All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m a third-year atmospheric science student at Cornell University who has been blogging about the weather since 2011. While I’m not officially a meteorologist, I have accumulated a bit of experience forecasting both local weather (in western Maine and New Hampshire) as well as national/international weather during my time writing for weather.us and weathermodels.com. I also have experience programming in Python, teaching concepts in weather forecasting, and communicating forecast information to general audiences.

Sun Increases from North to South Today

Hello everyone!

Satellite imagery as of 6 AM shows mostly cloudy skies in place across the region as moisture from a strong upper-level low over the Midwest drifts in our direction. Thankfully for us, a powerful Canadian high pressure system will be redirecting this low into the Tennessee Valley, sparing us from a multi-day heavy rain event. That high pressure system will be arriving from the northeast today, and as a result we can expect clouds to slowly retreat from north to south as the day goes on. So if you’re up in the mountains, you’ll get a mostly sunny day to enjoy while southern NH likely will remain overcast until after sunset. Folks in between will see sunshine for some time this afternoon proportional to their distance from the MA border. The farther away you are, the more sunshine you’ll get.

A somewhat similar trend will be observed with high temperatures. The warmest temps today (near 70) will be up near Waterville where the sun will be out the longest. As you move southwest down the coastal plain, look for temps to slowly fall through the 60s until you get to southern NH where highs likely won’t crack 60. The coast and mountains will, as usual, be a bit cooler (mid to upper 50s).

-Jack

A Bit Cloudier Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the return of cloudier weather as a storm system slowly drifts towards our region from the west. Currently, satellite imagery shows just a few mid/high clouds streaming through northern New England, but a thicker cloud deck lurks back in Ontario. After a few mostly sunny hours this morning, expect that thicker cloud deck to arrive this afternoon. Before it does, we should be able to enjoy a pretty nice morning except for southwestern NH which seems to be stuck under a thicker low-level cloud deck at the moment.

Before the thicker clouds arrive, expect mostly sunny skies to support warm temps ranging from 60 in the mountains and western NH where clouds arrive first to around 70 along the coastal plain of Maine. The Maine coast will, as usual, cool off later this afternoon as a sea breeze develops and moves inland.

While this next system will bring plenty of clouds to the region, it doesn’t look like its precipitation will be able to move this far north as dry Canadian air rushes south in the lower levels of the atmosphere. That said, a brief sprinkle can’t be ruled out over western NH this evening or tonight.

-Jack

Lovely Spring Weather Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature lovely spring weather as dry air filters in from Canada behind yesterday’s cold front. The NW breezes bringing that new airmass into the region will support some upslope clouds up in the mountains while downsloping keeps the coastline mostly clear. The exception may be along the Midcoast east of Brunswick which is farther from the relevant mountains, experiencing more NNW winds than NW winds, and is closer to the low pressure system over New Brunswick and its associated moisture. As a result, expect a few more clouds in this area especially this morning.

For the rest of the coastal plain, clear skies and downsloping winds will push temps into the low 70s this afternoon. The mountains and Midcoast will both remain cooler with highs around 55-60. A sea breeze will cool the immediate shorelines later this afternoon, though I don’t expect it to make much progress inland in the face of larger-scale northwesterly flow.

Enjoy the lovely weather!

-Jack

Showers and Storms Return Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature generally unsettled weather as a weak storm system slides through the southern part of the region. Expect a day of mostly cloudy skies as a result of this system’s passage, though a few sunny breaks are possible in southern NH this afternoon.

The main story today will be the arrival of showers and thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned storm system. Radar imagery suggests that showers are already in progress across northern parts of the area this morning. Expect these showers to continue on and off through much of the morning before becoming more sparse around midday.

The main round of showers and storms will arrive in western parts of the area around 4-5 PM. Across northern parts of the region, expect rain to fall mostly as steady showers with the low possibility of an embedded rumble or two. Southern parts of the area will have a better chance to see rain falling as convective cells. Most of southern Maine and Central NH will remain too cool for robust severe weather which will be focused in southern NH near the MA border.

In this region, a series of discrete or semi-discrete thunderstorm cells is expected to develop around 5-6 PM. These cells could produce damaging winds, large hail, and even a brief tornado or two. This threat diminishes greatly north of Concord, though a stray damaging wind gust can’t be ruled out as far north as Plymouth.

Showers and storms will slowly roll east through Maine around sunset with heavy rain and the possibility for some small hail. A cool wind off the water should keep the severe threat quite minimal, especially east of Portland. Either way, it should be a nice evening to fall asleep to the sound of a steady rain and the relaxing rumbles of distant thunder.

High temps today will feature substantial regional variation given the position of the storm’s warm front overhead. Expect highs just shy of 50 in the mountains and near Penobscot Bay while most of Maine’s coastal plain ranges from 55 near Waterville to 65 in interior York County. Farther west in NH, highs will soar as high as 75-80 in southern parts of the state while central areas top out around 70 and the mountains remain locked near 55.

-Jack

A Brief Glimpse of Warm Weather Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a brief glimpse of warm (seasonally average) weather as high pressure slides offshore and winds turn towards the west-southwest. Expect sunny skies across the area except for a few cirrus straying into the region later this afternoon/evening. No precipitation is expected. High temps today will range from 55 in the mountains to 65 along much of the coastal plain to 70 in far southern NH. That’ll feel pretty great after weeks of below-normal temperatures!

