Tropical moisture is on the way for today as S/SW winds bring an airmass straight from the Gulf of Mexico right into our neck of the woods. The leading edge of this airmass is marked by a round of showers and storms currently over Southern New Hampshire moving into far SW Maine. Behind this batch of showers, dew points are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Precipitable water values (PWATs) are in excess of 2″. All this to say, there’s a lot of water in the sky just waiting to fall down.
Sadly, most of the falling down will be done from Friday through Sunday and we have clouds and only light/moderate showers today and a scorcher tomorrow before we can begin to start putting a dent in the drought.
8:15 AM Observations, Satellite, And Radar
Satellite and radar this morning clearly show the band of showers that will impact Southern NH and Southern/coastal ME this morning. Also to note is the little batch of sunny skies over far Northern areas. This will allow for marginal destabilization of the atmosphere by this afternoon. As a cold front drifts in our direction, expect some widely scattered showers and storms to pop up this afternoon/evening. While it doesn’t look like the atmosphere will become unstable enough for severe storms up there, one or two strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out.
Highs today will rise into the low to mid 80’s for most with a few upper 70’s along the midcoast.
I’ll have more on this weekend’s rain threat in this evening’s blog post.
Warm and dry conditions today will give way to increasingly hot and humid weather as we head towards the latter part of the week. By Thursday and Friday, heat indexes could soar above 100. Dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 70’s which means that not only will it feel oppressively humid, there will also be tons of moisture in the air. A cold front will stall over us tomorrow and weak waves will begin to ride along it Friday. Each wave will push the front slightly farther south and by the middle of next week, we will again be dry and cool.
Current 4:30 PM Conditions Verifying Today’s Forecast
Today’s forecast worked out pretty well with temps largely in the 70’s with some 80’s in SW ME and NH. Temps warmed up a little more than forecast over S NH where a few 90’s were reported. The sea breeze developed as expected and brought slightly cooler temps to the coastline and adjacent inland areas. It did stay dry today, as forecast, but there were a few more cirrus clouds than expected. Overall, not a great forecast, but not a huge bust either.
12Z 4km NAM Giving An Idea Of What The Radar Could Look Like Tomorrow Afternoon. Image Credit: Weatherbell
Some showers and thunderstorms currently over Ohio will be moving NE into NY tonight. By tomorrow morning, they will be entering Western New England en route to ME and NH. There will be two chances for precip. The first will involve showers and embedded thunder in the morning. This round will be steadiest and heaviest over southern areas. The second round will be scattered showers and storms that develop with daytime heating and ahead of the approaching front. The second round will be more scattered in nature but also stronger with heavy rain and some gusty winds possible in the stronger cells. All activity will die off towards the evening as the front settles over the region and daytime heating is lost. Highs tomorrow will be similar to those today but the noticeable change will be in dew points which will rise into the upper 60’s making the low 80’s feel quite a bit more uncomfortable than today.
Thursday will be our hottest day with highs in the low to mid 90’s and stifling dew points in the low to mid 70’s. These two factors will combine to create heat index values right around the century mark in southern areas. There are some hints that SW NH could see heat indexes of 105 though that seems to be the upper edge of the guidance range. Do keep in mind that heat index values >95 are dangerous and can cause serious issues if proper precautions aren’t taken. Be sure to hydrate and stay in the A/C during the worst of the heat.
Upper Air Observations From 12Z Today Show The Setup For Heavy Weekend Rain. Image Credit: Meteocentre
Friday will begin a period of wet weather and slowly cooling temps. A trough is digging into the Pacific NW today and will continue to move SE through the next several days. This will amp up the flow by turning winds SW as a ridge builds downstream (near Bermuda) in response to the trough. The S/SW winds ahead of the trough and behind the ridge will carry tropical moisture associated with the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico northward. Meanwhile to our north, a seasonably strong storm over Hudson Bay will drive a cold front south into the area tomorrow which will stall over us for the weekend. Several waves of low pressure will ride along the front bringing enhanced rain and shifting the front a little south each time they pass.
12Z GFS Giving An Overview Of This Week’s Weather
The 12Z GFS does a good job highlighting the main trends of the week although I disagree with some of its specifics. Heat and humidity peak Thursday and Friday (pink box) before clouds and showers slowly cool temps heading into next week. Waves of low pressure enhance rains periodically (green bars) but each wave pulls the front a little south leaving us less and less moisture (notice how each successive cluster of bars is smaller). Remember, on this graphic time moves from right to left with the far right side representing now and the far left, a week from now.
