Today will feature light to moderate snow this morning becoming heavier by this evening. Look for 3-6″ to pile up through the day with a couple more possible tonight up in the mountains. Snow will change to sleet from SW to NE late in the evening putting an end to meaningful accumulation. Temps will slowly rise from the 10’s this morning to the 20’s by this evening. For all the details/analysis for this storm, check out last evening’s writeup.
More snow on the way Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday/Monday. Seeing as I’m off school today, I’ll have info on each system in this evening’s update.
Last night we witnessed the greatest comeback in Superbowl history and over the next 7 days we’re likely to witness a robust comeback in terms of winter weather. An icy storm will bring snow, sleet, and ice to the region tonight through Wednesday. This will be quickly followed by a storm threat for Thursday as colder air pours into the region. Lighter snow is forecast for Saturday before another mess takes shape late in the day Sunday into Monday. Welcome back to winter!
Seeing as we have many storms in the forecast and I’d like to get this done by midnight, the analysis for each storm won’t be as beautifully detailed as I might like. Hopefully we can pull a snowday out of the hat tomorrow for more detailed coverage.
Mess #1- Tonight Through Wednesday Morning
Radar Showing Light Snow Approaching This Evening. Credit: COD
A weak upper level disturbance will approach tonight and in advance of it, snow will break out. There’s lots of dry air for this system to overcome and so I don’t expect much snow to actually make it to the ground until later this evening for NH and later tonight/early tomorrow morning for Maine. Snow will continue through tomorrow before changing to sleet/freezing rain tomorrow night and into Wednesday morning. Expect right around an inch on the ground by the time the commute arrives tomorrow morning.
18Z RGEM Showing Light Snow During The Day Tomorrow
Light to moderate snow will be the rule for most of tomorrow as warm air moves up and over the cold air near the surface. The main low pressure system will track well to our west though a secondary wave of low pressure will develop along a bump in the warm front near Cape Cod. This will keep those NNE winds going strong keeping cold air locked in place at the surface. As the warm air advection aloft intensifies, precip will too. We’ve already gone over how heavier precip keeps cold air in place due to latent heat transfer from phase changes (melting precip cools air as snowflakes require energy to move from solid to liquid state) however strong WAA will eventually overcome this process aloft changing precip over to sleet and freezing rain.
12Z NAM Cross Section Valid 7 PM Tomorrow Showing An Elevated Cold Frontal Surface With Warmer Air Aloft. Image Credit: Accuweather
As evening approaches tomorrow so too will warm air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This cross section from VA (left) to NB (right) goes right through Maine (middle/right) and shows a cold frontal surface to facilitate overrunning precip tomorrow as well as a change to mixed precip tomorrow night. Warm air being forced up and over this low level cold dome will give us the snow tomorrow and the warmth eventually becomes warm enough to melt the snow into sleet and freezing rain.
18Z NAM Showing Warmth Aloft And Cold At The Surface Leading To Sleet/Freezing Rain Early Wednesday Morning. Image Credit: Weatherbell
Here’s what the result of that process looks like early Wednesday morning. Notice the warmth aloft has made it well north into Canada and a secondary low pressure system off Portland is locking in the cold at the surface. As a result, look for an icy mix to last into the morning commute Wednesday even along much of the coastline. The exception will be in the usual spots along the midcoast where the secondary low could mix up the atmosphere enough to draw down some of the warmer air aloft.
18Z RGEM Showing The Setup Wednesday Morning. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The event ends Wednesday with a temperature roller coaster along with slick travel for the morning commute. As the deeper moisture and best dynamics lift off to the NE. we’ll be left with freezing drizzle for the morning commute Wednesday. Temps will rapidly jump up into the 50’s for a few hours around noon Wednesday for most (possibly excluding the northern mountains) as the warm front lifts north and the cold air dam mixes out. The cold front will put a quick end to the spring like temps Wednesday evening as temps will quickly drop back below freezing. The refreezing of any water/slush on Wednesday evening will be something to watch as a potential hazard for the Wednesday evening commute and/or the Thursday morning commute. Black ice will be something to watch for in that timeframe.
12Z GFS Showing Upper Level Potential For A Coastal Storm Thrusday. Image Credit: Accuweather
Our next storm will develop right on the heels of our Tuesday-Wednesday mess. The cold front that will put an end to our brief few hours of spring weather will stall out over the Mid Atlantic and incoming Pacific energy will form a storm along the front Wednesday evening. Exact interactions between all the various disturbances will determine if that storm intensifies up the coast resulting in a sizeable snow storm or if it zooms harmlessly out to sea. Right now, I’d lean towards a light/moderate snow event beginning Thursday morning and ending Thursday evening. The best chance for several inches of snow will be along the coast though even there, dustings could be the upper limit if the storm tracks a little farther out to sea.
