Clouds increase ahead of weekend storm

Hello everyone!

Apologies for the late update, there was an unusual amount of data that had to be looked at this morning to come up with the forecast. Today will feature increasing clouds ahead of the storm. Weak warm air advection may bring a sprinkle or flurry to the mountains later in the day but otherwise, no interruptions for trick-or-treaters. Temps this evening will be falling through the 40’s.

today 10-31

As for tomorrow, models are slowly coming into better agreement in terms of how the storm will play out. The GFS is the most excited about the storm idea with the JMA not far behind. The Euro is still pretty excited but not nearly as much as the GFS. The NAM remains completely uninterested.

Here’s how I think it will play out. Top-down saturation of the column will allow for some light snow after midnight for the mountains. Rain moves in Saturday a little before noon at the coast and spreads NW throughout the early afternoon in association with the first low. Rain becomes more showery in nature for a brief time Saturday evening before picking up again Saturday night. Once night falls, cold air will start to flood south as the storm intensifies so a gradual change to snow can be expected starting in the mountains and eventually making it all the way to the coast by Sunday morning. All precip moves out Sunday midmorning.

snow map 10-31

Here’s my thinking on accumulations. Even heftier totals will probably fall in Downeast Maine.

Winds will be another issue as they would be anytime a storm rapidly deepens off the coast. Wind gusts will be strongest across coastal areas with gusts reaching 50mph at times. Sustained winds will be much lower however likely not making it out of the 30mph range. Power outages could be a big problem especially if snow happens to be on the branches when the wind is strongest (Saturday night).

Much cooler air moves in for Sunday with highs even at the coast not making it to 40.

-Jack

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