As the weekend looms, so does a weather system. This one will be small by the looks of it but there is a potential for a “plowable” snow. Before any snow predictions can be made, the models need to agree on things; at least a little bit. The models now are extremely divergent as to whether or not this storm will be out to sea or not. At this point, the question becomes how far out to sea it will go. This will not be anything remotely close to the blizzard last week. This will be light to moderate snowfall with light to moderate winds. That is, if it even happens. Our best model, the euro, has the storm barely even developing until it reaches the maritimes. Given the extremely high level of performance the euro has shown with Sandy and the blizzard, I am leaning towards that solution. The GFS has the storm closer to us but still far enough offshore to give us a blockbuster hit. The GFS has a slower solution which is reasonable to me as the storm that will move through dense, cold air will likely move a little slower. I think the timing of the GFS is slightly more accurate but the snowfall shown on the euro is more accurate. In all I think 3-5″ is most likely along the coast and the favored upslope regions with lesser amounts in the foothills. I will likely have another post tomorrow outlining the updated forecast for this system.
-Jack