All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m a third-year atmospheric science student at Cornell University who has been blogging about the weather since 2011. While I’m not officially a meteorologist, I have accumulated a bit of experience forecasting both local weather (in western Maine and New Hampshire) as well as national/international weather during my time writing for weather.us and weathermodels.com. I also have experience programming in Python, teaching concepts in weather forecasting, and communicating forecast information to general audiences.

Cold With Spotty Wintry Precipitation Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature very cold temps, at least for this time of year, along with areas of wintry precipitation. Snow will fall over northern areas today, sleet in central areas, and freezing rain in part of SW NH as warm air tries to move in overtop a very cold and very dry low level airmass. That low level airmass will be getting drier today, meaning that precipitation will wane as we move into the afternoon. Highs likely won’t get above freezing for much of the area, and winds will be steady out of the northeast. Our next round of precip arrives late tonight.

-Jack

Mild Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature one last day of mild-ish weather before a powerful backdoor cold front rushes in tomorrow. Look for highs in the mid 40’s north and mid 50’s south. Fog is being reported across the area this morning, but a clearing trend should develop later this morning as the sun comes up and temps rise. Later in the afternoon/evening high clouds will increase ahead of our next storm system set to arrive in part tomorrow, then in full on Monday.

-Jack

Milder Today With Increasing Cloudiness

Hello everyone!

Today will feature milder temps and increasing clouds as warm air begins to displace the cold airmass that’s been lingering over the area for the past several days. We’ll start off with chilly temps this morning, but under the strong April sun and with warming temps aloft, highs will get up into the low 40’s north and low 50’s south. Abundant sunshine this morning will give way to afternoon and evening cloudiness as a storm system begins moving past the region to the north. This system could bring some rain showers to western NH by sundown, and those showers will move farther east into Maine after dark.

-Jack

Warmer Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature slightly warmer conditions as the core of our recent cold airmass drifts east. Look for highs to range from 35 in the north to 45 in the south. Areas of dense fog are present this morning, and with temps below freezing much of that is freezing fog. As a result, keep an eye out for some slick spots until those temps bump up a little bit. Outside of foggy areas, this morning should feature a mainly clear start before clouds arrive midday in advance of our next frontal system.

-Jack

Cool And Unsettled Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cool and unsettled weather as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. This disturbance will bring plenty of clouds to the area today, as well as some rain and snow showers especially this afternoon. Showers will fall as snow in the mountains and as a rain/snow mix closer to the coast. Accumulations should remain under an inch. Highs will range from 32 in the north to 40 in the south.

-Jack

Clear But Chilly Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature clear skies for most of the area along with cool temps as we remain under some colder air aloft. Look for highs to range from 25 in the north to 40 along the southern coastline. WNW winds will help keep a chill in the air in addition to setting up our quintessential upslope/downslope pattern for clouds and precip chances. The sunniest skies will be found along the coastline, with clouds and flurries continuing in the higher terrain.

-Jack

Clear Start, Cloudier Finish Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a sunny start and mainly cloudy finish as an upper level disturbance rotates in from the west. That disturbance will bring with it very cold air aloft, while this morning’s sunshine heats up the lower levels of the atmosphere. This will result in a strong vertical temperature gradient favorable for instability. Clouds will form as a result of the instability, and some of those clouds could even develop enough to drop some raindrops or snowflakes, though no impacts or accumulations are expected. The best chance for this will be in the mountains. Highs will range from around 30 in the north to around 40 in the south.

-Jack

Pleasant This Morning, Burst Of Heavy Snow Arrives This Afternoon

Hello everyone!

Today will feature pleasant weather to start the day with temps quickly rising under sunny skies. By noon, temps will range from the low 30’s in the north to near 40 along the coast, but clouds will be arriving swiftly from the southwest in advance of our next storm system, which will pass through the area this afternoon/evening. Precip from this storm will arrive in SW NH just after noon, getting to Portland around 3 PM. While the mountains will see an all-snow event, precip along the coastal plain will start as a rain/snow mix, before changing to snow as heavier bands arrive. Accumulations will range from 3-6″ in the higher elevations of NH to coatings along the coast. Snow will depart from SW to NE this evening before returning to the mountains as a cold front pushes through tonight.

