The cold air is arriving…

After a January thaw of sorts, the cold air will return; with vengeance. A cold front will sweep across the area today lowering temps to seasonable levels. Wednesday there is a possibility for some light snow in the south but nothing much. Thursday, an arctic cold front sweeps south bringing below average temps. A warm front moves north Saturday followed by a strong cold front sunday.
as for any snow chances, there could be snow squalls associated with any of the cold fronts most likely not todays. The PNA will move + which is bringing in cool air however models are split down the middle on the AO/NAO but it does not look like any major snow events are in the forecast.
-Jack

Warm…then cold…

After a period of chilly weather across the eastern third of the country, there is a warm up in store. This warm up will arrive in the next few days lasting until mext weekend. The week after next the jet stream will dive south bringing in cooler, stormier weather. More on this later.weekly graphic 7

Apologies for rather bad graphic. Computer error šŸ˜¦ Orange/green lines represent the Jet Stream for dates shown on graphic 1/5-1/14 for green 1/15-1/22 orange.
-Jack

Major winter storm for New England

Due to the fact that it is the holidays this update will be brief. There is a 998 low analized over NC moving to the NE. This low will continue to deepen over the next few hours. The rain/snow line will set up distinctly over coastal CT and RI this afternoon moving inland as warmer air filters in aloft. This warmer air will wilter in causing a changeover to a mix of sleet/freezing rain/snow/rain over inland CT/central MA. The warmer air wil spread out to all layers of the atmosphere over coastal CT/RI/Cape Cod/SE MA by dawn tomorrow.
noreaster 1
Snowfall map. Red=14-18″ Darkest blue=6-10″ Darker blue=3-6″ light blue=1-3″ green=Dusting-1″
Winds will be gusty especially near the coast. NYC is under a High Wind Warning currently so be careful! Winds should peak around 45-55 mph in heavy squalls late tonight in the city.
35-45 mph a little farther away from the coast (30-40 miles) and lesser winds further away from that.
I will have a full update on the changing pattern in the next few days.
-JAck

Christmas forecast and a look at the week ahead…

Christmas is finally almost here (3 days away!) and many of us are wondering if it will be a white christmas.

Today and Tomorrow will be cold and windy but no major problems across the northeast. The lake effect machine will be cranking today across typical areas. A few light flurries are possible across the north east today but any will be very light and will not cause any disruptions.

As we head into christmas eve, there couldĀ be some light rain/rain showers in the ohio valley but nothing major. When Santa arrives Monday night, he can expect light snow across southern New England.

There looks to be the potential for snow on Christmas day. However, activity will be light and will be focused across southern New England.

storm 3c

Snowfall map.

The disturbance creating this christmas snow will be weak by any standards and will skirt south of ME/NH. MA/RI/CT will see the most snow. Accumulations should be light and travel impacts will be low to none.

As we head into the middle of next week, there looks to be a stronger noreaster Wednesday night inot Thursday. Totals should be much higer with that storm yet it is too early to tell specific amounts.

storm 3d

Tracks of next week storms.

Cold air shoulf remain in control Thursday so it should be a predominantly snow event.

 

Stay tuned for more about the upcoming storms!

-Jack

Settling into a quieter next week…

Storms #1 and #2 are long gone now with #3 getting going now over the mid west. This new storm named Draco by TWC will produce blizzard conditions across the midwest with some severe weather on the south side. This storm will continue to deepen as it moves east tomorrow. Totals for Des Moines/Madison should be in the 6-12″ range with 8-14″ possible for the Green Bay area. On Friday the storm should be in the Great Lakes region bringing rain to the I-95 corridor. The ski country of Northwest ME, Northern NH, and northern VT will get more snow. Totals are approacking 3 FEET at Saddleback and Sugarloaf. Power conditions will be widespread on all the big slopes. As for the more populated areas of NYC, Boston, DC, this one will be all rain. I dont see too much to encourage snow for the I-95 corridor within the next week. There is still all of January and February and of course we cant forget March…

-Jack

Full update on winter storms

We are now on a wild roller coaster ride when it comes to the weather in the North East. A low pressure system is moving out of the Great Lakes and will be transferring its energy to a secondary low off the NJ coast.

noreaster 12

 

Graphic overview of storms.

As you can see, there are many factors playing into the forecast. The coastal front, the new low, cold air damming. Cold air damming is when Ā the heavy cold air stops the advance of Warm air. Where exactly the cold air dam sets up will play a big part in the type of precipitation. The coastal front will play an equally important part on determining precipitation types. As shown, the east winds off the warm water will bring in warmer air. This will turn snow/sleet/freezing rain into all rain. Expect this to move inland Monday-tuesday.

After the coastal front moves inland, Wednesday will already be here as will another storm. This new storm will be MUCH stronger.

noreaster 13

 

This graphic depicts the setup Monday-Wednesday. The coastal front from tonight will move way inland turning everyone except the ski resorts over to plain rain. The wednesday low will move swiftly through the Gulf of Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. On the backside of this system the cold air will make a comeback turning everyone back over to snow Wednesday evening-night. Accumulations should be light.

After we get the Monday and Wednesday storms out of the way, there will be yet another low Friday. This is a little too far out to accurately forecast so I will detail that in a later Post coming Wednesday-Thursday.

-Jack

Colder pattern next week…

As Christmas draws ever closer, Old man winter has finally gotten down to New England. It looks like there will be 2 storms systems to watch. System 1 will affect the region Sunday-Monday. There will be an area of low pressure moving into the Plains on Saturday and by Sunday, it will be centered in the Great Lakes region. This low will occlude and form a new secondary low off of the Jersey shore. This new low will then move due east passing south of Cape Cod. After mmoving east of Cape Cod, it will deepen and expand to the NW. This will spread snow bands across Coastal Maine Sunday-Monday. The storm will clear out of the region midday Monday. This is where things get interesting. The Monday storm will linger just offshore into Tuesday as another low moves up the coast. The northward moving low will absorb the monday low and will BOMB OUT. There is some question as to where the rain/snow line will set up. It looks wet across most of New England.

Stay tuned for more!

-Jack

Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

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