Looking past Thursday, a light snow event is in the works for Saturday with another messier system for Sunday night into Monday. More details on those as we go through the week.
Today will feature a temporary return of our NW wind pattern as a cold front moved through last night. This time, however, real cold air is set to move in as opposed to that pseudo cold behind last week’s fronts. Temps will start in the 20’s to low 30’s this morning before falling into the 10’s/low 20’s by this afternoon. Skies will start mainly sunny but will gradually turn cloudier as our next storm system approaches. I hope to have a more detailed update on it this evening.
Our WNW wind pattern will finally be broken today as a clipper system moves to our north. Look for slightly milder temps along with more clouds and SW breezes. Some snow showers will be scattered about the north country where an inch of accumulation is possible in spots. Things are expected to remain mostly dry in the south. Highs will range from around 20 in the north to right around freezing along the coast.
Messier weather arrives Tuesday morning but as a result of Patriot domination forecast this evening, my full update on that will be pushed back to tomorrow night.
Our recent upslope/downslope pattern will still be going strong today as westerly winds drive our weather. Up in the mountains, look for cool temps, more clouds than sun, and the chance for a flurry or two. Highs in the mountains will be in the mid to upper 10’s. Along the coast, more sun than clouds is expected along with dry conditions and milder temps. Highs along the coast are expected to top out right around freezing.
Some light snow is possible in spots tomorrow before heavier snow/sleet/ice moves in Tuesday into Wednesday.
We’ll continue our stretch of weather being governed by W/NW winds today as light breezes continue behind a cold front that passed through yesterday. Some colder air moved into the region behind that front and as a result, highs today look to be a bit cooler than they have been in recent days. Look for temps to top out just shy of 20 in the north and just shy of 30 in the south. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds with more clouds than sun up in the mountains and vice versa along the coast. Mountain snow showers will continue today but will be lighter and less widespread as the moisture supply gradually dries up.
More interesting weather is on tap for early next week.
Today will feature moderate temps, a mix of sun and clouds, and the chance for snow showers or squalls as a cold front moves through. Look for highs to range from the low 20’s north to just above freezing in the south. A passing cold front will bring more snow showers and squalls to the region beginning in the mountains around noon and ending up on the coastal plain by 3 or 4 PM. They’ll move offshore by sundown. They’ll bring low visibility and a quick coating to possibly an inch of snow so look out if traveling this afternoon.
Kachelmann Swiss Model Showing Snow Squalls Approaching The Coast This Afternoon. Credit: Kachelmann
Here’s a visualization of the snow squalls. Not everyone will get one but many will, especially in Maine. It might be a little touchier in NH.
Some more light snow is possible Sunday before a larger storm of unknown impact next week.
Today will feature light snow this morning followed by partial clearing in the afternoon. Look for a general 1-3″ of snow with a few 4″ amounts possible along the coast. Light snow will continue through around noon when it will taper off to snow showers from SW to NE. Most areas should be dry and starting to catch glimpses of the sun by 3 or 4 in the afternoon. These glimpses will be most likely in the SW where they are expected to bring temps a little above freezing for highs. Farther NE, the clouds will keep the cold air in place and thus temps will be a bit cooler in the 23-28 range.
Today will feature partly to mostly sunny skies, cool temps, and light winds as we’re left in a little bit of a weather purgatory, removed from the direct influence of any strong weather system. Look for highs right around 20 in the north and right around 30 in the south. Clouds will eventually edge out the sun as it sets below the horizon this afternoon as a clipper type system kicks us out of purgatory. Some light snow is expected by sundown across southern NH but we’ll have to wait until the early hours tomorrow morning for the next little disturbance to bring us some flakes. In terms of accumulations, a widespread coating-2″ is forecast with a few spots along the coast and midcoast especially seeing 2-4″. I’ll tweet out a snowfall accumulation map at some point today and post one here in tomorrow morning’s update. Snow will be generally light so no major issues are expected.
Remember yesterday’s weather? Well today’s will be pretty much the same with the exception being temps that are a few degrees colder. Low pressure will be developing well SE of Cape Cod today and will be too far SE to bring us any precip but it won’t be too far SE to keep us in its wind field. This means we’ll be getting a shift from the recent WNW winds to NNW winds which will aid in drawing more cold air into the region. Temps will rise into the low 20’s in the mountains and low 30’s along the coast with steady NNW winds to make it feel a bit colder. Mountain snow showers/flurries are expected to continue with an inch of accumulation possible in the higher elevations.
Our next chance for widespread snow arrives tomorrow night into Wednesday.
Forecasterjack 