-Jack

Cold And Windy Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cold and windy conditions as Polar air continues to move into the area behind yesterday’s cold front. Highs won’t get past the low 20’s in the north and the low 30’s in the south. Winds won’t be quite as strong as they were last night, but most areas should expect 35-40 mph gusts to continue through the day today. Skies will be mainly sunny outside of the mountains, where upsloping will result in continued cloudiness.

-Jack

Freezing Precipitation, Springlike Temps, Thunderstorms, And Strong Winds All Expected Today

Hello everyone!

Today will be one of those days where you’ll be justified in saying “if you don’t like the weather in New England, wait 5 minutes”. We’ll run plays from each season’s playbook, ranging from winter’s freezing precipitation this morning to springlike highs near 60 to summertime thunderstorms to fall’s howling NW winds. Because there’s so much going on, this update will be a little more detailed than usual.

Wintry Precip

Swiss Super HD model showing freezing rain in the mountains this morning

We’re on the northern side of a warm front this morning, and low level cold air is well entrenched on the eastern side of the mountains. While it is April, and this process means temps in the mid 30’s and drizzle for places like Portland, freezing rain is falling in the mountains where temps are below freezing, something that will continue through the morning hours. While no major ice accretion is expected, it only takes a glaze to make surfaces extremely slippery. The threat from freezing rain will wane as the warm front aloft moves north, temporarily shutting off precip midmorning.

Springtime Warmth

ECMWF 850mb (~5,000ft) temperature forecast for this morning showing very warm air just off the surface

Temps just off the ground will soar well into the 40’s and low 50’s today, which would support surface temps in the 50’s to low 60’s if we could get some of that air to the surface. The big question for determining the extent of warm temps today will be how much southwesterly flow we can get ahead of the cold front. Southeasterly flow will keep cold air dammed against the mountains, but there are no mountains to our northeast. If we can get southwesterly winds to develop near the surface, we’ll be able to kick some of that colder air out, and allow some of those warm temps aloft to mix down, which would result in at least a couple hours of lovely spring weather. The best chance for this, as always, will be in southern NH. Warm temps are least likely in the Farmington area where cold air damming is notorious for holding on to the bitter end. Once the cold front passes through, the turbulence associated with it will help briefly mix down some of that warmer air before temps really begin to drop behind the front.

Summertime Thunderstorms

As the cold front approaches, we’ll move towards our next season’s weather: thunderstorms resembling those we typically see in July. This simulated radar loop from the HRRR model shows some storms developing along the cold front this afternoon, especially in southern parts of ME and NH. Thunderstorms need three ingredients to develop: instability, lift, and mid/upper level winds. We are checking two out of three boxes without question today as the strong cold front provides the lift and howling mid/upper level winds associated with the front are present aloft. Instability will be the limiting factor today, because there won’t be much of it. Certainly not enough for a severe weather threat, but I do think there will be enough for a few rumbles, especially areas south and east of a Fryeburg-Augusta line.

Fall Gales

We have one more season left in the rotation to get to before the day is done today, and that’s fall. One of fall’s defining traits in ME and NH is its strong westerly or northwesterly winds. How refreshing those feel after an August spent sweltering in oppressive humidity! Today though, dropping temps behind the front won’t provide any welcome relief, but the winds bringing those cooler temps in will become strong enough to cause problems. Gusts over 40 mph are expected across the entire area, with gusts over 50 mph expected in the mountains. The higher elevations of the mountains will see gusts even higher than that. These wind speeds will be strong enough to cause power outage issues, so be prepared for that threat before you head off to bed tonight. The worst of the winds will be during the overnight hours, before they taper off tomorrow morning.

Enjoy the weather today, there’s something in the forecast for everyone!

-Jack