Tag Archives: United States

Last update on Sandy as it moves through PA

This is my last analysis of Superstorm Sandy as it is now weakening at a steady clip and although it will continue to affect many along the interior Mid-Atlantic area, it is becoming less and less of a threat. Sandy should be done with us by Thursday and impacts from now on should be much less severe.

Sandy has caused damage in the 10’s of billions of dollars according to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground. This will really not do to much to help the economy and will likely set us back quite a bit. This could most definately affect the presidential election.

Sandy is now weakening over Central PA and will continue to spin north and weaken even more as it moves into Canada. Impacts will be wrapping up and the rainfall should slow down considerably as pressures rise and winds fall. We should be completely done with Sandy by Friday.

From now on, I will expirement with making a graphic every Wednesday evening and posting it here. This might work well or it might not. We will see. My first one will be tomorrow evening. Here is one for tonight.

 

 

Afternoon update: storm moving ashore now in NJ, Battery park; other low-lying areas brace for historic flooding

Now this is crunch time. The center of circulation is bearing down on the NJ coast and the winds are picking up here in Maine.

Rain is now moving into the Detroit area now and is continuing steadily in most of the mid-atlantic states.

Forecasts are now holding steady and true (see posts below) and so I will not elaborate too much here.

New update from NHC:
NW movement at 28mph
pressure 940mb
winds 90mph

Hunker down and stay safe!

-JAck

Climate forecast

Winter 2012-2013:

There will be a weak El Nino and a likely negative PDO. In more simple terms, an area of moderately warm waters off the coast off Peru (El Nino) and Cooler waters off the SW coast of Alaska(Negative PDO). So what does this mean for the US? It means that the eastern seaboard will see cooler temperatures so it will be a cooler than normal winter for the eastern third of the country. Also this set of conditions favors a pattern known as the Greenland block. This is when a ridge of high  pressure sits over Greenland and causes the jet stream (which is a “storm highway” and the divide between warm and cold) to dive south into the Eastern US. This ridging will vary from week to week this winter and will not be as strong as 2010-2011. The East will see Above-average precipitation (likely in the form of snow due to below average temperatures. In the Center of the country there will be the other counterpart to the Eastern trough, the high where the jet stream rises warm air and dry air into the nations heartland causing lower than average snow levels and worsening drought. In the Western US it should be a fairly average winter other than the fact that the Pacific storms will be more powerful and more frequent.

Stay tuned!

-Jack

Snow storm Thursday

A powerful winter storm is preparing to slam the region with heavy snow as well as some wind though the snow will really grab headlines. 8-12″ are expected in Cumberland and York Counties in ME and most of SW NH as well. 3-6″ in northern NH and in ME North to Augusta. 1-3″ in northern ME.

A powerful low will extend a warm front ahead of its move SE under a powerful high. This will bring a good steady snow and efficient accumulation. see other post for more in-depth analysis.

Stay tuned!

-JAck

Stormy friday

Friday will feature essentually a very stormy day. Rain at the immediate coast and snow in the mountains with mix in between.

Going in depth a little more… A low will intensify as it moves NE out of the Ohio valley and into New England Friday morning. Snow will overspread the region Thursday night and will stay snow across the entire forecast area untill ~8am. This is where the forecast becomes very tricky. The coast south of Portland will experiance the changeover first with rain overrunning that area and remaining locked in place as warm air pushes north. Meanwhile a secondary low undergoes cyclogenesis over Cape Cod. Depending on how strong this low gets, the warm air could stall or even retreat slightly.

         There are 3 dominant senarios for the secondary low development: 1) 2nd low deepens more rapidly and pulls in significant cold air therefore resulting in more significant coastal snows. 2) 2nd low fizzles and gets absorbed by intensifying main low therefore pulling in little to no cold air resulting in minimal coastal snows and hevier upslope snow. 3) 2nd low deepens at a marginal rate resulting in a moderate amount of cold air being pulled in and causing the warm air to be bottled up resulting in a sharp coastal front with a steep temperature difference. The exact placement of this front will likely determine the rain snow line if senerio 3 plays out

Stay tuned!

-JAck

Not as mild but still above average

Today a cold front moved through the area bringing in cooler temps for the week topping out wednesday in the mid to lower 30s for southern NH and southern ME 30s south into CT and 40s South to Philadelphia. 50s into VA and MD. Thursday will be similar and partly cloudy like wednesday. Friday will feature precipitation in northern NE but is a little early to go into details.

Stay tuned!

-Jack