Hello everyone!

Unfortunately we’ll have to deal with midsummer heat today as southwesterly flow kicks into gear and carries tropical air into the region. High temps will race into the 90s across nearly the entire area, with just the immediate coast (east of Portland) able to hang on to mid/upper 80s. Some spots inland will make a run at 95 under sunny skies and with an assist from downsloping. The mountains won’t be much cooler than inland spots today as the core of the hot air remains to our north (Caribou will make a run at 100 today!).

Humidity will also be on the increase today as dew points rise from around 60 to around 65. This means heat index values will end up in the mid/upper 90s inland which is hazardous for sensitive groups.

The increase in humidity combined with the very hot temperatures means that the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable this afternoon. With CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) in the 1500-2000+ J/kg range across most of the region, it won’t take much forcing to get some scattered showers this afternoon. Without any frontal boundary to provide this forcing, we’ll have to rely mostly on the localized forcing from terrain features. So if you’re in the mountains, don’t be shocked if a brief but heavy shower pops up this afternoon. It may even have a rumble or two of thunder.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature rising temperatures and humidity as southerly/southwesterly breezes continue to carry tropical air into the region. Expect high temps to range from the low 90s in the foothills/interior coastal plain to mid 80s in the mountains and along much of the rest of the coastal plain. The only cool spots will be right along the shoreline where onshore flow will keep temps in the mid 70s. Dew points will cross the 60 degree threshold later this afternoon/evening which moves us from “comfortable” conditions to “sticky” conditions (at least in my book). Skies will remain mostly sunny and precipitation chances will remain negligible until this weekend.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

After a stretch of delightfully cool weather, heat will begin to return today as high pressure slips south of the region and winds shift from north/northeast to west/northwest. This means downsloping will give the foothills an extra boost as far as temps go, and this is where we’re likely to see readings in the low 90s this afternoon. The mountains will see temps in the mid 80s while the coastal plain will be kept a bit cooler (70 at the shoreline/80 near I-95) thanks to a midday shift to onshore southerly flow. Sunny skies in place across the region this morning will continue throughout the rest of the day.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature more in the way of beautiful early-summer weather as high pressure remains locked overhead. Skies this morning are sunny just about everywhere aside from a few cirrus drifting into the region both from the north and south. These cirrus should remain thin and isolated enough to consider today mostly if not entirely sunny. That sunshine will combine with slightly warmer temperatures aloft to support milder high temps today, ranging from 70 along the midcoast shorelines to 75 in the mountains to 80 along much of the coastal plain/foothills region. A few spots in southern NH could end up near or above 85. Dew points will remain delightfully dry so no need to worry about uncomfortable humidity. Enjoy the lovely weather outside if you have the chance!

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature another day of cool temps and generally clear skies as high pressure drifts slowly into the region from Canada. Expect today’s weather to be very similar to yesterday. Morning sunshine (after a few low clouds burn off inland) will produce just enough instability for cumulus clouds to develop in the afternoon. A few of these clouds will be just tall enough for a brief shower up in the mountains. Otherwise, dry weather will continue along with seasonably cool temps and delightfully low humidity. Expect highs within a few degrees of 70 across the area. The coolest spots, a little closer to 60, will be up in the mountains and right along the shorelines. The warmest spots, a little closer to 75, will be found in the Manchester-Concord NH area.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature another day of cool weather as an upper level trough drifts overhead. This trough will bring very cool air into the region aloft, which means that we’ll have a stronger-than-usual vertical temperature gradient today. What does that mean in practical terms? Morning sunshine will give way to afternoon cloudiness as cumulus develop in response to daytime heating. Some of these clouds will grow tall enough to produce a brief rain shower. The best chance for a shower will be over northern and eastern parts of the area this afternoon. High temps will remain on the cooler side, ranging from 55 in the mountains to 70 along the coastal plain.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Cool temps and calm weather is expected today as northwesterly breezes bring a pleasant airmass into the region from Canada. Aside from a few clouds in the mountains (associated with upslope), today’s skies will be mostly sunny though a few cumulus clouds are likely to pop up this afternoon. These are not expected to drop any precipitation. As mentioned before, temps will be a bit cooler than average and will he strongly influenced by the upslope/downslope pattern. In the mountains, high temps will remain stuck in the mid/upper 50s while the coastline enjoys temps in the low/mid 70s in Maine and mid/upper 70s to near 80 in southeastern NH.

