All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m a third-year atmospheric science student at Cornell University who has been blogging about the weather since 2011. While I’m not officially a meteorologist, I have accumulated a bit of experience forecasting both local weather (in western Maine and New Hampshire) as well as national/international weather during my time writing for weather.us and weathermodels.com. I also have experience programming in Python, teaching concepts in weather forecasting, and communicating forecast information to general audiences.

Wintry precip today

A weak area of low pressure will slide NE off the coast today bringing a batch of light wintry precipitation to the region. I expect very little in the way of snowfall accumulations mainly in the 1-3″ range with the exception of far southern New England where rain will be the dominant precipitation type. After today’s wintry precip, arctic air is going to build in leading to clear skies and very chilly temps.

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-Jack

Video for Monday’s wintry weather

Hello,

I made a video for the weather event tomorrow (I cant bring myself to call it a storm because it’s really not a storm) however, embedding that right onto the blog is a costly endeavor. Here is the link to the video on YouTube.

http://youtu.be/U79lXcbTjzE

-Jack

Wet start, dry finish

Today will feature the passage of s strong cold front that will being precipitation to the region. This precipitation is currently affecting western sections and is moving east. Temperatures today will be quite interesting as they will follow a non diurnal curve- geek speak for when the warmest temperatures occur in the morning, and the coolest in the afternoon. Looking ahead, waves of low pressure could bring snow to the region tonight and Monday.

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-Jack

Dry start, wet finish

Today, a warm front will approach from the south resulting in some light precipitation mainly after 3 or so. The precipitation should be all rain across most areas except far northern areas and the mountains. We will be entering a rather active pattern in the next few days so expect frequent precipitation. Tomorrow will feature rain while Saturday could feature snow. Sunday should be clear before a coastal storm arrives Monday.

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-Jack

Sunny and mild today

Today, high pressure will be in control of our weather with full sun and temps in the 40’s for most towns. Some northern areas will stay in the 30’s but overall it should be pretty warm. Enjoy this weather while it lasts because rain is in the forecast tomorrow into Friday. Beyond that, there is the potential for a coastal low to deliver a bit of snowfall to the region Monday.

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-Jack

Cloudy and cool today

Today will feature mostly cloudy skies as an area of low pressure passes well offshore. I do not expect any precipitation from this and its effects will be limited to clouds and a light NW wind. Temps will be cool but not cold in the 30’s and 40’s. Looking ahead, confidence is increasing that a strong storm and an arctic outbreak could coincide possibly bringing snow.

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-Jack

Wet start, Dry finish

This morning will feature wet conditions as a weak storm moves through the Gulf of Maine. The rain is currently focused over the Mid coast as will likely remain locked there before drifting eastward with the low. This afternoon, skies will begin to clear out and most areas will likely see some sun before it sets at 4:04 this afternoon. Have a great start to December!

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-Jack

Storm now well underway

Our storm is now well underway and it is behaving exactly as we thought it would. Warm air is flooding into the region on strong SE winds. These winds will continue to intensify with the storm. I recorded .73 inches of precipitation this morning and it it still raining hard. I expect the rain to continue through the day tapering to showers as the evening approaches. Winds should start to let up this afternoon but will re-intensify out of the NW overnight ushering very cold air for the remainder of the week. For those who shop on Black Friday, you will encounter very, very cold temps and bitter winds.

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!

-Jac

Update on tomorrows storm

Our storm we have been looking at for a week or so is now kicking into gear over the southeastern US. Rain is spreading northward covering most of the Mid Atlantic states and moving into NYC right now. This morning’s precipitation was unrelated associated with a weak warm front that dropped about an inch or so of snow. That is now long gone and temps today will rise to near 40 at the coast and 30 inland.

Precipitation should arrive just after sundown tonight becoming heavy at times. Winds and rain will both pick up in intensity by morning with the worst conditions arriving mid-morning. Rain and wind will continue through the afternoon with the rain diminishing in intensity while the wind holds steady at about 40-50 mph. Wind and rain will diminish in intensity and coverage Wednesday night as the front passes through. We may see a quick shot of snow early Thursday morning but accumulations should be limited to a dusting at best. Winds will become strong out of the NW much like those we saw on Sunday for Thanksgiving day. The mountains should see some up-slope snow showers accumulating 2-4″ in favored zones.

I expect near 3-3.5″ of rain over the area which will cause a rapid rise in streams and rivers despite a relatively dry October-November. Minor flooding could become an issue with very heavy rain rates Wednesday morning.

Winds will gust near 50 mph over coastal areas with 40 mph winds inland. With the ground saturated from the heavy rains, power outages will become an issue. Winds will increase out of the SE tonight ahead of the storm and steadily strengthen. Winds will peak between 9 am and 1 pm and subside after that. Winds will again become gusty on Thanksgiving but out of the NW ushering in cooler air.

If anything drastically changes, I will have another update tonight but otherwise, I’ll have another update on Wednesday morning.

-Jack

Update on midweek storm-more wet than white

With the storm only 2 days out now, we have a much clearer picture of what will play out over the Eastern Seaboard on the busiest travel day of the year. It looks like the coast will be all rain while inland areas will start with snow then switch over to rain as the day goes on. Even the highest elevations will see rain at some point Wednesday with temps reaching into the 50’s on the coastal plain and 40’s inland.

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This is my thinking as to the type of precipitation. I expect the only spot in New England to see accumulations will be NW Vermont. The big cities and the I-95 corridor will see a windswept rain shown in green while freezing rain and sleet could cause problems in the purple shaded area. Accumulating snow, shown in blue will be confined to areas like State College PA and Buffalo NY.

Rain

Rain will be the main story with this storm as the westerly track will put most on the warm side of the low. Accumulations of 2-5″ will be possible region wide with the bulls eye being over central CT. Minor street flooding could become an issue especially in CT where the heaviest rain will be focused. Rain will begin late Tuesday night over southern areas spreading northward through Tuesday night. Rain will become heavy at times Wednesday as the low intensifies. If you’re travelling Wednesday, expect slow going on interstates 95, 93, and 89 due to wet conditions. 

Snow
 Snow will be confined to far NW VT, upstate NY, PA, OH, and the mountains of the Southern Appalachians. Snow amounts could be quite hefty in areas where lake effect off the northwest winds behind the storm could add to totals. Amounts on the order of 3-6″ will be most common though lake effect zones could see upwards of 8″.


Wind
Winds will strengthen out of the southwest tomorrow in anticipation of the storm. This will bring in warmer air resulting in the precipitation being mostly rain. On Wednesday, winds will become very strong out of the SW gusting close to 50 or 55 mph by evening. This combined with the saturated ground will likely cause power outage problems. Winds will turn gusty out of the NW on Thanksgiving ushering in bitter temps for those crazy enough to line up outside of stores before black Friday. 


I’ll have another update tonight if the forecast drastically changes, otherwise I’ll be back tomorrow.
-Jack