Well is still a high end cat 2 with 110 mph winds and is bering down on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula.
97L is now put at a 10% chance of development by the nhc and due to the lack of deep convection (big thunderstorms)I would have to agree with them this time.
It will be more cloudy today as a snowy disturbance passes through. Cooler with highs in the mid 50s but cooling off to around 30 tonight. Winds will be light at around 10 mph from the west.
Well it looks like we will still get the snow with the stationary front on Thursday but it is becoming less likely that the weekend storm will play out for us.
As of 5pm EDT Rina is a strong cat 2 with 110 mph winds.
97L is still put at a 20% chance of developing into a TD by the nhc. I would put the odds slightly higher at 30%.
I have just looked at the models, which are very split on a track solution for this system. The GFS is putting the storm well to the south of New England. Another model the WRF has it slightly farther north with accumulations of a mere inch. The most potent solution is the ECMWF which has a extremely powerful low in the gulf of maine with substantial snow along the coast. We will keep tuning the forecast.
The snowy storm expected to hit thursday night is amounting to something. The snow will accumulate to >1″ at the coast with 1-3 in the Maine foot hills and 2-4 on the upslope sides of many maine and New Hampshire. The storm forecasts for sunday are still being tuned. At this point we can expect some rain and wind at this point we can not tell how much.
The tropics are up to no good again. The only named storm in the atlantic basin is hurricane Rina with 105 mph winds however I think that this is very conservative and it is more likely at cat 3 status with 115 mph winds. Also in the atlantic basin is an area of disturbed weather (97L) the nhc is saying that it has a 20% chance I would put the odds slightly higher at 30%.