Enjoy the lovely weather outside if you can!

-Jack

Hello everyone!

While we’ll have to wait a little longer for perfect bluebird skies to return, today’s weather will be a marked improvement over the clouds and showers we saw yesterday. Yesterday’s cold front is fizzling out to our east, and clear skies have returned to all but eastern parts of the area as of this morning. Breaks of sunshine should become more frequent later in the morning especially along and west of the Turnpike.

This sunshine combined with some leftover moisture and cooler air aloft will set the stage for some instability this afternoon.

This map from the HRRR model shows about 100-250 J/kg of CAPE (a measure of thunderstorm fuel) which is right at the lower end of what’s needed to produce a few showers. With a secondary cold front swinging in from Quebec, I think we could manage to see a few showers over the mountains this afternoon (note the blue dots indicating such precipitation in the forecast map above). There is certainly not enough instability to support any type of severe weather so impacts from showers this afternoon will be minimal.

For those of us outside the mountains, we’ll see enough instability for a field of cumulus clouds that will periodically dim the sunshine but that’s about it.

High temps today will range from around 70 in the north to around 85 in southern NH. Along the coast, winds will turn onshore later this morning and will keep temps comfortably in the 70s.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

A cold front will approach our region from the west today, and lose much of its forward momentum as it does so. This means that our weather will primarily be characterized by cloudy skies, some drizzle and fog (especially closer to the coastline), and rounds of showers/thunderstorms.

The first round of showers and storms (appearing in blue on the forecast map above) will arrive in western NH later this morning. These storms have produced some marginally severe wind gusts in the Catskills this morning, but as they move away from the best fuel source (in red/pink on the map above), they are expected to weaken. By the time they arrive in our area, we’ll be lucky to get a rumble of thunder from these showers.

The second round of showers and storms will form along the actual cold front in the early/mid afternoon hours. These storms will have access to a bit more fuel especially over NH. Note that the fuel supply diminishes greatly over Maine due to relatively cool temps and leftover drizzle/fog. As a result, expect a few stronger storms in NH this afternoon that may produce some stray wind damage but overall, today’s severe weather environment appears fairly tame.

High temps today will range from around 60-65 along the peninsulas near Penobscot Bay to 80-85 in southern NH where a brief sunny break can’t be entirely ruled out.

One last note for those reading from the Fryeburg/Bridgton/Norway/Farmington corridor. Radar imagery shows a stray shower wandering in your direction this morning. It contains no lightning (at least as of 6:35 AM) and will pass more or less unnoticed unless you happen to be outside as it moves overhead. Most everyone else should be dry until at least 10-11 AM when that first round of storms arrives from the west.

Here’s an animation of today’s forecast radar (blue) and thunderstorm fuel (red/pink) for those interested. As a brief side note, these graphics are the culmination of a bit of experimentation I’ve been doing in an attempt to learn more about computers and computer programming. I built myself a computer from scratch last weekend and have since been working to configure it to produce graphics like this that I can use for forecasting. There’s still plenty of touch-up work to be done, but overall I think they turned out fairly well!

Drier weather returns tomorrow.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature continued quiet weather as high pressure retains control over our area. Some moisture spilling over the top of this high is resulting in patchy mid/high clouds this morning, but most places should see at least a few breaks of sun especially earlier in the day. These clouds are actually attributable to Tropical Storm Cristobal which made history yesterday by retaining its tropical cyclone status as it tracked through Wisconsin, farther northwest than any other storm recorded since 1851.

Thankfully, the tropical humidity associated with Cristobal’s remnants is headed for Hudson Bay (!) today while we’ll remain relatively cool and dry with onshore flow off the Gulf of Maine. Look for high temps ranging from 60 right along the shoreline to 70 for much of the coastal plain/foothills/mountains to near 80 in far southwestern NH. Some patchy drizzle and fog may develop this evening as southeasterly flow starts bringing marine air inland.

-Jack