96L slowly gaining organization, lacks defined center

Hello everyone!

Our Caribbean disturbance is still chugging along without much of a center though it looks like a center may be trying to form in the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The latest update from the NHC gives 96L a 70% chance of developing in 48 hours and 80% is 120 hours.

TWO 8-22-14

2PM TWO update from the NHC.

Despite the fact that it is still painfully disorganized, 96L has made one major improvement in the past 24 hours. We now have a sharp wind shift which is likely the beginning of a low level center (LLC) which means models should become more accurate now having a point to base their equations off of.

The Hurricane Hunters are out now investigating the system and their findings will be crucial. It seems as though there are 2 possible LLCs, one NE of the Dominican Republic and one S.

LLC

I have circled in Green the 2 possible LLCs. Which one dominates is anyone’s guess. As for myself, I think the northern area should make it out because the mountains of Hispaniola should rip the southern one to shreds.

As for track, things have only gotten more complicated. Models are divided into 3 groups, one wants to take it into Florida, one wants it to start to recurve but suddenly stop and bank left into the Mid Atlantic, and one just takes it out to sea.

spaggeti

Here is one model plot which shows, well, all the models. I have marked out the 3 possible tracks in separate colors with red representing a Floridian track, purple showing a possible left turn and blue a simple fish storm.

track ne

I am still leaning towards an out to sea (OTS) solution however, there is more and more uncertainty in my mind as things unfold. The least likely track is that into the Mid Atlantic though it is worth mentioning as a possibility.

I am still leaving intensity out because there is just too much we don’t know and I have no intention of causing hype or panic. If or when we have  TD or TS, I will start intensity forecasts.

Follow me on twitter for more updates through the evening @jacksillin.

-Jack