For the sake of timeliness (today’s forecast won’t be so helpful this afternoon when I’m done with the storm forecast), I will be posting two updates on the blog today. A full update on the storm and its impacts should be out in a few hours.
Radar image as of 7:45 AM
This morning’s radar shows widespread rain moving through the area this morning. The timing has shifted slightly, most of the activity is happening now as opposed to this afternoon but it’s wet morning out there nonetheless. Expect rain to be wrapping up midmorning but warm temps remain. Highs today will be in the 40’s north, 50’s south.
Tomorrow will be a warm and windy one with temps again in the 40’s and 50’s and a west wind. We have to wait until tomorrow night before high pressure builds in for temps to drop back down into the 20’s and 30’s. Sunnier skies should make a return as well when downsloping takes over in the afternoon.
I’ll have a full update on the storm including another video later on today.
No major changes in the forecast to today or tomorrow, we’re looking at a warm one today with highs in the 40’s to near 50 and mostly cloudy skies. Some breaks of sun are possible across southern areas as well especially this morning.
Monday’s forecast is still on track as well. Expect a windswept, mild rain for most of the day with the heaviest activity concentrated in the afternoon hours. A total of .5-1″ is expected. Winds will be an issue as well with gusts over 40 mph possible out of the south. With such strong southerly winds, parts of coastal RI as well as parts of Midcoast Maine could see some minor coastal flooding/splashover. Nothing major is expected but it is something to watch nonetheless.
0z GFS model IDEA regarding wind speeds. Forecast valid 1PM Monday, wind speeds in knots.
We clear out Tuesday and some slightly colder air arrives but nothing like we saw last week. Wednesday is when things get really tricky.
Yesterday, I posted a lengthy discussion using technical terms and model maps which I know may be over some people’s heads. Today, I will keep things simple here and record a video with the technical stuff.
Right now, I think that some sort of impacts are likely and the video talks about the reasoning behind that. Still lots of differences in the models regarding the exact track/intensity which will determine the p-type, accumulations (if any) and timing. For now, expect messy travel but don’t cancel any plans yet, still lots of uncertainty.
Cold air will move in after the storm leaves but we’ll have to wait until Saturday for a cold front to bring in the real Arctic air. No big warmups are in sight after tomorrow.
With relatively quiet weather this weekend, I would like to take a few moments to look ahead to the upcoming week. We have a few precip chances to examine over the next week. The first arrives tonight and will mainly affect the mountains with some light freezing rain tonight. This is a weak upper level disturbance and has nothing to do with our other storm threats.
Freezing rain advisories are up for the mountains as well as western NH. Details from the National Weather Service can be found here.
12z GFS Sounding For the Rumford Area Valid 7PM Tonight
While the thermal profiles for this event are by no means fantastic, the ingredients are there for a period of light freezing rain. Little to no accumulations are expected but some slick sidewalks/untreated roads are possible. While the bulk of the activity should stay in the mountains, some isolated rain showers are possible for coastal areas as well. All activity should be done by tomorrow morning.
Our next chance for precip will come Sunday night into Monday. SW winds already in progress across the area will intensify tomorrow and bring much warmer air into the region. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the 40’s with 30’s possible in the mountains of Maine and 50 possible on the Cape.
Clouds and showers move in tomorrow night with a windswept rain likely Monday. Expect gusts of up to 40 mph along the Cape with 30 mph along the Maine coast. Lighter winds are expected inland. Temps will skyrocket as warm air is blown in from the SW. Expect highs to make a run at 60 over NE CT and parts of interior SE MA. Temps in the 50’s for most of the rest of the area with the mountains of ME remaining stubborn in the 40’s.
12z GFS model IDEA on wind speeds in knots at 1PM Monday
Rain ends with the passage of the cold front Monday night into Tuesday. After that front hits, it’s back to the cold.
Wednesday is where things get really tricky. I will do my very best to keep things not too technical but some weather jargon will be thrown around in the next few paragraphs.
The setup: after our Monday storm leaves, the 500mb level is what will tell the tale in terms of if we get precip and if so, how much and of what type. Keep in mind that this storm is 4 days out right now so confidence is low but I want to emphasize that the threat is there and should be watched carefully. Below, I will follow the Canadian model from Monday night to Wednesday night. I have chosen the Canadian model to show here not because I like it particularly or think it is more accutate than all the others, but more because I think it shows well the variables at play. Remember, this is one model idea and things will change as time goes on.
12z CMC Model IDEA for 500mb height, vorticy, wind speed/direction on Monday at 7:00PM12z CMC Model IDEA for 500mb height, vorticy, wind speed/direction on Tuesday at 7:00PM12z CMC Model IDEA for 500mb height, vorticy, wind speed/direction on Wednesday at 7:00PM
These three images show the path of the energy at the 500mb level (about 30,000 feet). The other important factor to consider especially regarding track is the frontal boundary that passes through the region on Monday will stall offshore and eventually end up helping both form the storm and then eventually help guide it up the coast or out to sea.
12z CMC model IDEA of surface map and precip 7AM Wednesday morning
Bottom line is that while it is too far out to get into particular details/specifics, there are strong signals coming from the models as well as other variables like teleconnections (EPO looks to take a deep deep dive next week) and SST’s off the East Coast, which are rather warm compared to average right now and have a lot of energy stored up just waiting to be released.
After this storm threat, nothing stands out to me in terms of significant warm/cold/rain/snow. Lots on our hands this week though. I will be back tomorrow should any significant developments present themselves.
Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds across the region with sun taking over a larger share of the sky. Temps will be the coldest they’ve been all week (and all season) today with highs across the entire state of Maine unlikely to break freezing. Everyone else sees 30’s with the possible exception of the Cape and Islands who likely break 40. Winds will be gusty out of the NW today and will lead to ‘feels like’ temps in the teens to lower 20’s.
