Rain and snow on track to hit tonight

Hello everyone!

Our next storm is approaching the region this afternoon and precip is already well underway across CT, RI, and MA. This will spread northward into NH and ME later this afternoon and in to this evening. Precip should initially start out as rain especially near the coast but should change to snow later this evening.

Snow map 12-29 v1

 

Above is my thinking regarding final snow totals. As you can see, a very sharp drop off is expected along the coast depending where the rain/snow line sets up.

After the storm departs early Monday morning, NW winds will become very gusty with winds reaching 25-35 mph.

Looking ahead, were back in the freezer this upcoming week with temps barely reaching 10 during the day and plunging well below zero at night. Our next storm potential looks to be Thursday into Friday.

-Jack

Rain and snow for Sunday night

Hello!

Tomorrow night will feature our next storm system bringing with it rain and snow. Tomorrow we will see temps in the 30’s and 40’s so as a result the precipitation type forecast is rather tricky. My current thinking is that coastal areas see a mix of rain and snow accumulating 3-6″ while inland areas see lots of heavy snow adding up to 6-10″.  The mountains see less because they are farther away from the storm. I think that they get 3-6″.

Snow map 12-28 v1

Above is my thinking as to the precipitation type and and snowfall amounts.

After this storm, gusty NW winds will bring in very cold air. The next chance for a storm will show up late next week. There has been a lot of hype regarding this mornings model runs. I urge everyone not to pay any attention to those screaming over 1 run and keep in mind that this run is an outliar. We will continue to monitor the latest forecasts so stay tuned.

-Jack

Storm on Sunday to bring rain/snow

Hello everyone!

After a light snow event yesterday, we are headed into a warmer pattern for the next few days as winds turn to the southwest. Temps will rise above freezing today into the 30’s and will hit 40 in some spots Saturday and Sunday.

Sunday night is when the forecast gets tricky. A storm system will be moving out of the Great Lakes in one part of the Jet Stream. Another storm system in the southern Jet Stream  will be moving out of the Gulf of Mexico. If they can join together, or “phase”, than the storm would be a lot stronger. Right now, I think that they will not phase resulting in a weaker storm system.

Setup 12-27 v1

The map above shows how the 2 lows in the 2 parts of the Jet Stream will stay separate resulting in a weaker coastal low.

Snow map 12-27 v1

 

Anticipated snowfall accumulation through Monday Morning.

The other question in the forecast is about temperatures. For the 2 days before the storm, winds will be blowing from the southwest ushering in warm air. As a result, precipitation type becomes an issue. As of now, I expect a mostly snow event with the exceptions being in the Midcoast region and coastal York county. Amounts will be held down slightly there though the snow map reflects higher liquid amounts along the Midcoast rather than the mixing potential.

After this system, strong NW winds will bring in very cold air from Canada with highs in the low teens and lows well below 0. There is another storm on the horizon in about a week however, it is too far out to discuss that in any detail.

-Jack

Light snow today

Today we have a clipper system moving through that will spawn a coastal low offshore. The result will be a period of light snow that will produce about 2-4″ of snow across coastal and midcoast Maine with 3-6″ downeast and 1-3″ across most of the rest of New England. The exception may be cape cod where rain may mix in. It will not be a lot of snow but just enough to make things slick. Given the amount of people traveling today, expect some small delays here and there.

Snow map 12-26 v1

After this, cool temps will dominate through the weekend when southwest winds will warm things up. Our next chance for a storm will arrive Sunday with a coastal low.

-Jack

 

Ice storm unfolding across the region today

Today will be an interesting one across the area with freezing rain developing and becoming heavy at times. As of 7 am, there was a trace of ice on the ground in Yarmouth while areas to the N/NW are reporting generally a quarter inch of ice. I expect that those areas being impacted now will have the highest chance of hefty accumulations. Along the coast north of PWM and points west, 1/2 inches or more can be expected while York county gets around a 1/4 inch.

Current radar shows a band of heavy precip moving across Cumberland and York counties and more back to the west. Precip will begin to fill in later on this morning and become heavy as low pressure approaches the region.

After this wave of low pressure, we get a ‘bonus’ round tomorrow morning. The same setup will be in place with cold air damming across the region and warm air aloft so freezing rain will again be the dominant precip type. New accumulations of 1/4″ are likely with that storm.

It all moves out to sea Tuesday with icy cold air in place for Christmas.

-Jack

Ice storm still on track for parts of the region

Today will feature an overrunning precipitation event with mainly light precip. Rain will be the dominant precip type along the coast with snow inland. It will be mild out there in the 30’s and 40’s.

 FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST MAP 12-20
With regards to the ice storm, it looks like the area most affected will be the foothills of Maine and the mountains of New Hampshire. Up to 3/4″ of ice could fall in those areas. Heavy rain will be the big story across southern coastal Maine, southern New Hampshire and the rest of Southern New England. The mountains of Maine and far northern Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont will see a mostly snow event from this which is good for the ski areas.
Picture

-Jack

Warmer today, ice storm still on track for the weekend

Today, the warm air advection responsible for this weekends ice storm will kick in bringing temps above freezing for the 1st day in quite a while. Partly cloudy skies will dominate so enjoy the sun before it retreats behind the clouds for a while. Snow and sleet will move in Friday and change to freezing rain or maybe even rain along the coast. This precipitation will be light however, not significant enough to cause major issues though roads will be slippery. Saturday will feature cloudy skies with the chance for light freezing rain before the real event gets underway Sunday. It will start as snow for the interior and freezing rain for the coast before everyone changes over to freezing rain. This will be heavy at times with moderate to heavy accumulations likely. This WILL NOT be anything like the ice storm of 1998. A potential comparison might be the 2008 storm though amounts will probably be less than even that.

Picture

-Jack

Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

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