Hello everyone!

Today will feature morning snows with some accumulations expected however it will be a drop in the bucket compared to last week’s epic blitz. 3-6″ are expected along the coast with lesser amounts inland. Snow moves out later on this morning as another cold front pushes through.

Behind the front, NW winds will pick up bringing more cold air into the region and this morning’s mild temps (hey! we’re up to 30!) will quickly tumble back down into the single digits and lower 10’s by dusk. Gusty winds will continue as well bringing wind chill values back below 0. Dangerous wind chills on the order of 30 below or colder are expected in the moutnains so watch out for those if you’re heading north this evening.

Sun should also make an appearance this afternoon with clearing occuring around noon from NW to SE. Lows tonight will range from 25 below in the valleys up north to 5 below at the coast. No more significant storms are in sight though more light snow is possible early next week. More details on that later.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Special brief update this evening to cover the next shot of snow that will be impacting the region through tomorrow morning. A few flurries fell today,  as expected, in association with an arctic front that will set the stage for tonight’s steadier snow. Flurries will continue to hang around tonight so some locally slick roads are possible with most of the activity being focused over southern, coastal areas.

My thinking as to accumulations has not changed since this morning so the map remains the same. A wave of low pressure will ride up the front tonight bringing steady light to moderate snow lasting until mid-morning tomorrow. Snow activity will be focused along the coast and eastern areas where 3-6″ will likely fall compared to the mountains which should escape with nothing more than a dusting.

As for the next storm threat, it comes Sunday into Monday and all options are on the table from a big storm to cold and clear. More details on that as we get closer.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Tired of snow? That could be a problem as we have several storm threats lined up for the next few days that all have the chance to bring accumulating snow to the region. Our first threat, is today into tomorrow.

Today will feature some snow showers/flurries as a weak front moves through. Very little accumulation is expected with a coating to an inch expected under the heaviest of showers. Expect much warmer temps today with inland areas in the 20’s and the coast making a run at the freezing mark (the islands and the peninsulas should get there).

However, all good things must come to an end and as the arctic front pushes offshore, much colder air moves in which sets the stage for our next snow event tomorrow morning. A wave of low pressure will develop to our south and ride NE along the front, wherever the front may be. If the front is slower and stalls farther west, the storm tracks farther west and we get more snow. The opposite would happen if the front moved through a little faster and the storm shifted farther east.

Here is what I expect snowfall totals will be when this storm wraps up midday tomorrow. The heaviest snow will fall during the AM commute which could cause some traffic problems. This will be a wetter snow than most of our recent events and some raindrops could mix in on the outer parts of the peninsulas. Otherwise, this is another all snow event.

Our next threat is already lined up for Sunday into Monday. Still way too early for details but there is some serious potential as cold air will be in place and moisture will be organizing to our south. Stay tuned for later updates regarding that threat.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will be calm and quiet as far as the weather goes with clearing skies and highs in the single digits north to teens south.  In addition to cold temps, there will be some wind and NW winds will keep wind chill values well below zero throughout the day. Some residual blowing/drifting is possible as the winds combine with yesterday’s snow so watch for some slick spots and some patchy reduced visibility.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature yet another snowstorm across the area with widespread heavy falling and blowing snow. Last night’s forecast remains very much on track as snow begins to overspread the region this morning. Check back there for the detailed impact-by-impact breakdown as well as timing. All the thoughts there still ring true this morning.

Expected snowfall through tomorrow morning.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Yet another winter storm is headed our way so it is again time to break it down, impact by impact. Below I’ll take a look at some of the factors driving the storm and what these factors mean for the forecast.

Lets start with a look at the current radar showing the storm across the Great Lakes. Snow is already getting close to NYC which is right on track. Snow should arrive here in Maine early tomorrow morning. More details on the timing below the impacts section

Snow

There are several important factors I want to go over before putting out the snow map. I hope this will help you to understand some of the factors at play here and why this is a pretty tricky forecast for many areas.

Here is the GFS Low Level Jet map (courtesy of Accuweather) which helps to illustrate one of the factors that goes into the snowfall forecast and that is the coastal front. We get coastal fronts in most of our winter storms and they are basically a boundary between E/SE winds (warmer air) and N/NE winds (colder air). When winds collide like this (see map for wind arrows), the air has to go up and when air goes up, it snows harder. For this reason, higher totals are expected along the coastal front as this is one area to watch for mesoscale band development.

The HRRR temperature map for 8AM tomorrow (courtesy Weatherbell) illustrates two very important factors to consider when figuring out snowfall. First off is our coastal front I talked about earlier. Notice the extreme temperature gradient all along the coast. This thermal gradient is one of the important pieces of the coastal front and will likely drive heavy snow bands along the coast.

The other piece of the puzzle the temp map shows is the very cold temperatures across the area. This very cold air supports very high snow ratios on the order of 18:1-24:1 which is extremely fluffy. For reference, the blizzard brought widespread 20:1 snow ratios and the storm on Friday brought snow ratios closer to 10:1. Even though not a whole lot of liquid will fall, the snow ratios should more than make up for it.

It should be noted temperatures are not the only factor behind snow ratios, one could go into great detail about crystal type and snow growth (which by the way is excellent) among other things but temperatures are the main factor that drives fluffy snow vs wet snow.

