Hello everyone!
Today will feature weather similar to yesterday with sunny skies and high temps in the 60’s and low 70’s. A few high clouds are possible at the coast and a shower is possible on the Cape. Otherwise, it’s another fine day in New England.
Have a good day!
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature lovely weather across the region with sunny skies and cool temps with highs only reaching into the 60’s and 70’s! This lovely weather will continue tomorrow as high pressure remains firmly in control of our weather.
Rain arrives Thursday along with a cold front. Cool and dry weather return in full force Friday.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will be a busy one as a cold front approaches and brings the chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region. The day will be split in half with the 1st part featuring heat, humidity, and hazy sun. The second part begins around 2PM when storms should be firing aplenty. As of now, it looks like the best chance for severe weather would be along the coastal plain due to the fact that by the time the storms reach the coast, they should be organizing into a line capable of strong winds. As of now, strong winds remain the biggest threat today in terms of severe weather although flooding will be a concern if storms train due to very high PWATS (the amount of water that could fall from the sky if it wanted to) approaching 2″.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature hot temperatures and increasing humidity as upper level ridging moves into place. Highs today will soar well into the 80’s while dew-points will top 70. (Just beautiful weather to run an XC race in, right?).
All this humidity will become fuel for powerful storms on Saturday as the cold front nears. Expect widespread thunderstorms with very heavy rain and gusty winds tomorrow afternoon. The SPC has placed us under a slight risk for severe weather.
Busy weather map today as the front begins to approach the region from the NW. Right now, it looks like most areas stay dry but Vermont and western NH could see a shower or two later this evening. For most of us though, just hot and humid.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature another day of weather dominated by a large high pressure system that is slowly moving offshore. This means that sunny skies and warm temps can be expected region wide. A sea breeze will keep things a tad on the cool side for the coast but even so, everyone sees temps well into the 80’s.
Hot and humid weather will return in full force tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the west drawing warm air up from the south. The cold front crosses the area Saturday bringing cool and sensible weather back into the picture for the second half of the weekend and into early next week.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Last night featured the passage of a cold front which triggered some showers and also set the stage for a lovely day today. NW winds will bring in cooler drier air from Canada. Despite how lovely this sounds, don’t get too excited because it’s not that cooler or that drier but anything helps right?
Hot and humid weather returns tomorrow and lasts until Saturday when another cold front clears things out for a little longer (hopefully until June!).
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature morning fog across most of the region especially at the coast and in the valleys. This should burn off to hazy sun and a quickly destabilizing airmass. As a result, we should experience some decent thunderstorms this afternoon in association with a cold front.
Rain chances will be increased in the Portland area due to the expected development and passage of a meso-low or small scale low pressure. The last time we had one of these, Portland got over 6″ of rain. Don’t worry, that is not expected this time around.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today along with plenty of heat and humidity.
Looking ahead, the hot and humid pattern will return Thursday into Friday with another cold front finally pushing through over the weekend and bringing back a more seasonable airmass.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
The last wave we tracked is not Tropical Storm Cristobal and is moving NNE out to sea. But alas, this is the heart of hurricane season and there is another disturbance that bears watching.
Current thinking on 97L 99% chance it fizzles or goes OTS.
I’ll have another update tomorrow.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
As many of you know, one big topic this week has been the growing problem of “Hurricane Hypesters” (and winter storm hypesters) who make bogus forecasts with little to no merit simply for the pleasure of attracting attention. While few amateurs who do engage in harmful hype, their ‘forecasts’ can attract thousands of likes and shares which can cause widespread panic.
One spectacular example of this happened this week when a Facebook page called ‘Weather Alert Central’ posted a bogus forecast saying the disturbance we have all been tracking would slam into the Gulf Coast as a major hurricane. Well here we are, the timeframe they said the storm would ravage the Gulf states, and this is what we have today.
Can you spot the hurricane? (Hint: it doesn’t exist)
While one computer model did vaguely hint at this solution, many in the weather community, including myself were very skeptical. 5 days ago, when the hype started, I made a post that discussed the potential dangers the storm could bring and many others, amateurs and pros sang songs to the same tune so to speak.
Despite the fact that the hypesters were wrong (they almost always are), it was still discouraging to see many in the pro field bashing amateurs in general. Here’s one quote from the Washington Post’s Jason Samenow saying :
“We lament that armchair meteorologists (amateurs, students, novices, etc.) post unreliable model simulations on social media”
Now I agree that some who fall into this category do exactly that (back in 6th grade, I came pretty close until Mike Hagget stepped in on twitter gave me a little more perspective), but the majority of us are devoted to squashing the hype.
As a 13-year-old high school freshman, I’m not a professional met, nor do I claim to be. I’m just a ‘kid’ who loves the weather and wants to share the forecasts I work hard to make. Many of you know this about me but for those who don’t, I hope it doesn’t change how you see me or this site. Everything posted here is something I have put time, energy and thought into and I am really proud of what has come out of it.
Here’s a graphic I made 5 days ago showing the OTS solution. I’ve stuck with that all along and here is the NHC forecast track as of this morning:
Thankfully, I have been lucky enough to have a Dad to told me to join twitter (yes, really!) and there I have met many people who have taught me a lot about weather and forecasting (Shoutout to Mike Hagget, Bernie Rayno, and Eric Fisher, among others, for being especially friendly and informative!) but I know there is still a long way to go.
I know that there are a select few who give the amateur met group a bad name but my hope is that those who do hype realize that what they are doing is wrong and stop (wishful thinking, I know!) and also that those in the pro category both continue to put those fires out when they start (I know I’ll try too!) and also not criticize, but help out those of us who will one day be on TV/working at the NWS etc.
What I’m trying to say is that despite the fact that some very few amateur forecasters hype up storms to drive ratings or site traffic etc, the vast majority of armchair mets do not fall into that category and it is unfair to criticize any and all of us who don’t have diplomas hanging on our walls (yet) or work at a big name institution. There are a collection of excellent articles about the most famous hypester, Kevin Martin, and his asinine effect on pro mets which I highly recommend reading, but to criticize all of us armchair mets is unfair.
Here are the links to the articles I have found debunking K-marts hoaxes. (They’re definately worth a read if you have the time)
Share This Viral Hoax About the Weather or You’re Going to Die
http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-facebook-after-it-takes-down-h-1604875212
http://space.io9.com/no-new-orleans-is-not-getting-another-katrina-this-wee-1625796314
http://thevane.gawker.com/a-hurricane-is-coming-1624243401
This will be my last post until September 2nd when school starts unless there is anything noteworthy to talk about.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
After a long and exciting evening yesterday, 96L finally closed off a center and was named TD 4. Early this morning, it earned TS status becoming Cristobal. An upper level trough is already starting to scoop up the storm and all forecasts point to a swift and painless recurve.
Here is the official NHC track. If I were to take the time to make one, it would look almost identical.
No other storms are forecast to form in the Atlantic Basin this week.
I will have another post this afternoon about the Hurricane Hype wars from an amateurs perspective.
-Jack
Forecasterjack 