Tag Archives: Hispaniola

Isaac could ruin the RNC

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TS ISAAC will have the potential to really be a heck of a storm… It is very large and therefore has the potential to be a real mess for a large area. 1st stop: Haiti. As Isaac moves WNW or NW it will likely consolidate into a hurricane. Regardless of wind speeds, Isaac is very moist and capable of dropping heavy rains. Haiti is very susceptible to heavy rains due to deforestation so any rain can cause dangerous mudslides. Adding to the problem over 200,000 people live in makeshift tents/shelters on muddy ground so rain could easily leave many people homeless. Isaac likely will not stop there though. After traversing Hispaniola, likely leading to a humanitarian crisis, he will churn into the Straits of Florida. The water temperatures will be in the 90 degree range. When any tropical entity (TD, TS, or Hurricane) moves over water like this, if shear is low enough, and moisture in plentiful supply then it is a lot like dumping 100 gallons of gasoline on a fire. Sadly for the US, all factors will be in play for RI (rapid intensification) to occur 24 hrs or so after emerging from land. Isaac will then continue WNW or NW into the bathwater of the GOM. RI could continue or resume again here. This is where things get tricky. There is another TS spinning in the C Atl named Joyce. Joyce will move NW for the next 4 to 5 days before causing us meteorologists to argue about what will happen while scratching our heads having no clue what the heck is going on. Here is why; Everything is fine and neat for 4 days. then when day 4 arrives here is the situation: Joyce will be located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Isaac will be near Key West. Isaac and Joyce will both get larger and more powerful as time goes on. Monday (day 4) they could interact (meaning 1 storm has an effect on the other).

STAY TUNED!

-JAck

Full tropical update

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The full version of the tropical update is as follows:

There are several areas of interest now, Gordon, 94L, 95L, a wave off Africa and a wave approaching the Antilles.

Gordon
Initial Winds: 70MPH
Pressure: 987MB
Classification: TS

Gordon will track NE and become extratropicial while moving towards the coast of Spain where showers are likely at most.

94L:
Initial Probability: 80%*

94L will likely continue to move WNW or W. Following in the shadow of another tropical wave 94L is expected to move north of Hispaniola and Cuba. From there, it could make landfall anywhere from Havana Cuba to Halifax Canada. Depending on where it will make landfall, it could hit at a strength of a weak TS or a strong hurricane. THIS STORM IS A THREAT TO THE US!! Stay tuned for future updates!! 94L has a large well defined circulation but lacks heavy thunderstorms to be a classified TD.

95L:
Initial probability: 30%*

95L will likely drift around the NW GOM (Gulf of Mexico) While slowly growing in organization. It could eventually impact the Gulf coast next week.

African Wave:
Initial probability: 20%

This African wave will be moving W while developing at a steady pace. There is high uncertainty with this forecast and THIS STORM COULD ALSO IMPACT THE US IN THE FUTURE!!!

Wave Approaching the Antilles:
Current probability: 0%

The reason I mentioned this Wave is that it is helping 94L develop by leaving a moist environment in its wake. This wave has a small chance of development once it reaches the Western Caribbean.

STAY TUNED!!!

-JAck