Tag Archives: warm

Showers Bring Heavy Rain Tonight Before Cooler And Drier Conditions Early Week

Leave a comment

Hello everyone!

A cold front is incoming this evening and will cross the area tonight and early tomorrow morning. Showers will accompany this front with heavy rain and possibly a rumble or two in the far south. No severe weather is expected, just heavy rain. Rain will be heaviest in the north where up to an inch is expected. It will be lightest in the south where some areas may only pick up a quarter inch. Rain races NE Monday morning with clearing skies and gusty NW winds Monday during the day. Those NW winds will bring much cooler and much drier air in for Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching front will bring SW winds and warmer air for late week with showers possible by the upcoming weekend. Just as a reminder, current information on tropical weather is now on the new tropical weather page.

4:00 PM Observations Verifying Today's Forecast
4:00 PM Observations Verifying Today’s Forecast

Today’s forecast worked out pretty well and the only glaring error was that there was more sunshine than expected. So far I haven’t received any complaints about that! Clouds are still slowly filtering in from the west while the Midcoast got their predicted marine fog. Temps look good with the only glaring error being lower temps (60’s) along the midcoast where the fog hasn’t let up. I have doubts about the 88 degree reading in Concord as no other station in that area is above the low 80’s but if that is actually accurate, that would be the other mistake as far as temps go. Overall, I’m pretty pleased with today’s forecast.

8 AM Upper Air Observations Showing The Overall Pattern. Image Credit: Meteocentre
8 AM Upper Air Observations Showing The Overall Pattern. Image Credit: Meteocentre

A deep trough is located over the Great Lakes this evening with an associated surface low near the SE corner of Hudson Bay. Ahead of the trough, strong blocking ridging exists over the Canadian Maritimes. In between, SW flow is bringing warm moist air northward. Strong NW flow behind the trough and attendant front will bring cool, dry air sourced from Northern Canada before SW winds ahead of the digging trough in the Pacific NW bring warmer air for the upcoming weekend.

HRRR With An Idea Of What The Radar Might Look Like Early Tomorrow Morning. Image Credit: Weatherbell
HRRR With An Idea Of What The Radar Might Look Like Early Tomorrow Morning. Image Credit: Weatherbell

In terms of what to expect tonight, showers are just now moving into far Western VT which means that western NH will start to see drops in 2-3 hours. It won’t be until well after dark that western Maine starts to see the rain move in. The rain will be associated with a single N/S band containing heavy rain and possibly a rumble or two in the far south. The band will be wider and heavier in northern areas resulting in higher totals there. The HRRR map above illustrates the setup well. The map is valid at 4:00 tomorrow morning. Rain will move out of Portland by 6 AM and out of the midcoast by 8. Clearing will follow.

12Z GFS Showing Gusty NW Winds Tomorrow. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing Gusty NW Winds Tomorrow. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Behind the front, gusty NW winds are forecast to develop. Winds could gust over 30mph at times as cooler and drier air works into the region. Look for these winds to quickly downslope the coast to sunny skies while upsloping may postpone sunshine for the mountains. Eventually, the air will become so dry that even with upsloping, the mountains will become sunny by afternoon. Dew points are forecast to drop to near 40 by tomorrow night. As winds settle down tomorrow night, temps will fall too. By Tuesday morning, the first fall like chills will be felt with temps bottoming out right around 40 in the north and 50 in the south with very dry air.

12Z GFS Showing Warm SW Winds Ahead Of An Approaching Front Late Next Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing Warm SW Winds Ahead Of An Approaching Front Late This Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Not ready for fall? Not to worry. By late in the week a front will be approaching from the NW and ahead of it SW winds will bring in slowly increasing warmth as well as humidity. While conditions won’t be stifling, the word sticky will once again come to mind by the upcoming weekend. As far as precip goes, the front won’t have a lot of dynamics associated with it and so scattered showers/storms are likely the most we’ll get from that front. After that, dry and warm conditions are likely to kick off next week.

Be sure to check out the new tropical weather page to keep tabs on the Atlantic disturbances 90L and 99L without the hype you may see on social media. The official NHC forecast, my forecast, and links to all the tropical weather information you need to take your own look at the tropics is all there. Check it out!

-Jack

Slushy Storm To Bring More Snow, Rain To The Area Tomorrow Into Sunday

2 Comments

Hello everyone!

Another storm is on the way this weekend and while much of the Northeast US sees rain and 40’s for this storm, we lucky Northern New Englanders will likely be seeing more snow. While this will not be a big storm by any means, especially compared to others this winter, it will put a temporary pause on the arrival of Spring.

Water Vapor Image From This Afternoon Showing The Two Features That Will Bring Snow To The Area This Weekend. Credit: SSEC
Water Vapor Image From This Afternoon Showing The Two Features That Will Bring Snow To The Area This Weekend. Credit: SSEC

Looking at the setup for our weekend system, two main features present themselves: a plume of moisture and warm air heading north from the Gulf Of Mexico and an Arctic disturbance racing SE to meet the moisture. How much cold makes it south and how far it gets will be crucial to determining how much snow falls.

