Hello everyone!

Temps are still very mild out there this morning with lots of areas seeing temps in the 50’s. Some areas are still near or at 60 and some areas have dropped into the 40’s. WInds have shifted to the W/SW and cooler air is slowly beginning to drain in. While temps won’t drop like a rock, cooler air is coming. Highs today will likely occur in the early in the day and reach the mid to upper 50’s, 60’s possible in SNE.

All eyes shift now to our Wednesday storm threat. There was not much change in the overnight models other than a tad father east. This means generally a colder solution with the axis of heaviest snow more along the coast rather than inland.

I am still expecting a large swath of 6-10″ near the coast, but away from the very immediate coast, where lower ratios and some slight potential for mixing could hold totals down. Lighter amounts are also likely in the mountains where precip will fall less heavily.

This is a very tricky forecast for the coast especially. With warm ocean temps and no deep cold air in place, you have to be concerned about mixing. However, dynamic cooling and super intense upward motion along with strong frototgenesis and NNE winds mainly off land support snow. For now, I think that even the coast stays mostly snow. There could be a brief period of rain at the onset but once wet bulbing takes over, temps should cool enough to support snow.

All activity should wind down around midnight or a little after Thursday morning. I’ll be back with another update this afternoon.

-Jack