Hello everyone!

A leftover shower is possible tonight as another cold front rolls offshore but other than that, the next 24-48 hours look to be a continuation of our recent dry pattern. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Cooler temps are expected for Sunday as more clouds and possibly showers are expected to roll in. How many people saw rain today? Not a lot. The drier GFS scenario worked out as a cluster of thunderstorms south of Southern New England kept any significant moisture too far south for tropical deluges in Southern New England and too far south even for light to moderate rain for Southern Maine. Some parts of Southern NH did get a period of much needed rain this morning but much more will be needed to erase the current rainfall deficit which is in the 3-6″+ range. Will we get another chance at rain here in Maine and New Hampshire? Guidance is hinting at more rain Sunday into Monday but I’m skeptical for the same reasons I was about this morning’s event. Most of these doubts stem from the pattern we are currently in across North America.

The general pattern across North America is dominated by upper level low pressure from the NW Territories to Northern Quebec/Labrador. A heat dome is located over the SW US and a subtropical ridge extends to the east of that into the Atlantic and west into the Pacific. The reason that low pressure in the Yukon and High pressure in Arizona is important to us in Maine is that in between those systems, the winds are primarily out of the WNW (black arrows). The disturbance to be watched for Sunday/Monday is the blue line over the central US. Guidance indicates that it will drift NE and intensify as it approaches us. I don’t fully believe the degree to which the models are amplifying it because the pattern indicates that it will tend to zoom south and out to sea just like the disturbance before it did this morning. Now, I do believe we have a better chance of rain Sunday/Monday than we did this morning because of the little pocket of calm winds this disturbance is currently sitting in (red lines). The NW flow is being diverted around the disturbance and so it won’t feel the full effects of the NW winds. This makes me think that we have a better chance to get at least a little moisture up here, perhaps enough to drop a quarter or half inch of much needed rain in the form of widespread showers or possibly even some steady rain.

More details will become available in the coming days and this remains a fairly uncertain forecast so if you have outdoor plans Sunday or Monday, I would simply keep an eye and ear out for the latest info in the coming days before making a decision.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies as we sit in between two fronts. The front from last night is stalled just offshore and a low is developing on its southern end just offshore of NYC. That low will scoot ENE today and we will be on its far northern fringe. It will bring the chance for showers this morning especially along the coast and across the southern half of NH. It will be moving out by early afternoon if not before.

Here is the 7 AM observed satellite/radar along with surface winds to show the fronts. As you can see, there are showers across southern NH and far SW ME associated with the southern front/surface low. Also note, however, that there are a few sprinkles popping up ahead of another cold front that is drifting in from the west. These sprinkles will become more numerous as the day goes on with a few full fledged showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm expected by afternoon.

The HRRR model does a good job of showing the general setup this afternoon with scattered showers and storms across the area at 2 PM. Don’t look at models like this to determine exactly which town a storm will hit (that’s impossible), but do look at them to get an overall idea for what the setup is. In this case the setup favors scattered showers possibly with a rumble or two in the stronger cells developing mid morning and slowly drifting towards the coast by mid to late afternoon. Some sun is also possible this afternoon and into this evening especially in NW areas.

Highs will be sitting a few degrees on either side of 80 with fairly uniform temps across the area today.

More rain is possible at some point either late in the weekend or early next week. More on that as we get closer.

-Jack