12Z GFS Valid At 1 PM Tomorrow Showing Warm Air Streaming In At 2500 Feet. Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Valid At 1 PM Tomorrow Showing Warm Air Streaming In At 2500 Feet. Credit: Accuweather

Before precip even starts, SW winds aloft will be allowing warm air to stream into southern parts of the region resulting in very little snow on the front side of the storm. Winds aloft are far weaker inland and thus above freezing air should be mainly a coastal issue with the foothills briefly getting in on the action tomorrow afternoon.

12Z NAM Showing Warm Air Working In Aloft But Staying Firm At The Surface. Vertical Temp Profile For Augusta, Valid At Midnight Tomorrow
12Z NAM Showing Warm Air Working In Aloft But Staying Firm At The Surface. Vertical Temp Profile For Augusta, Valid At Midnight Tomorrow. The Red Line Indicates The Temperature.

Warm air will also be working in at the surface but with 1-3′ of snowpack still on the ground, warming aloft may outpace the warming at the surface tomorrow morning so a brief period of sleet/freezing rain  is possible along the coast and just inland as well. While this doesn’t look like a major concern, watch out for some extra slick spots tomorrow morning.

12Z GFS Showing A Lack Of Intense Upward Motion Resulting In A Lack Of Heavy Precip. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing A Lack Of Intense Upward Motion Resulting In A Lack Of Heavy Precip. Image Credit: Accuweather

Another key difference between this storm and others this season will be that precip this time around will be a lot more on the steady side rather than extremely heavy. The GFS vertical velocity map above shows this well. Notice the lack of pinks/reds and the introduction of more gentle oranges. This translates to light to moderate precip rather than heavy precip.

precip type map
Expected Precipitation Type For This Storm

By tomorrow afternoon, the warm air will have made its farthest push inland with temps both above freezing both aloft and at the surface all the way into the foothills. During the heaviest rain, flooding could be an issue along the coast where rain and snowmelt could combine to cause some minor street flooding Saturday afternoon/evening. Any impacts from flooding should be minor but it is something to watch for especially along the coast.

12Z GFS Showing A Strong Upper Low That Will Help To Extend Snow Well Into Sunday. Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing A Strong Upper Low That Will Help To Extend Snow Well Into Sunday. Credit: Accuweather

The final phase of the storm will come Sunday as an upper low dives SE across the area. This will help to continue snow across the area on Sunday which is when coastal areas see most of their accumulations. Flakes will be flying as far south as SE MA but no accumulation is expected south of Boston.

12Z Canadian Model Showing Snow Lingering Into Sunday Afternoon. Map Valid 1 PM Sunday. Credit: Weatherbell
12Z Canadian Model Showing Snow Lingering Into Sunday Afternoon. Map Valid 1 PM Sunday. Credit: Weatherbell

Snow on Sunday will be lighter and more showery in nature but it will help to keep roads slick and flakes falling for most of another day.

snow map 3-13

Taking a look at accumulations, the highest totals will be in the mountains where the cold air will hang tough the whole way through. Amounts drop off towards the coast with Southern New England seeing no accumulation at all.

I’ll have another update in the morning.

-Jack

Another Toasty Day Before Winter Returns This Weekend

Leave a comment

Hello everyone!

Today will feature toasty temps (we’re starting off in the 30’s for most areas this morning) which will climb into the upper 30’s to low 40’s in the mountains and all the way to 50 degrees at the coast. NW winds will help to br driving the warm temps as downsloping occurs to the east/south of the mountains. A mix of sun and clouds is expected with some dense fog this morning over southern areas. A Dense Fog Advisory is out for York County due to that threat this morning.

Cooler temps arrive once another cold front moves through tonight and some accumulating snow looks likely for the weekend.

-Jack

Downsloping Brings Toasty Temps Today

3 Comments

Hello everyone!

Temps will soar especially along the coast today as winds turn to the NW and begin to downslope. Downsloping in turn causes sunny skies and warm temps so temps will be rising into the high 30’s/low 40’s region wide, including the mountains under increasingly sunny skies. A secondary cold front moves through this evening so this warm spell looks to be short-lived but more warm temps look to come back next week as the pattern begins to change.

-Jack

 

Snow Moves Out This Morning, Mountain Clouds/Coastal Sun Remains

1 Comment

Hello everyone!

Light snow is moving out this morning as our storm pulls away and we will be left with plentiful clouds for most of the morning hours. Expect snow showers to continue in the mountains through the afternoon where several inches of upslope snow can be expected in the favored areas. Temps in the mountains will be in the upper 20’s. Along the coast, morning clouds will give way to afternoon sun as temps rise into the mid-upper 30’s. Happy spring!

More snow/mixed precipitation should arrive late in the day tomorrow.

-Jack

Snow changing to rain today (update )

Leave a comment

Warm air will continue to push northward today and will have everyone over to rain with the exception of the north and mountains where cold air and snow will hang on for the remainder of the day. Even in the mountains, a change to freezing rain is expected dropping around .15-.3″ of ice. The whole storm clears out late this evening leaving a goregoues weekend for all.