All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m a third-year atmospheric science student at Cornell University who has been blogging about the weather since 2011. While I’m not officially a meteorologist, I have accumulated a bit of experience forecasting both local weather (in western Maine and New Hampshire) as well as national/international weather during my time writing for weather.us and weathermodels.com. I also have experience programming in Python, teaching concepts in weather forecasting, and communicating forecast information to general audiences.

5 day forecast-warmth in sight

Over the next few days, cool weather will continue over the region as another cold front passes through the region Monday night. Winds will increase Monday out of the SW ahead of the front and pick up out of the NW Tuesday after the front passes. Top winds will likely be Monday reaching 25 mph in exposed spots. Late-week warm weather returns with the threat of rain possibly arriving Friday or Saturday. Uncertainty is very high here however so I did not include rain in my forecast right now.

Sunday 10-27 map

Monday 10-28 map

Tuesday 10-29 map

Wednesday 10-30 map

Thursday 10-31 map

Friday 11-1 map

-Jack

Less windy, still cool

Today, the low pressure system that brought us wind yesterday is moving to the NE so winds will relax to about 10 mph from the NW. Sunny and cool conditions prevail today. Rain returns Saturday night but leaves in a hurry so the weekend will not be impacted. Saturday will also feature windy conditions out of the SW. Have a great weekend!

Picture

-Jack

Windy conditions today

Today, a low pressure system is rapidly strengthening over the Canadian Maritimes which will result in windy conditions across the region. In addition to that, the highest elevations will see some up-slope snow showers. Little or no accumulations are expected however.

Picture

-Jack

Cloudy and cool today

A coastal low will pass far enough offshore that impacts will be limited to some clouds mainly along the coast. The big difference you will notice today is the temperatures. It will be a lot cooler that usual especially in areas along the coast that haven’t seen temps in the low 40’s since last spring. Enjoy the cool weather!

Picture

-Jack

Mild and wet today

Today a cold front will move across the area bringing showers to the region. This will also be the last day of mild temps before a long cold spell. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts!

Picture

-Jack

Sunny and mild stretch continues today, ends tomorrow

Today marks the last day of sunny AND mild weather across the region for a while. Temps will rise into the 50’s in the north and 60’s south. Tomorrow a front advances from the west, not quite getting here in time for making tomorrow cool, but clouds and rain will be the big story in 24 hours time.

Picture

-Jack

Cooler, stormer weather ahead

After a prolonged “Indian summer” here in New England, A cool down is on the way. A large upper level trough will steer a bit of energy through the Mid Atlantic and off the coast where it will form a low pressure area by Wednesday. Models then diverge on the intensity and placement of the storm. There are 2 main camps- the Euro and the GFS take the storm to the NNE and rapidly deepen it off the New England coast. This would bring a cold rain to the coast and a wintry mix to the mountains. The GEFS and the CMC take the storm to the E and keep it very weak. Because the GFS and the Euro agree, which they never do, I will go with a coastal low moving NE off of Cape Cod, inside the benchmark of 40N 70W though that will make little significance this time as snow is not a factor other than at the highest elevations.

Beyond this, as the low moves NE, the return flow on the backside of the low will bring in cold air for Friday into the weekend. With this, frosts and freezes should be expected even at the coast. Also, areas typically favored for up-slope snow showers will likely see their first flakes especially high elevations. Due to the high temperatures of the soil at this time of year, little to no accumulations are expected.

Picture

This graphic shows how the week will start-mild with temps in the upper 50’s and low 60’s which might feel a little crisp because we’ve gotten accustomed to temps in the 60’s and 70’s. High pressure will be in control during this time so mostly sunny skies will dominate the region.
Picture

Later in the week, after a cold front tomorrow lowering temps and another one early mid week, the coastal low I discussed above will move offshore as chillier conditions spread over the region. I left a question mark because run-to-run consistency has been very low although agreement is high that the threat is there for a low to form. During this period, coastal regions will likely see their first frost.
Picture

Next weekend, the low moves into the Maritimes bringing a stiff NW wind that will likely produce some up-slope rain/snow showers. That same NW wind will also usher in more cold air that should stay in place for as long as I can tell.
-Jack

Repeat of yesterday- Rain in the AM and clearing in the PM

Today will look a lot like yesterday with the better half of the day being the second half. Rain will exit Southern Maine this morning, and Northern Maine by late afternoon. Expect mostly sunny skies and warm temps elsewhere with the chance for some fog along the coast.

Picture

-Jack

Showery, rainy today

Location is the key word today as a cold front works through the region. In the north, we can expect more widespread rainy conditions while in the south, only a scattered shower is possible. By lunchtime, the front clears the coast, and everyone dries out. Looking ahead, we will be going into a more active pattern with much in the way of storms and fronts. There is a possibility that in a week or so’s time, cold air will dive southward causing a frost down to the coast and the possibility for snow in the mountains. Stay tuned!

Picture

-Jack

Cloudy stretch continues today

Today, a warm front lifting over the region will bring some clouds to the region as well as a shift of winds from variable to definitively southerly. Mild temps will also overspread the region as the warm air filters in.

Picture

-Jack