12Z GFS Showing The Front And Waves Along It Friday Evening
Confidence in the general pattern and setup is high but the details are still fairly uncertain. The biggest question is where exactly the front sets up. If it sets up even a little bit to our south, we could be robbed of beneficial rains. If it sets up to our north, we will have even more moisture available and bigger rains are possible. A stronger disturbance aloft and low at the surface will bring an end to the rains by the middle of next week though it could be drier sooner should the front end up sliding a little farther south. Temps will be gradually cooling as cool air from Canada gradually tries to filter in on the north side of the front. The large scale pattern would support more rain by next weekend but being so far out, the details on that are obviously a bit hazy.
More in the coming days. As a bit of a programming note, I won’t have updates from Friday evening through Sunday evening as I will be in the Catskill mountains on a brief hiatus before preseason starts on Monday. During that time, please revert to your primary source for weather information, whether that be the NWS or local media.
Today will feature our last taste of bearable weather before oppressive heat and humidity moves in for the latter half of this week and into this weekend. Look for mainly clear skies, mild temps, and dry dew points today. Highs will be similar to yesterday’s with mid to upper 70’s for most and a few low 80’s across SW areas. A sea breeze will develop early and push well inland which will be refreshing for many within 30-40 miles of the coastline. No showers are expected as yesterday’s disturbance has now moved well to our east.
I’ll have more info on the upcoming heat and humidity as well as the threat for tropical heavy rains in this evening’s update.
Friday’s record high of 94 in Portland not uncomfortable enough for you? Try those same temps in the low to mid 90’s but with dew points at or over 70. That’s where we’re headed by Friday. The good news? That soupy air will have plenty of water in it to ease our drought if conditions are right. A welcome rainy period is likely for the weekend. Exactly how much rain falls, when it falls, were it falls, and how heavy it will fall are all questions that can’t be answered today but they’re questions that we hope to figure out over the next few days.
12Z 12km NAM Showing Wednesday’s Cold Front
Tomorrow looks cool and dry once again and it’s not until Wednesday that we see the chance for some more showers. A cold front will be drifting into the area from the NW as a surge of tropical moisture gathers to our south. The cold front won’t make a ton of progress as the heat builds to the south and by Thursday, the front will be right on top of Northern New England and temps will be climbing. In terms of storm chances Wednesday, they look limited. Right now, it appears as though thunderstorms over Southern New England will rob our area of moisture and as the front weakens, there won’t be enough of a trigger to squeeze the remaining moisture out of the air. Some showers are possible across northern areas which will be closer to the better forcing.
12Z GFS Giving An Overview Of This Week’s Weather
The 12Z GFS paints a fairly good picture in terms of the overview for this week. Warming temps are in store with mainly sunny skies until Friday. Some clouds and the chance for a shower exists Wednesday but otherwise clear and warming will be the name of the game. Heat and humidity is at its worst Friday before clouds and rain move in and cool things off for the weekend. Off and on rain, sometimes possibly heavy, is likely until early next week. Details on that will become available in the coming days as things become more clear.
Current Conditions At 5PM Verifying The Forecast For Today
In terms of how today’s forecast went, the temps were just about right on but I underestimated how much moisture was left in the atmosphere for clouds and showers which ended up developing over the mountains and moving SE in a little cluster. They will slowly weaken and drift SE as daytime heating becomes less powerful. Clear skies are likely for viewing the Perseid meteor shower tonight. As an aside, it will be extra awesome this year because of Jupiter’s gravity warping the debris field. For more info, check out this article from space.com.
A pretty straightforward forecast today as yesterday’s showers are long gone. Skies will be clear, winds light out of the NW, and temps cool. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 70’s for most with some low 80’s in the interior SW warm spots. Dew points continue to look cool and dry making today about as good as it can get in August.
We have one more day like today in the forecast for tomorrow before we descend into Hazy, Hot, and Humid conditions by Thursday. Rain continues to look likely this weekend at some point, I’ll take a harder look at that in the coming evenings.
I have a quick break between Beach to Beacon this morning (awesome!) and heading north to Katahdin tonight so I figured I’d sneak in an update to bring you up to speed on how things look for severe storms today as well as a more detailed look at tomorrow’s forecast as I will be up and hiking early, thus unable to post.
