All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m a third-year atmospheric science student at Cornell University who has been blogging about the weather since 2011. While I’m not officially a meteorologist, I have accumulated a bit of experience forecasting both local weather (in western Maine and New Hampshire) as well as national/international weather during my time writing for weather.us and weathermodels.com. I also have experience programming in Python, teaching concepts in weather forecasting, and communicating forecast information to general audiences.

Warm and sunny today

Hello everyone!

Today will really feel like spring as sunny skies rule and 40 degree temps become common. Some spots in southern Maine could hit 50! Enjoy it while it lasts though as March looks to come in like a very very mad lion. Expect bitter cold to end out February and welcome in March. I do not see any significant snow in our future.

-Jack

Mix changing to rain today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a warm and wet conditions as a cold front approaches. Temps will get to near 40 at the coast and the mid 30’s inland.

Precipitation will start as a steady snowfall but will be quick to change to a plethora of precip types including but not limited to freezing rain, sleet, and graupel (Icy snowy pellety things). By mid to late morning, the coast will be all rain, the foothills will be mixed precip and it will still be snowing in the mountains.

By lunchtime, the coast will have rain showers, the foothills will be changing from mix to rain and in the mountains it will still be snowing. I think the mountains get 2-4″ of snow although the higher peaks will get 3-6″ before changing to sleet around 1.

The cold front hits like a wall this evening with heavy precip, high winds, and possibly thunder. Winds then turn to the WSW and usher in cooler air. Clearing skies can also be expected tonight.

Tomorrow features the last day of warm temps under sunny skies. Another cold front comes through Saturday afternoon with significantly less fanfare than this one.

We’re back below normal temperature wise next week as a piece of the polar vortex heads into southern Canada. Our next chance for snow arrives Wednesday.

-Jack

Warm-up begins today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the beginning of our much publicized warm-up. Temps will rise into the 30’s inland and the 40’s at the coast. West winds off the mountains will make for sunny skies as our new snow melts. 40’s continue tomorrow with rain and possibly thunder. Cool air returns over the weekend with subfreezing conditions happily cemented in place for next week.

-Jack

More snow today, warm-up tomorrow

Hello everyone!

Today will feature more snow and possibly mix/rain at the coast. Precipitation should move in mid afternoon and will remain light/moderate over Southern Maine and New Hampshire. As the low deepens, snow will increase in intensity over Downeast sections.

Snow map 2-19

 

Snow map.

Temps today will be in the low 30’s inland and low to mid 30’s at the coast. Rain/snow will move out this evening into tonight.

Freezing rain will take hold of the area Thursday night into Friday morning before turning to all rain. This will make for a VERY slippery morning commute Friday especially with some towns dealing with a salt shortage.

Cold air returns with some light snow Sunday. Cold air will be firmly locked in next week and the threat of a coastal storm will be there all next week though there is no specific threat as of now.

-Jack

Snow today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a cloudy start ahead of our next storm. Clouds will spread northward as the day goes on and snow will not be far behind.

Snow will overspread southern New Hampshire this morning between 7 and 8 and will move into southern Maine between 8 and 9. Snow will become heavy after noon and thunder could accompany the heaviest bands with snowfall rates approaching 3″/hr.

Snow will taper off this evening into tonight SW to NE as the low pulls away. Any leftover snow will end by 1-2 am. Expect winds to kick up once again as the low deepens.

As for amounts, expect a wide swath of 4-8″ across Southern Maine and New Hampshire while coastal New Hampshire and Massachusetts will have to deal with a mix/rain line holding down accumulations.

Snow map 2-18

 

Snow map.

More snow arrives tomorrow mixing with sleet/freezing rain along the coast. A warm up is expected late week with rain plaguing the area Friday. Do not fear fellow winter lovers! The cold returns Sunday and lasts as far as the eye can see.

-Jack

Cold today, snow returns tomorrow

Hello everyone!

Today will feature chilly temps with chillier wind chills. Highs will top out in the 10’s inland and the 20’s at the coast. Winds will be in the 10-15 mph range with gusts occasionally topping 25 mph. This will result in wind chills at or below 0.

High pressure remains in control of our weather for one more day resulting in mostly sunny skies for the majority of today. Some high clouds may affect western regions ahead of our next storm.

Our next storm arrives tomorrow with some snow. The snow then becomes heavy as the storm rapidly intensifies off Cape Cod. Most of the 6-8″ expected will fall in about 6 hours however confidence is still low regarding when the 6 hours of snow will occur.

Wednesday will be another day of clearing out except snow should start up again late afternoon changing to an icy mix as warm air moves in aloft. This will be associated with a warm front lifting northward. After the front passes, southerly winds will bring in very warm temps with highs topping out in the 40’s.

-Jack

Quiet today and tomorrow

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a quiet day for a change in terms of weather. High pressure is over the area which will cause sunny skies to prevail. Temps will be comfy, in the 20’s, however there will be a fly in the ointment so to speak. This will be the winds behind our ‘storm’. WNW winds will gust as high as 25mph causing the freshly fallen snow to blow around a little bit.

Our ‘storm’ last night was a bit of a dud because it tracked farther east than expected. We got about 1.5″ here in Yarmouth while areas in Eastern  Mass got over a foot.

