Models coming into a little more of a consensus… Uncertainties still abound

As the storm draws closer, we see that mother nature will not waste even one day of her precious winter as I am tracking a late season winter storm that will blow into the region Monday night into Tuesday. There is currently a disturbance in the Ohio valley that will move NNE today. A low will develop over the Great Lakes and move north while a more robust coastal low will move right along the coastline. This low will draw cold air south from Canada helping to aid in snow totals. Models disagree on just how much QPF (Quantative Precipitation Forecast) or liquid will fall. The euro has 2″ of QPF or around 20″ of snow. I think this is a bit too high but just goes to show how much disagreement there is between the models. The GFS is in agreement with the NAM that a little over an inch of QPF will fall giving us about 12″ of snow. Now, this is if ALL the precip fell as snow on a 10:1 ratio. There are mixing concerns along the coast particularly south of Portland. So that could hold down totals there. Overall, over a foot is possible in the foothills and mountains where upslope flow will aid in snowfall. I will release a snow map either later today if the models do start to agree but a snow map is much more likely tomorrow at some point.

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