1:15 PM Radar And Satellite
I’ll start out with the short forecast for those who just want to know what the weather will be. The why behind the what will be explained in full detail below. Temps are on track to rise into the mid to upper 80’s for most with low to mid 80’s along the island and peninsulas. Some low 80’s are also likely across far northern areas where some thunderstorms have already gone through. Showers and storms move through over the next several hours from NW to SE. The main threats from these storms will be strong winds, heavy rain, and lightning. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!
A dry and mild night is in the cards tonight with temps sinking into the upper 50’s north and low to mid 60’s south. For tomorrow, mainly sunny skies are expected with dry and cool NW winds keeping temps right around 80 region wide with noticeably less humidity. An isolated shower or storm is possible in far NE areas but nothing significant is forecast and most folks will be staying dry.
Now for the why behind the what. What are the factors driving thunderstorms today? What will the rest of the afternoon look like and why? How about tomorrow? To answer those questions, we’re going to get to take a little bit of a deeper dive into the world of weather.
Surface Analysis. All Maps Valid At 12 Noon Unless Otherwise Stated. All Image Credit Goes To The SPC Mesoanalysis Page Unless Otherwise Stated.
A prefrontal trough moved through the area this morning and is now producing showers over NE MA and the Gulf of Maine. The actual front is draped across NY and the St Lawrence valley which is fairly significantly west of where most guidance had it for this time. This was an idea I forecasted in last night’s discussion. Storms are beginning to fire across the mountains as forecast while a lone cell travels across Central Maine towards Augusta. The front will continue to move slowly to the east this evening and storms will continue to fire out ahead of it. When discussing thunderstorms, I always talk about three things: the trigger, the fuel, and the organizer. How are we doing in each category this afternoon?
WV Imagery Showing Both Today’s Disturbance And Tomorrow’s. Image Credit: COD Nexlab
The trigger at the surface is the cold front pictured in the surface analysis above and the trigger aloft is a shortwave over Quebec (orange line) which will be moving ESE through the area this evening. Tomorrow’s disturbance is farther west, just south of Hudson Bay. A 90kt+ jet streak (not pictured) is currently just north of the area and will also be sagging SE as the afternoon goes on. In short: we have plenty of trigger. How about fuel?
Surface Based CAPE Showing Modest Instability
Most of the area is currently seeing about 1,000 j/kg of CAPE with the exceptions being the immediate coast (due to cloud cover and some weak marine influence) and far NW areas (due to earlier convection using up some of the fuel). One important thing to notice is the unstable air even farther to the NW over SE Quebec. That will translate ESE with the whole system this afternoon and will keep NW areas in the mix as far as storms go. The days long debate as to unstable or not has been more or less resolved and there appears to be enough instability to sustain some storms. However, that being said, instability is still modest/marginal. There does not appear to be quite enough for widespread severe storms. The result will be scattered/isolated severe storms with mainly sub-severe storms as well as showers. The lack of deep instability will also impact storm coverage which will be scattered as opposed to widespread.
0-6km Wind Shear
The final piece of the puzzle is the organizer. Will storms have enough shear to get organized enough so that they are capable of damaging winds? 0-6km shear is currently in excess of 40kts across the entire area with some parts seeing shear in excess of 50kts. This amount of shear is more than enough to organize some strong storms. We have our trigger, our fuel, and our organizer which means we are a go for strong storms this afternoon.
Downdraft CAPE Indicating The Potential For Strong Wind Gusts.
Most storms will remain below severe limits but a few could grow strong enough for some marginally severe wind gusts. Shown at left is downdraft CAPE, which measures how fast air can sink in downdrafts (as opposed to normal CAPE which measures how fast air can rise in updrafts), is plenty high enough for some strong wind gusts. Also to note is the drying out of the mid levels of the atmosphere on WV satellite (look at the trigger graphic and see the dry air (black) moving in). This will aid in the development of strong downdrafts by evaporationally cooling the air which will result in even more intense negative buoyancy due to the cooled parcels being even cooler than their environment. However, this development comes with a caveat: the drying aloft will be robbing the storms of any deep moisture. This is another factor that looks to limit any serious severe weather today.
By tonight, the front will be offshore and cooler air will be filtering in on NW winds. Lows will settle into the upper 50’s north and low to mid 60’s south. Skies will be mainly clear.
12Z GFS Showing The Setup For Afternoon Mountain Showers Tomorrow.