Here is the snow map. Watch out for isolated 14-20″ amounts in the purple are, hence the + sign.

Wind

As with any coastal storm, wind will be a factor tomorrow. Winds will mainly be from the N/NE and could gust over 45mph at times along the coast. The map shown is the GFS wind gust map (Courtesy Accuweather) showing the highest winds zoned in on the coast. Keep in mind the numbers here are in knots so MPH values will be slightly higher.

High winds + dry fluffy snow = blowing and drifting. We’ve been here before and while no conditions experienced in tomorrow’s storm will rival that of the blizzard’s, localized whiteouts are possible especially along the coast where the highest winds are expected.

No sleet or freezing rain is expected to make it up here into Maine though areas south of the mass pike are at risk for sleet and ice which will keep totals down slightly. Cape Cod will mix with rain for a period of time as well so totals will be a good deal lower out there.

Normally coastal flooding would be an issue however the peak surge will occur during low tide so any coastal flooding impacts will be limited to isolated splashover/beach erosion.

Timing

Tonight: Increasing clouds, no snow yet. Travel impacts: None.

Tomorrow Morning: Developing Snow becoming moderate to heavy by midmorning. Winds will be picking up as well which will start the blowing and drifting. Travel impacts: Moderate/Major.

Tomorrow Afternoon: Moderate/heavy snow and wind. Travel impacts: Major.

Tomorrow Night: Snow winding down and tapering to flurries across SW areas. Moderate snow continues across NE areas. Travel impacts: Moderate/Major.

Tuesday Morning: Snow tapers to flurries everywhere, NW winds continue blowing/drifting. Travel impacts: Minor/Moderate.

All in all, nothing spectacular but it will make the snowbanks that much higher and the skiing that much better. More snow is possible Wednesday, more details on that in later updates.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature textbook calm before the storm conditions as high pressure briefly builds into the region. Expect a very cold morning with current temps generally in the single digits above zero with some places in the single digits below zero. Winds are still blustery with some places still gusting over 20 MPH.

Winds will subside throughout the day today as the pressure gradient between Friday’s storm and today’s high pressure relaxes. However, until about noon, winds will be strong enough for some more blowing and drifting so watch out for some slick spots as well as some patchy areas of reduced visibility. These conditions will certainly not be as widespread as yesterday but should be mentioned nonetheless.

Clouds begin to increase this afternoon as our next storm begins to approach from the west. Expect mostly cloudy skies by sundown but any snow/accumulation should hold off until Monday morning. By sunup tomorrow, expect around 2-4″ of snow on the ground. I’ll have a full storm update this evening.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

The storm that we have been dealing with yesterday is on its way out with just a few wraparound snow showers. Any falling snow will end by around 7 this morning with the Midcoast hanging on to the flakes the longest. However, even as skies clear and the snow moves out, we must still contend with its impacts.

As it intensifies, it will pull in a large volume of cold air in behind it which will do a few things. First off, it will make it very, very cold. Combined with the winds needed to transport all this cold in, today will feel absolurely frigid. As a result of low temps and powerful winds, gusting over 30mph at times, the NWS has issued a wind chill advisory for the mountains so bundle up if you must go outside. The second, and maybe the more important lasting impact will be to set the stage for our next storm, moving in Sunday night.  By the time snow gets ready to arrive, temps will be below 0 for many areas with temps going down to 10 below in the mountains.

With such deep dry, cold air in place, when the moisture arrives, the snow ratio goes into the clouds. Snow ratios across MA, CT, and RI will be in the 12-15:1 range meaning for every 1″ of liquid, 12 to 15″ of snow falls. Up here in Maine, we’re looking at ratios of 20-25:1. Needless to say, that is very fluffy snow, so even though we probably won’t get a lot of liquid, snow totals could be decently high just from the ‘fluff factor’.

I’ll have another update with more maps this evening.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will be a snowy one as the second sizeable storm this week intensifies offshore. Before I get flooded with complaints about more snow, the jackpot area of Downeast Maine will get over a foot, so by comparison, we’ve dodged a bullet.

Snow has already started with light bands working their way across the region now in association with phase one of the storm – the clipper. Phase 2 is developing south of Long Island and will be our ocean low which will be rapidly intensifying as it moves NE. Phase 2, and heavier snow, arrives this afternoon into this evening.

Models have shifted our total liquid down pretty dramatically overnight, which is worrying however it is a pretty last minute thing but one to mention nonetheless. Total snowfall amounts will be mainy in the 6-10″ range across Maine with lesser amounts SW of there. Most of the snow will fall this afternoon through very early tomorrow morning. Just a heads up, snow totals across SW ME may end up a little on the lower side of the accumulation range.

Snow winds down late tonight and finally departs before dawn tomorrow morning.

Looking ahead, Monday’s storm looks like it will pass far enough offshore to bring little impact however there is time for that to change.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will be a very quiet day weather wise as we get another ‘calm before the storm’ before our next one moves in. Expect increasing clouds and temps in the 10’s and 20’s with lightening NW winds. Some snow will begin to move in by later in the evening as our next storm approaches. I’ll have more details on that this evening.

-Jack