Weekend storm farther west

Hello everyone!

Special update this evening on our developing storm.  I’ve been following its positions and comparing them to what the models were thinking and I’ve found that the storm’s actual position is decently further west than the models thought.

modelvsactual

Here are the model’s forecast positions vs what actually happened. Time stamp is 18Z.

With this in mind, I think it is not unreasonable to think that snow totals need to be rethought especially for western areas. If the developing storm can wrap enough moisture off the ocean to counteract the dry airmass to the NW, and still keep the boundary layer temps cool enough for snow, expect some surprises in terms of snowfall especially west of I-95. For now, I have gone on the safe side for snowfall amounts but don’t be surprised if slightly more falls as this is a very dynamic situation.

snow map 11-1

Snow map through Sunday. Don’t be surprised if amounts are a little bit higher especially Cumberland County and points west.

Winds will be another big factor with this storm as the low rapidly deepens offshore. Expect the highest winds to be over downeast Maine and coastal MA where gusts over 60mph are possible. This combined with the fact that any snow that falls and accumulates will be heavy and wet leads to concerns over power outages.

wind map 11-1

All in all, expect a wild night and a white morning. I’ll have another update on here when the sun comes up (or maybe a little after) but updates will continue on twitter @jacksillin.

-Jack

 

 

 

 

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