Hello everyone!

Today will feature full sun for most of the day with the exception being later in the afternoon when some high cirrus clouds will filter in from the west. Temps will be cool but not cold with highs in the low 30’s not unlike Yesterday.

Tomorrow will feature a spring-like welcome to the new season with a cold rain, temps in the 40’s and a stiff east wind. Snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain move in Saturday and we’re back in the icebox Next week with the chance for a larger storm midweek.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cool and clear conditions as high pressure remains in control of the weather. Today will also feature the first sea breeze of the year with inland towns getting up into the mid 30’s while the coast remains cooler with temps around 30.

Looking ahead, we have a spring-like welcome to the first official calender day of spring with rain and 40’s ushering in the new season Thursday. Thursday also marks the day when we gain the most daylight.

Winter makes a comeback with snow in the forecast Saturday and more arctic air for next week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today has brought an end to a wonderful spring break for me so I will have an update here every day as usual at the usual time between 6 and 7 am.

Today will feature some high clouds from a strong storm affecting the DC region. As of 3:30 am, DC received 6″ of snow and it has been snowing hard since then. Snow will continue down there through mid-morning.

Another, more noticeable effect of the storm will be northerly winds. These winds will make for a chilly day with highs in the 20’s but wind chills starting at 10 below this morning and rising to near zero midday.

Looking ahead, we have snow/sleet/freezing rain Wednesday followed by rain and temps near 50 Thursday. Warm weather stays until Saturday when an arctic front ushers in more Maine-like spring weather for early next week. Expect highs Sunday into Monday to be in the 10’s and 20’s.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

We finally have no large storms in the forecast as high pressure takes control. I’m sorry to say however, this is a cold high pressure and temps do not make it above 32 for more than a day or two.

There are 2 minor flies in the ointment so to speak. One arrives tomorrow and another mid to late week next week. Neither will bring accumulating snow for many and neither will bring major impacts. Both however will deliver precip in the form of sleet and freezing rain with some snow mixed in.

For tomorrow, expect some showery mixed precip in the south and some light snow in the north and mountains. Snow in the mountains will accumulate 1-3″.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the tail end of our latest winter storm which will bring more snow, and lots more wind. Winds will gust to 40 mph along the coast and 30 inland and this will cause hefty blowing and drifting. Snow will continue into the late morning hours accumulating an additional 1-3″.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a mixed bag of precip depending on location. The immediate coast will see rain while the coastal plain will see freezing rain and sleet and the mountains all snow.

Expect precip to start within the next 2 hours and become steady as the day goes on. Heavy precip arrives tonight. Expect things to wind down tomorrow morning as the storm pulls away.

Just a few tweaks to the accumulations map, models were a tad cool yesterday so adjusted totals down a tad at the coast. Also pulled the trigger on 2 feet+ for the mountains as high QPF and higher ratios will make for a heck of a storm up there.

Snow map

I’m off skiing today so if anything changes I’ll have one last update tonight.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a temporary return to spring with temps rising into the 40’s under sunny skies. As a result, much of the 1-2″ of snow that fell last night will melt today. Winds again will be light out of the NW.

Looking ahead to our storm, models shifted even farther north last night resulting in a warmer solution. This means that the foothills will likely see a period of freezing rain and sleet with ice accumulations of up to 1/4″. Coastal areas will see a period of plain rain.

However, the 6z GFS, something that I usually don’t pay attention to, has moved the storm farther to the south which would result in a cooler solution like the Euro has had all along. This will be something to watch around noon today when the 12z models become available.

With regards to snowfall, ski country will love this storm with the ski areas getting up to 2 feet. Areas along the coast will see anywhere from 1-3″ on the tips of the Peninsulas and the islands, to up to 4 or 5″ in the interior parts of the bays.

Snow map

With regards to timing, expect precip to arrive midday Wednesday in the form of snow. Warm air invades Wednesday evening turning precip to sleet, then freezing rain and then rain for coastal areas.

Ice accumulations will reach 1/4″ across the foothills where freezing rain will prevail the longest. This, combined with the heavy wet snow falling across these areas and the strong winds coming from the deepening low, could cause power outages.

Everything changes back to snow Thursday morning accumulating several inches along the coast. During this time, any water left over from rain/snowmelt will freeze so watch for slippery surfaces.

Cool temps briefly after the storm on Friday followed by a warm up over the weekend and then another cool down early next week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

This morning at around 7 am, our storm made landfall so to speak on the west coast and at 8 am, dozen of weather balloons monitored its every move. Huge super computers all around the world crunched the numbers and at around 11, we weather geeks got to see the results.

The general consensus was a tad farther north with the low. What this means, is that we now have to worry about mixing with or changing to sleet or maybe even rain along coastal York and Cumberland counties.

Another implication of the shift north is that the axis of the heaviest precipitation shifts farther north into our area. This means that southern areas will see extremely heavy precip Wednesday night. Northern areas will see a steadier precip with no dry slot implications. Northern areas will also see all snow.

Winds will also be an issue if the storm tracks farther north as we will be closer to the center of the storm as well as the strongest winds. Winds will gust over 30 mph at times which could cause blizzard conditions. Blizzard may be overused in this event but it sure will look like one Wednesday night.

For a storm to be officially a blizzard, winds must be 35 mph+ and blowing or falling snow must cause visibilities to fall below 1/4 mile. All of this must occur for 3 hours straight.

With regards to amounts, a solid 10-16″ can be expected with amounts close to 20 inches across ski country and 8 or 9″ amounts over far southern York County. I will have a snow map out tomorrow.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature partly cloudy skies and warm temps as we rise into the mid 30’s region-wide. Winds will blow out of the NW at 5-10 mph so while it will not be calm, it will not be windy.

Tonight, another disturbance moves though bringing a general 1-3″ of snow to the area with the highest amounts int the mountains. 40’s and sun return tomorrow.

I will have a full update on the storm upon my arrival in Montreal this afternoon as the disturbance moved onshore in the past hour or two. Models that come out at 11 today will have a much better idea of what will happen.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature  pleasant conditions with sunny skies and warm temps. Highs today will get into the mid to upper 30’s. In addition, expect light winds as we are under a ridge of high pressure that will be one of the ingredients for our storm.

This high will shift NE into Canada and park itself there for the next few days. This will push a clipper system to our south Monday into Tuesday. This weak system will be the focus for a few snow showers or maybe even a period of light snow.

Come Wednesday, our next storm will be taking shape over the Ohio valley. It will track NE towards us but its exact track is still uncertain. There are 3 basic scenarios as with every storm and I will break down each one and where my money is so to speak.

Scenario 1: The storm takes a more northerly track over Boston. This brings a major storm but there would be periods of mix and rain across the coastal plain as well as the foothills. I believe the high in Quebec will be enough to keep this from happening but it’s certainly a possibility.

Scenario 2: The storm takes a track over or just SE of Nantucket. This brings a major storm in the form of all snow. The exception could be over York county at the start of the storm as warm air will be in place Wednesday night ahead of the storm. I believe this is the most likely scenario based on the upper air pattern as well as the predicted positioning of surface systems. There is still room for this to change as we are still 4 days out.

Scenario 3: The storm takes a more easterly track out to sea. this brings another sunny but cool day across the region. This seems plausible but it would result in the upper air trough over the west not picking up on a huge piece of energy which I think is unlikely. Another way this could happen is if the trough is positively tilted or looks like this “/” rather than this “\”.

After the storm, winter like conditions set back in with temps again running 10-15 degrees below normal.

I will be travelling to Canada for a few days this week so while I will do my best to post during that time, It may not be at the usual hour.

-Jack