Tomorrow will be a mainly quiet day but there could be an afternoon shower or storm in the NE mountains due to a cold pool aloft associated with a lively upper level disturbance (shown in the left panel). It will trigger some daytime heating driven showers and storms. They will be clustered in the mountains and especially the NE mountains (shown in the right panel). Because freezing levels are so low (~10,000 feet), some small hail is possible in any of the stronger cells but no severe weather is expected. That activity will die down tomorrow evening with the loss of daytime heating.
NHC 5-Day Tropical Outlook. Image Credit: NHC
What’s after tomorrow? A period of cool, quiet weather is likely through the middle of next week with highs each day in the low to mid 80’s with full sun and low humidity. As we approach next weekend, however, things change. Some beneficial rainfall could arrive next weekend if everything comes together right, which, as of now, is possible. This rainfall chance will be connected to that yellow ‘X’ over the NE Gulf of Mexico which the NHC is monitoring for possible tropical development. Right now that appears unlikely.
12Z GFS With The Pattern Overview For Next Weekend
A pattern change driven by the recurvature of Typhoon Omais off Japan will result in the development of strong high pressure near Bermuda by next weekend. SW flow on the west side of that high will direct moisture from a tropical disturbance over the NE Gulf of Mexico (shown on the tropical disturbance map above) towards us. At the same time, a front will be draped near the region which could help focus rainfall. Model guidance is quite optimistic we see drought easing rains from this setup and the pattern supports it so while it is certainly not a lock, it is something to keep a serious eye on as we enjoy another week of lovely weather.
I will not have a post tomorrow morning as I will be climbing Katahdin. Please refer to this post as well as to the NWS and local media for your forecast tomorrow. I will be back with a post Monday morning.
Unfortunately the Beach to Beacon start line isn’t exactly a great place for weather analysis so this morning’s post will be brief despite our active weather. For a complete, in depth look at the forecast, please refer back to last night’s discussion. The forecast remains more or less unchanged.
A cold front is draped across the St Lawrence valley this morning and will be moving in our direction today. Out ahead of it, showers and storms will develop, a few of which could be severe. Some showers are already ongoing across the area in association with a lead disturbance aloft. The main round of storms should begin developing over the mountains around midday before they move SE to the coast by early evening. Highs today will be toasty in the mid to upper 80’s for most, some lower 80’s along the midcoast and in the northern mountains. Dew points near 70 will make it feel even warmer. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds through the day.
I’ll likely have more this afternoon here and will definitely be analyzing the situation on Twitter @JackSillin
Also to note: I won’t have an update tomorrow morning as I will be in Millinocket on my way to the top of Katahdin.
A cold front is slowly approaching from the west this evening and will arrive in far NW areas tomorrow morning before slowly sinking SE through the day tomorrow. This will bring showers and storms to the area, some of which could be severe. The risk for severe storms is greatest across far southern areas where the most instability will reside. Cooler and drier air filters in Sunday though a pop up shower is possible in the mountains. Cooler and drier air sticks around for Monday before heat and humidity slowly build back up again for mid-late next week. For more details as to the why behind the what, read on for a full analysis of the upcoming week of weather.
This Evening’s Observed Conditions
Conditions this evening verify this morning’s forecast well with mainly sunny skies and warm temps observed across the area. As forecast, some more clouds are located over NW areas closer to the front. Temps are generally in the mid to upper 80’s with a few overachieving spots hitting 90. Temps up north and along the coast are cooler. Overall, this morning’s forecast worked out pretty well. The only exception might be that forecasted showers didn’t materialize in the mountains.
12Z 4km NAM Showing Scattered Light Showers Early Tomorrow Morning. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The front will continue to approach this evening and a batch of showers and storms currently just west of the St Lawrence valley will be drifting into the area by early tomorrow morning. Expect this batch of showers to be weakening as it approaches and it may just be some clouds by the time it reaches the coast. The moral of the story is that by tomorrow morning, the umbrella will need to be on standby as showers mainly of the light variety drift across the area. Temps tonight will remain in the 60’s for most with low 70’s south and west. The more noticeable factor will be the humidity which will be not too far below the temps. Soupy readings near 70 are likely by tomorrow morning. That moisture will help fuel storms tomorrow afternoon.