Enjoy the warm and sunny weather while it lasts! Tomorrow looks like a day of low 50s and steady rain as low pressure tracks from Buffalo NY to Portsmouth NH which leaves us on the cool and unpleasant side of the system.

-Jack

Another Cool but Generally Nice Day Today

Hello everyone!

Today’s weather will look a lot like yesterday’s as northwesterly breezes continue on the western periphery of our last storm system. Winds won’t be quite as gusty as yesterday, though some spots will remain annoyingly breezy especially closer to the coast. Thankfully, aside from daytime cumulus clouds this afternoon, we should see sunny skies across the region. Despite that, temps will remain cool today, ranging from 45 in the north to around 60 along the coast. Pretty remarkable for a clear day with as much solar energy as July 30th!

Enjoy the nice weather today (and tomorrow) as we’ll have more showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two arrive on Friday.

-Jack

Nicer But Still Cool Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature nicer weather after yesterday afternoon’s showers and thunderstorms. Expect mostly sunny skies (especially outside the mountains) and dry conditions. The one exception will be over central/southern New Hampshire where some clouds and showers will arrive later this afternoon/evening ahead of a weak secondary cold front. While the sun is now shining at the same intensity as late July, our Polar airmass won’t be bothered to warm past 40 in the north and 60 along the coastal plain this afternoon. Fear not for the joys of late spring weather, a (much) warmer pattern is on the way next week!

-Jack

Showers and Thunderstorms Develop Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature (slightly) warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies, at least for the first part of the day. By noon, clouds will be on the increase ahead of our next storm system which will be moving through Albany New York. The warm temperatures developing as a result of morning sunshine along with increased moisture flowing into the region on southerly breezes will support the development of convective showers and storms this afternoon. Expect showers and storms to first pop up in southwestern NH around noon before moving northeast. Many of these cells will produce gusty winds capable of knocking down some trees and power lines, so be aware of the potential for scattered outages this afternoon, especially over southwestern Maine and southern NH where instability, and thus storms, will be most robust.

Convective showers and storms will gradually shift towards steadier rain this evening as the low arrives in the Maine foothills. For those to the north of the low’s track, expect rain to change over to snow tonight with accumulations of 1-3″ possible especially above 2,000 feet north of route 2.

All precipitation will wrap up before sunrise tomorrow. High temps today will range from 50 in the mountains and along the peninsulas of the Midcoast to 60 in interior parts of the coastal plain.

-Jack

Clearer and Drier Today But Still Chilly

Hello everyone!

Today will feature sunnier skies (for most of the area) and drier weather as the storm responsible for yesterday’s snow begins to decay well to our northeast. We’ll still be dealing with cool temps and breezy conditions though as cool air continues flooding in from Canada. Expect high temps ranging from 35 in the mountains to 55 in far southern NH. NW winds will be breezy, but not nearly as strong as yesterday. Enjoy the nice weather while it lasts, showers and thunderstorms will arrive tomorrow ahead of our next storm system.

-Jack

Winter’s Last Hurrah Today

Hello everyone!

After analyzing the medium/long range forecasts (and double checking the calendar), I can finally say with confidence that today, May 9th, will be winter’s last hurrah here in Maine.

A coastal storm is currently bringing bands of snow to the area as it moves through the Gulf of Maine. After beginning as rain in some areas, snow is now being reported all the way to the coast. We have a few more hours of steady snow left to go before the storm moves east later this morning. During these next few hours, expect accumulations to range from absolutely nothing along the coast to a dusting on cold surfaces just away from the coast to as much as an inch in the foothills to 1-3″ in the mountains. Any discussion of accumulations is merely of interest to climatological record-keeping (and perhaps photography opportunities) and will have no impacts on road conditions or power lines (except maybe for northern Franklin and Somerset counties, or at elevations above 2,000 feet).

Steady snow will depart most of the area by around noon, potentially after changing back to rain along the immediate coast. As the storm intensifies in the Bay of Fundy during this time, expect northwest winds to begin picking up. Gusty winds will stay with us for the rest of the day as high pressure approaches from the west. These winds will be the most impactful weather observed today, as they are likely to gust over 50 mph across most of the region and as a result, are likely to result in power outages (especially where some snow has been able to accumulate on trees).

Along with the NW winds will come the opportunity for some sunny breaks downwind of the mountains. This sunshine will provide a (very) modest boost in temps near the surface. This slightly-less-cold air near the surface will then become unstable as record-breaking cold air moves in aloft. The net result will be the development of shallow convection across southern and western parts of the region later this afternoon. This convection will drop heavy snow, graupel, and possibly some small hail as it moves through during the late afternoon hours.

Here’s a nice loop of forecast model imagery showing steady precip this morning transitioning to squally precip this afternoon/evening. Squalls will settle down around sunset as daytime heating (what little of it we get today) fades.

High temps today will be near record lows thanks to the cold airmass moving in aloft and abundant cloud cover. Look for temps this afternoon to range from 30 in the mountains to 40 along the coast.

-Jack