Hello everyone!

Today will feature  pleasant conditions with sunny skies and warm temps. Highs today will get into the mid to upper 30’s. In addition, expect light winds as we are under a ridge of high pressure that will be one of the ingredients for our storm.

This high will shift NE into Canada and park itself there for the next few days. This will push a clipper system to our south Monday into Tuesday. This weak system will be the focus for a few snow showers or maybe even a period of light snow.

Come Wednesday, our next storm will be taking shape over the Ohio valley. It will track NE towards us but its exact track is still uncertain. There are 3 basic scenarios as with every storm and I will break down each one and where my money is so to speak.

Scenario 1: The storm takes a more northerly track over Boston. This brings a major storm but there would be periods of mix and rain across the coastal plain as well as the foothills. I believe the high in Quebec will be enough to keep this from happening but it’s certainly a possibility.

Scenario 2: The storm takes a track over or just SE of Nantucket. This brings a major storm in the form of all snow. The exception could be over York county at the start of the storm as warm air will be in place Wednesday night ahead of the storm. I believe this is the most likely scenario based on the upper air pattern as well as the predicted positioning of surface systems. There is still room for this to change as we are still 4 days out.

Scenario 3: The storm takes a more easterly track out to sea. this brings another sunny but cool day across the region. This seems plausible but it would result in the upper air trough over the west not picking up on a huge piece of energy which I think is unlikely. Another way this could happen is if the trough is positively tilted or looks like this “/” rather than this “\”.

After the storm, winter like conditions set back in with temps again running 10-15 degrees below normal.

I will be travelling to Canada for a few days this week so while I will do my best to post during that time, It may not be at the usual hour.

-Jack