Hello everyone!

After an exceedingly long stretch of quiet weather (or weather that happened while I was away), we finally have something to talk about. While things look to be cool and quiet here at home, the tropics are waking up. We have 2 disturbances to look at, at least one of which is an invest (or area of highlighted interest) which means that there should be a wealth of information on it shortly. We’ll see if that comes out by the time I am done with this post (if not, I will post about it tomorrow).

This is the official NHC update regarding the Atlantic basin. The wave I am far more interested in is the first one marked in Yellow. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of developing in the next 5 days. I would put the odds slightly higher at 50%.

The models, in particular the GFS, have gone wild with this storm and my fear is these maps will get posted and shared without a proper explanation. I would say that for now this run of the GFS is an outlier. This system still has a long way to go before it can develop. With that said, conditions are very favorable for development along it’s potential tracks and it’s “shield” for defending against developmental hindrances like wind shear and dry air is already well established.

The red X marks the approximate center of the wave (just designated 96L) while the blue X marks the center of it’s “shield” or upper air anticyclone. If these 2 X’s are in the same location, one more requirement is checked off of 96L’s list for development.

One thing already going in favor of 96L is that SST’s (sea surface temperatures) are conducive for development all along it’s potential tracks. This is shown below along with 2 ideas on where it possibly could go.

The southern track is the one the GFS is pegged on and it seems reasonable due to a sprawling Bermuda High to the north. However, some models develop a weakness in the ridge that the storm could potentially exploit. This would allow for a more northerly course and possibly a recurve out to sea.

If 96L were to take a more southerly course, we potentially could see a strong storm develop in the Gulf of Mexico. You can see by looking at the chart above that SST’s are very warm in the Gulf so any future storm could very well intensify rapidly.

This chart shows particularly well the dangers posed by a southerly track. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is a measure of how much energy is in the water not only at the surface but all the way to the bottom.

Areas in white on the map are ‘rocket fuel’ for a storm IF there are no other factors preventing development. This water has not been properly fed on since 2008 when Gustav hit western Cuba after passing through the Western Caribbean. This chart also shows that a more northerly track (not marked) would result in a weaker storm as there is significantly less energy for it to absorb.

There is potential for impacts here at home as well. If the storm takes a more southerly track and makes landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast, we could see rains from the remnants. If it takes a track up the middle’ of several possible scenario’s, we could see more direct impacts as the storm passes close offshore. Even if the storm recurves harmlessly out to sea, we could still get to enjoy a nice swell (fingers crossed for that one!)

The only scenario we would not see impacts is if 96L does not develop at all. Keep in mind this is currently the most likely scenario.

Right now, it is very likely we see minimal development of this storm period. However, if this storm manages to develop it has some dangerous potential. A track into the Gulf of Mexico is not unlikely and if it does take that route, potentially disastrous results could follow. While this is not an imminent danger, I urge everyone to keep an eye on things as the situation evolves.

I do not want to spread panic here. There is a lot of uncertainty. A landfalling hurricane is very unlikely as of now. I just want to highlight some of the danger this storm has and I hope that people will keep an eye on things not panic.

I will have another post tomorrow at about the same time after the 2 PM update.

-Jack