12Z GFS Showing The Trigger Setup Tomorrow Afternoon
As I’ve discussed many times over the course of the summer, there are three things you need for widespread severe storms: a trigger, some fuel, and something to fan the flames. The trigger will be the cold front at the surface and an upper level disturbance aloft. The main storm both at the surface and aloft will remain well north of the area in Northern Canada but a filament of it will be swinging through our area tomorrow afternoon. There is little doubt that we will have enough of a trigger for storms tomorrow.
12Z NAM Showing Strong Shear Tomorrow Afternoon. Image Credit: Accuweather
There is plenty of shear around tomorrow to organize storms into segments capable of strong winds. Not only that, winds aloft will be pulling apart (black arrows) which will leave a ‘gap’ in the atmosphere aloft. To fill the gap, air from below will be rising. Rising air aids in storm development and the divergent flow aloft will be aiding in synoptic scale rising air. 30-40kts of 0-6km shear will be the organizer. There is high confidence that we will have a trigger and an organizer for tomorrow. The big question will be how much fuel do we have.
12Z NAM: Slower Front, More Fuel. Image Credit: Weatherbell
There are two possibilities for how much fuel is available tomorrow. Either there’s a bunch or there’s not a bunch. If the front is slower and there is more time for the sun to heat the ground ahead of it, we’ll have more fuel for bigger storms. The opposite is also true if the front is faster. Notice how over Northern New England (NE black box) there is instability on both sides of the front? Notice how this contrasts with the conditions over the OH valley (SW black box). The atmosphere is set up so that not all the moisture is chased off the instant the front arrives. As a result, even with a slightly faster front, there could be some storms. Now how fast do I think the front will move? For that, let’s examine the pattern as a whole.
The 500mb Pattern This Morning. Image Credit: Meteocentre
The current pattern is quite amplified for the summer months. A large ridge extends from New England to Baffin Bay (red line) with an Omega block over Baffin Island (red box). Low pressure flanks this high both over the North Atlantic just south of Greenland and over Hudson Bay (blue boxes). The Hudson Bay low is the one we really care about because our disturbance is moving along the southern flank of it (pink line and arrow). Because of the wall of high pressure to its east (red line/box), both the low and the disturbance have nowhere to go. The high isn’t moving particularly fast because the whole pattern is blocked up (low S of Greenland, high to its east, low to the east of that, high to the east of that, and so on). Because of the blocked pattern, I tend to think that everything will be moving a little slower which would lead me to lean a little bit towards the NAM solution of higher energy.
Of course, even with a slower front, strong storms are far from a guarantee. Remember that there will be showers ongoing across the area tomorrow morning. Showers come with clouds and clouds don’t let as much sun through which means that the ground can’t heat up as fast or as much. A cooler surface temperature means that the difference between the surface and the upper atmosphere is slightly less which results in less energy for storms. For more on how this works, check out my UpPortland column from July (now online as a direct link!).
The greatest chance for strong to severe storms will be across southern areas where strong instability is most likely. The greatest threat will be for strong winds with lightning and heavy rain always possible with any storm, even those that are non severe. When thunder roars, go indoors!
12Z GFS Showing The Outlook For The Next Week.
What happens after the front drifts offshore Saturday night? Cooler and drier weather is in the forecast for Sunday and into early next week (orange box, look at those dew points (green line)!). A spot shower is possible Sunday but otherwise the rest of the outlook looks fairly dry as we continue to grow our rain deficit. More heat and humidity threatens by mid to late next week.
Looking even farther into the future, a typhoon will be recurving off the coast of Japan this week which will set off a chain event across the entire Northern Hemisphere by the end of next week. Tropical moisture will be pooling off the Florida coast over the Gulf of Mexico during the same time. The pattern will be changing as a result of the typhoon so that a high pressure system will organize near Bermuda. The flow on the west side of the Bermuda high will be pointing that tropical moisture in our general direction by next weekend. At this point, that looks like our next chance for a steady, heavy rainfall. I’ll continue to watch it as we get closer.
Our stretch of comfortable weather will be temporarily interrupted today as a cold front to our west draws warmer and more humid air into the region. Look for highs to climb into the mid to upper 80’s across most of the area with the northern mountains and the coast seeing cooler temps in the low to mid 80’s. Skies will start out mainly clear but clouds will slowly increase as the day goes on. There is the chance for a shower or storm in northern areas this afternoon and into this evening but no widespread storms are expected.
More widespread showers and storms are possible tomorrow, for the latest forecast for that, check out last night’s discussion. I will update that with new info this evening.