For those who love snow (myself included!), keep in mind that this almost works to our advantage in that all this snow over the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England will protect us from any big warm up. As the warm air mass heads north this week, 2 things will happen. First, it may not even get to us in Northern New England as warm fronts are notoriously hard to get through a deep deep dish snow pack. Also, if/when it does get here it will have been travelling over hundreds upon hundreds of miles of snow. This will cause it to “modify” or become less warm.

Tomorrow looks to be a lot like today except without the wind. Our next chance for snow looks to be Tuesday with 1-3″ expected.

-Jack

Another storm on the way

Hello everyone!

Today will feature another winter storm approaching with clouds building as the day goes on. Expect to see at least a little sun this morning but things cloud over reasonably quickly.

Temps will be in the mid 30’s today at the coast while in the upper 20’s inland.

Snow looks to move in from the west in association with the clipper system that will spawn our coastal low. Towns like Fryeburg, Bethel, and Bridgton can expect snow to start in the early afternoon. Snow here will be light as the clipper system will be the main driver rather than the coastal low.

Towns along the coast get the snow mid afternoon as the coastal low starts to get going. Expect snow to become moderate in the late afternoon hours as the coastal low moves NE. Snow becomes heavy overnight especially along the coast.

Regarding amounts, due to the fact that this storm is moving so fast, expect totals to increase the farther east you go. As of now, 6-10″ is a safe bet for Portland and Augusta with amounts likely toward the 6″ part of the scale. Upwards of 2 FEET is expected over Downeast Maine.

Snow map 2-15

Winds will be cranking with this storm as it rapidly intensifies. Expect sustained winds to reach 20 mph at the coast with gusts well into the 30 mph range. This will cause blizzard conditions up and down the coast as the light fluffy snow will blow and drift easily. Expect blizzard conditions to move in around 9 and continue through Sunday morning.

Impact map

 

Here is where I expect blizzard conditions. Even if we don’t meet the visibility/wind/time criteria for an official blizzard, it sure will look and feel a lot like one. For inland areas, especially in Southern Maine, winds should be a tad too low and snowfall not as heavy so blizzard conditions are unlikely in those areas.

Snow will wind down Sunday morning as the low pulls away into the Maritimes. Expect lingering up slope snows in the mountains while the Midcoast and eastern Maine still get snow from the main system.

It appears we have more snow in the forecast for Tuesday followed by a dreaded thaw and rain late next week. Don’t worry fellow lovers of winter! The 8-14 day outlook gives us hope as march looks to come in like a lion with a cold and stormy pattern to start the month.

-Jack

Snow comes to an end today, returns tomorrow

Hello everyone!

Today will be devoted to digging out as our storm is now about 25 miles off of Portland with a pressure of 978 mb. Snow continues on the backside of the storm up in the Mountains where the ski resorts are getting a solid dumping of POWDAH!

After getting about 6″ down my walkway with the shovel, it promptly snapped in half signaling a very heavy, wet snow with a nice layer of ice on top. I advise anyone who has to shovel to do it now before more snow falls on top of it later on today.

Wintry mix should change to all snow as the storm pulls away and the heavy band over the mountains pivots south and east. Expect another dusting to maybe 2″ through this afternoon.

Temps will be falling from near freezing to the lower 20’s as the day goes on. Gusty NW winds will make it feel even colder as the storm intensifies while moving NE.

We may see some partial clearing before out next storm moves in tomorrow. The models are taking this storm farther and farther West with every passing run so I’m leaning towards a solid 2-4″ for most areas with 3-6″ along the coast. I expect no issues whatsoever with mixing as this storm will be much colder.

Keep in mind that if the track shifts west, we could be looking at another major storm and if it shifts east, we see nothing but a dusting. Confidence is high in my mind that we will get at the very least an advisory criteria event (2″+).

-Jack

Mid-storm update: heavy snow continues

Hello everyone!

Our storm is intensifying nicely down off the Mid Atlantic and we are certainly feeling its impacts here in Maine. Heavy snow bands are moving through the area with snow rates approaching 3″/hr in some locations with 1-2″/hr rates more common. At my location in Yarmouth, we have 6.5″ on the ground as of 5:45 and it continues to come down hard. Winds are picking up as well with many locations now reporting gusts up to 25 mph.

Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next few hours as the storm strengthens and winds intensify. Blowing and drifting snow will become an issue as well as the evening progresses.

Confidence continues to be low as to where the mix line will set up but the storm is slightly east of the forecasted track, so the mix line may set up farther east than expected.

Temps will rise from the 20’s to the low 30’s as warm air moves in aloft and gets pushed down to the surface by heavy precipitation. Expect the snow to turn from dry and fluffy to heavy and wet as temps warm.

We may see a brief lull or break in the action in the next few hours as a dry slot tries to work its way into the area however its progress has slowed significantly so we may not have to worry about that.

Overall, I still have confidence in my snow map from this morning although amounts may be a hint low at the coast especially Downeast Maine but the change to mix should occur there shortly.

Snow map 2-13

 

Here is the snowfall map from this morning. I still have confidence in this map so no changes were made.

I’ll be back again tomorrow morning with the normal daily forecast as well as an update on a possible snow event Saturday. As of now, that looks to be minor however some models have shown a more robust solution. More on that tomorrow.

-Jack