location and elevation. The high terrain of the north country is looking at 4-8″ of upslope snow today. The lower terrain of the north country is looking at 2-4″. Meanwhile closer to Portland, clearing skies and temps near 50 are in store. Your weather today will be scaled based on how close you are to these areas. Closer to the mountains but not quite a Jackman resident? Flurries and 30’s with mainly cloudy skies. The same works the closer you get to the coast. The one thing everyone will have in common will be the winds. Winds gusting over 40mph are likely across the region. This will mostly be a nuisance but an isolated power outage or two is always possible.

Milder late week.

-Jack

A Raw And Nasty Day Today

Hello everyone!

Today will remind you just how lovely early Spring is in the great state of Maine. Low pressure will be moving both to our east and to our west leaving us with not one but two storms to bring nasty conditions. Rain will overspread the region between 8 and 10 AM south to north and will be moderate to heavy throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. Temps will rise from the low 30’s to the upper 30’s and maybe even a few lower 40’s. Temps this morning may be just low enough inland to see some freezing rain but it should be short lived. Do keep that in mind though if travelling before noon, things could be a little slick, especially at higher elevations. Winds will intensify as well out of the NE making today nasty all around weather wise. To top it all off? Cold air crashes south tonight and by tomorrow morning, many could see snow on the ground, especially north. Gusty winds also look to bring a fairly significant upslope event to the mountains with 3-6″ expected in the favored terrain tomorrow.

HRRR Giving An Idea On How Things Play Out Today. Credit: Weatherbell
HRRR Giving An Idea On How Things Play Out Today. Credit: Weatherbell

-Jack

Another Cool Spring Day

Hello everyone!

Today will be a lot like yesterday perhaps a bit cloudier though. Low level clouds have pushed to the bases of the mountains this morning leaving most of the area with cloudy/foggy conditions. These clouds will limit high temps to the 40’s for most with 50’s inland, also very similar to yesterday.

Rain arrives tomorrow.

-Jack

Clouds Burn Off To Sun Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature low clouds for most this morning as residual moisture from yesterday’s storm is slow to leave. Temps today will depend on how fast the clouds leave. For those who see things clear out quickest, temps will rise into the low to mid 50’s. This is most likely outside the mountains but away from the coast. The mountains and the coast likely see clouds clear out a little later and temps rising into the 40’s.

-Jack