I’m a third-year atmospheric science student at Cornell University who has been blogging about the weather since 2011. While I’m not officially a meteorologist, I have accumulated a bit of experience forecasting both local weather (in western Maine and New Hampshire) as well as national/international weather during my time writing for weather.us and weathermodels.com. I also have experience programming in Python, teaching concepts in weather forecasting, and communicating forecast information to general audiences.
Quickie update this morning with a few minor changes to the forecast. Clouds are already in place across the area along with a few spotty flakes here and there as precip tries, and for the most part fails, to break through some very dry air. Precip should finally break through the dry air early this afternoon with snow breaking out from SW to NE between 12 and 3 PM. Precip will be rain at the immediate coast all the way until the secondary low gets going this evening. For full details on the storm forecast, check out last night’s post.
Another storm is on the way this weekend and while much of the Northeast US sees rain and 40’s for this storm, we lucky Northern New Englanders will likely be seeing more snow. While this will not be a big storm by any means, especially compared to others this winter, it will put a temporary pause on the arrival of Spring.
Water Vapor Image From This Afternoon Showing The Two Features That Will Bring Snow To The Area This Weekend. Credit: SSEC
Looking at the setup for our weekend system, two main features present themselves: a plume of moisture and warm air heading north from the Gulf Of Mexico and an Arctic disturbance racing SE to meet the moisture. How much cold makes it south and how far it gets will be crucial to determining how much snow falls.
12Z GFS Valid At 1 PM Tomorrow Showing Warm Air Streaming In At 2500 Feet. Credit: Accuweather
Before precip even starts, SW winds aloft will be allowing warm air to stream into southern parts of the region resulting in very little snow on the front side of the storm. Winds aloft are far weaker inland and thus above freezing air should be mainly a coastal issue with the foothills briefly getting in on the action tomorrow afternoon.
12Z NAM Showing Warm Air Working In Aloft But Staying Firm At The Surface. Vertical Temp Profile For Augusta, Valid At Midnight Tomorrow. The Red Line Indicates The Temperature.
Warm air will also be working in at the surface but with 1-3′ of snowpack still on the ground, warming aloft may outpace the warming at the surface tomorrow morning so a brief period of sleet/freezing rain is possible along the coast and just inland as well. While this doesn’t look like a major concern, watch out for some extra slick spots tomorrow morning.
12Z GFS Showing A Lack Of Intense Upward Motion Resulting In A Lack Of Heavy Precip. Image Credit: Accuweather
Another key difference between this storm and others this season will be that precip this time around will be a lot more on the steady side rather than extremely heavy. The GFS vertical velocity map above shows this well. Notice the lack of pinks/reds and the introduction of more gentle oranges. This translates to light to moderate precip rather than heavy precip.
Expected Precipitation Type For This Storm
By tomorrow afternoon, the warm air will have made its farthest push inland with temps both above freezing both aloft and at the surface all the way into the foothills. During the heaviest rain, flooding could be an issue along the coast where rain and snowmelt could combine to cause some minor street flooding Saturday afternoon/evening. Any impacts from flooding should be minor but it is something to watch for especially along the coast.
12Z GFS Showing A Strong Upper Low That Will Help To Extend Snow Well Into Sunday. Credit: Accuweather
The final phase of the storm will come Sunday as an upper low dives SE across the area. This will help to continue snow across the area on Sunday which is when coastal areas see most of their accumulations. Flakes will be flying as far south as SE MA but no accumulation is expected south of Boston.
12Z Canadian Model Showing Snow Lingering Into Sunday Afternoon. Map Valid 1 PM Sunday. Credit: Weatherbell
Snow on Sunday will be lighter and more showery in nature but it will help to keep roads slick and flakes falling for most of another day.
Taking a look at accumulations, the highest totals will be in the mountains where the cold air will hang tough the whole way through. Amounts drop off towards the coast with Southern New England seeing no accumulation at all.
Today will feature clouds on the increase as high pressure slides offshore and low pressure begins to approach from the west. Expect at least some sun to start this morning, especially over eastern areas, but everyone clouds up from west to east this afternoon. Precip will not be an issue until tomorrow with the exception of the mountains where a passing flurry or snow shower is possible. Accumulations will be a dusting at most. There is the chance that a few stray flakes make it to the foothills as well but no accumulations are expected. Highs today will range from low 20’s in the north to low/mid 30’s in the south and along the coast.
Another storm is headed our way this weekend, I’ll have another post detailing its timing and impacts this evening.
Many are waking up to a coating of snow this morning as snow squalls moved through last night. Combine a little snow with crashing temps and slick travel is in order for the morning commute today. Temps will be falling for most of the day starting out in the 30’s this morning and ending in the 10’s by evening. NW winds will be making their presence felt blowing at around 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. As with any NW wind setup, the mountains see the clouds and a few flurries while the coast gets into some sun this afternoon.
More snow is getting ready to move in this weekend, I’ll have more details on that either this evening or tomorrow.
Today will feature toasty temps (we’re starting off in the 30’s for most areas this morning) which will climb into the upper 30’s to low 40’s in the mountains and all the way to 50 degrees at the coast. NW winds will help to br driving the warm temps as downsloping occurs to the east/south of the mountains. A mix of sun and clouds is expected with some dense fog this morning over southern areas. A Dense Fog Advisory is out for York County due to that threat this morning.
Cooler temps arrive once another cold front moves through tonight and some accumulating snow looks likely for the weekend.
Another day in the 40’s is on tap today with several areas possibly even reaching 50 in far southern areas! A mix of sun and clouds is likely region-wide with more clouds in the mountains. All in all, another quiet day here in the Pine Tree State and it looks like the remainder of the week will be as well though I’m watching a possible storm over the weekend. More on that later.
Today will feature a cloudy start as an upper level disturbance remains over the area this morning. This disturbance is the same one that brought snow showers/flurries to the area yesterday and so some residual cloud cover is still hanging around this morning. Clouds move out this afternoon as the disturbance lifts into the Canadian Maritimes and winds turn northwesterly. Northwesterly winds mean that the foothills and coast see sun while the mountains likely see a few clouds stick around through the afternoon. Highs will rise into the low to mid 20’s in the mountains and get up near freezing at the coast.
Another day of uneventful weather is on tap today as high pressure once again remains in control. Today however will be milder than yesterday with many towns looking at highs above freezing. Morning clouds will be on their way out for those that have them and sunny skies are expected region-wide today. The quiet pattern looks to continue through this week before our next chance for a storm next weekend.
More quiet weather is on tap today as high pressure remains in control. Temps will rise into the 20’s for most with a few low 30’s along the coast. Today will start sunny but expect a few more clouds by afternoon as a weak storm moves in. A few flurries are possible in association with the storm in the mountains but otherwise, clouds will be the only effect from this one.
No other storms are in sight.
*Programming note: You may have noticed this update was out a little later than usual. The next two weeks are my spring vacation and I will still post every day, just a tad later as sleeping in felt really nice this morning. Late updates will continue through the 23rd when school starts again.
We’re off to a chilly start this morning with many areas well below zero especially in some of the mountain valleys. Another morning to bundle up for sure. Temps rise quickly as the strong March sun takes over this morning so highs will generally be in the 20’s with a few 10’s possible in the mountains where some more clouds will hang on through the day today.
Current (5:50 AM) observations map showing temps well below zero inland with subzero temps reaching all the way to the coast.
Looking into the extended range, we seem to be headed for a roller coaster in terms of temps with warm temps punctuated with arctic blasts. No significant storms are in sight.
Forecasterjack 