97L has improved everything substantially in the past hour or 2 and has earned the distinguished title of Tropical depression 7. I will outline the forecast below.

This shows TD 7. Notice the clear spiral bands, the convection near the center, and a more symmetrical shape. Also notice the good outflow on all sides.

The NHC track projection for TD 7 (07L). I expect this to be highly accurate however, there is another scenario drawn up by a credible model: the GFS. This model has the storm moving NNW then stalling and moving due W. This is possible and here’s why. The factor that might allow for a track to the NNE/N/NNW is a break in the ridge of high pressure that steers any storms to the west. When there is a weakness in this ridge, storms are sucked into it like a vacuum. This is what the NHC is calling for. However, some models forecast that this gap will close before the storm sneaks through. Like a gate closing in a spy movie while the spy rolls under at the last second. So we’ll just have to wait and see. I have little confidence it will impact the US with more than a solid swell.

Land areas that could be affected: Puerto Rico, Hispaniola (Dominican Republic, Haiti), Bermuda, Maritime Canada. This list will be updated as the track projection changes. This is just my idea of where the storm will go and who it might affect. For decision making refer to the NHC.

My next update on the storm will be around the same time tomorrow.

-Jack