Looking ahead, we have a reasonably quiet weekend and start to the week to look forward to with some rain likely Monday but otherwise quiet and warm. Highs during this period (Sunday through Wednesday) will be unseasonably warm with highs in the 50’s to near 60. Sadly for warm lovers, all good things must come to an end and Thanksgiving looks to be the day that happens.
We have an interesting setup for Thanksgiving including a stalled frontal boundary, 500mb energy, and another cold shot lined up for just after Thanksgiving. I’ll get into more details this weekend, but if you read my blog carefully and follow me on Twitter, you’ll know if you have the ingredients I mentioned above, you have the potential for a storm. I’ll keep you updated throughout the week (updates may be a tad later next week due to my being on vacation) and as of now, the threat looks minimal. This is just something to keep in the back of your mind as you prepare for the long weekend.
Today will feature partly to mostly sunny skies, depending on location. The mountains and Cape Cod will see the most in the way of clouds with the standard upslope showers over the mountains and some rain showers possible on the cape as well. Downsloping off the mountains should keep everyone else dry and mostly sunny.
For those who dislike the cold, a warm up is in sight. Low pressure looks to develop over the midwest and rapidly intensify as it reaches the Great Lakes. This will allow for a warm S/SE flow ahead of the cold front and will allow for temps to rise near 60. More details in the coming days but one thing is for sure, it won’t last too long. All indications are that another large trough swings in for Turkey Day bringing back the cold.
Hello everyone!
Today will feel like winter for sure with temps rising barely to freezing along the coast and getting stuck in the 20’s inland. Winds from the west will make things feel even colder with wind chills this morning in the teens for most areas. Southern New England will see warmer temps as usual but not by much with highs, even there, reaching only the 30’s.
No one in New England has the right to complain though because some areas just south of Buffalo, NY have recorded 5 FEET, yes FEET, of snow and it is still snowing hard. As for our storm chances, Thanksgiving holds the greatest potential in the next 10 days although some snow showers/squalls could impact the region tomorrow.
Today will feature a dramatic cool off as last night’s cold front moves off to the east. High temps for the calendar day can be predicted with 100% accuracy since they happened at 12:01am. Even during peak heating today, temps will continue to drop. Looking at current observations across the area, temps are in the 30’s for most except for RI and eastern MA. Temps will fall through the 40’s there then fall through the 30’s and so on until we reach our low temp for the day at about 11:59 pm.
In terms of cloud cover today, expect general clearing west to east except for the mountains, especially in NH, due to lake effect moisture being squeezed out over 4-5,000 foot peaks. Leftover mid-level moisture will struggle to leave the region in part due to the lake effect so expect some mid-level clouds to be hanging about at least through early afternoon. Clearing is expected to be complete by later on tonight, after the sun goes down.
A couple other things to watch out for this morning, winds and black ice. Winds today will be gusting near 40mph at times today as we source our winds so to speak from about 6,000 feet. The other thing to be careful of this morning will be black ice. We had quite a bit of rain yesterday and with temps below freezing for everyone but the cape and RI, all the puddles, wet spots etc. from yesterday will not be frozen into ice. be extra careful as you step out the door this morning and allow a little more time for your commute.
Lots to talk about this morning as low pressure works its way through the region. Expect a rainy day across coastal areas with a brief period of snow right about now. No snow accumulations are likely at the coast although 1-2″ of rain is expected along with winds gusting over 30mph. Anywhere south of Kittery Maine with the exception of the Berkshires sees all rain and parts of SE MA could see over 2″ of rain. A rumble of thunder is possible on the Cape with wind gusts near 60mph.
Inland areas are where things get trickier. Cold air is firmly in place as we saw with yesterday’s cold temps and light north winds at the surface will cause even more cold air to drain southward. Overhead, this pattern doesn’t exist. Warm air is free to surge into the region a few thousand feet above our heads and turn the snow over to sleet, freezing rain, and then eventually rain. Snow accumulations of 1-3″ are likely before things start changing around.
For the Mountains, a good period of snow is expected this morning before warm air infiltrates this area. Expect 3-6″ of snow this morning before changing over to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain. After the cold front moves through tonight, expect much colder air to arrive along with upslope snow showers.
30’s and snow and 60’s and thunderstorms within a hundred and fifty miles of each other. Only in New England.
Today will feature some morning snow as a low pressure system moves well offshore which has already accumulated in some areas especially near the coast. This will be a wet snow as temps are around freezing and will also be light. As of 5:00 AM, our house in Yarmouth had 2″ on the grass, 0.5″ on the brick walkway, and 0″ on the pavement. Overall, this will not be a high impact storm, just enough to put a little white on the ground. Snow is already winding down across western areas. Expect all snow to clear the coast by 8:30 AM.
While everyone starts the day with clouds and/or precip, everyone also sees some sun by the day’s end which should help to melt most of the snow by sundown. The next chance we will have for significant precip will arrive Monday. I will have the privilege of taking over the Western Maine Weather evening post tonight so that’s where the latest information will be in the evening hours.
Today will feature mainly clear skies with noticeably cooler temps as the cold front that brought yesterday’s drizzle and fog moves well offshore. Behind the front today, we will see partly cloudy skies along with cooler temps, highs will not get above 40 in some of the high terrain as well as northern areas. Some more clouds move in this afternoon ahead of our next system.
Tomorrow’s snow event doesn’t look significant but it will come at an inconvenient time, the morning commute. I expect a dusting to 2″ with the highest amounts falling in southern coastal areas, closer to the storm center. This will be a fast moving storm so expect any precip to wrap up by early afternoon. More details on that tomorrow morning (maybe tonight, depending on how midday models turn out).
Forecasterjack 