Cooler and drier weather is forecast for the second half of the weekend and into early next week before more showers and storms are possible with warming temps mid to late next week.
Gorgeous weather today will give way to warmer and more humid weather tomorrow into Saturday. Showers and storms associated with a cold front will move through Saturday. Just how strong those storms will end up being remains in question. Cooler and drier air filters in Sunday while the mountains could see a spot shower or two. Heat, humidity, and the threat for storms slowly builds into the latter part of next week. For more details on each of those, read on.
Current Conditions This Evening Verifying The Forecast For Today.
Today was, as expected, another beauty across ME and NH. Temps are currently sitting in the low to mid 80’s for most with some 70’s along the coast. A solid sea breeze developed bringing gusty S winds to the immediate coast. The rest of the evening will feature gradually cooling temps and mainly clear skies. The north country will continue to run the risk of a shower or two but no widespread precip is likely. A slightly warmer and stickier night is in store for tonight but generally comfortable sleeping weather is still forecast.
12Z GFS Showing Saturday’s Cold Front Slowly Nearing Friday Afternoon With The Chance For Showers In NW Areas. Image Credit: Weatherbell
Tomorrow looks to continue the theme of lovely Maine weather though heat and humidity looks to slowly increase through the day. Highs will again be a tad warmer with mid to upper 80’s expected for most, with low to mid 80’s in the cooler spots (north and coast). Slowly increasing clouds are expected along with the chance for late day storms for northern and western areas. Humidity will also be on the rise with dew points climbing into the low to mid 60’s by afternoon.
12Z GFS Showing The Trigger Setup Saturday
Saturday will be our most interesting day as strong upper level energy drives a cold front through the area. The timing of the front, however, remains significantly uncertain. Uncertainty in the timing of the front means uncertainty in the instability forecast which means great uncertainty in severe weather potential. Remember our three ingredients for severe storms? We will have two for sure, possibly all three. The first (trigger) is shown above. A strong disturbance will be moving through aloft and a seasonably strong cold front will accompany it. No doubt storms will fire should enough instability develop.
12Z GFS Showing Strong Shear To Organize Storms. Image Credit: Pivotal Weather
There will also be plenty of ingredient number two around: shear. Shear organizes storms so that they can produce severe weather. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in excess of 40kts across the entire area Saturday which will no doubt be enough to organize storms if they form and have enough energy. The trigger we’ve already established is well defined, it’s the energy part that remains a toss up at this point.
12Z 12km NAM Showing A High-Energy Solution. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The significant uncertainty in the forecast stems from uncertainty about when exactly the front will cross the area. The slower the front is, the more time there is for instability to build, the more energy there will be for storms and the greater the chance for severe weather. The opposite would be true for a faster front. Guidance has picked up on a slightly more amplified pattern for the coming days which would suggest a slightly slower front. However, there is plenty of upper level energy behind the front to hurry it along. Above, the 12km NAM shows one possible solution: the front is slower and there is more energy. IF that were to happen, we could see fairly widespread severe weather. Be prepared for this solution to happen even though I don’t think it’s the most likely.
12Z 4km NAM Showing A Lower Instability Solution With A Faster Front. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The 4km NAM, the GFS, and the Euro are all taking the faster solution with less instability for Maine and New Hampshire. In this solution, the front would already have cleared the mountains by mid day and would be moving over coastal areas in the early afternoon producing weaker showers and storms. Right now I would be prepared for severe weather but would expect something more along the tamer lines. Even with the lower instability solution, there still is the chance for an isolated severe cell especially in eastern areas. Also remember that it doesn’t take severe weather for a thunderstorm to be dangerous. Lightning is just as deadly as strong winds or hail! When thunder roars, go indoors.
SPC Day 3 Outlook For Saturday. Credit: SPC
Here is the SPC forecast for Saturday which includes the entire area in the marginal risk zone meaning that isolated severe storms are possible. I will have more updates on this tomorrow as we hopefully are able to resolve some of the questions about the forecast.
The Upcoming Week According To The 12Z GFS
What comes after Saturday (right Pink box with high temps, humidity, and precipitation)? A period of cooler, drier weather is likely through early next week (middle pink box) before heat and humidity build again towards the middle of next week. Our next chance for storms comes with a weak disturbance Wednesday (clouds and precip in the left pink box). More on that as we get closer.
Forecasterjack 