Today will feature frigid conditions area-wide with current readings as of 5 AM ranging from 32 on Nantucket to -15 near Moosehead lake. Temps will warm up today and especially tonight as warm air advection becomes stronger. Ocean effect snows are likely over coastal Maine and New Hampshire however accumulations should be minimal. Highs today will be very chilly as well ranging from the 10’s north to 30’s south.
Overall, clear skies are expected in the morning with clouds overspreading the region as the day goes on.
All in all, the storm forecast looks pretty good. This looks to be the type of situation where a degree or two and only a handful of miles makes the difference between 12″ and 2. This battleground looks to set up over the northern foothills tomorrow with the mountains seeing snow/sleet/ice and the southern foothills/coast seeing rain.
However, before that, early on Tuesday morning, it looks like everyone sees a period of light snow, sleet, or freezing rain with snow to freezing rain being the favored scenario for the coast Tuesday morning. After 9 or 10 AM, the coast looks to go to all rain and the switch could happen before then.
It is important to note, however, that we have deep cold air in place as this storm approaches so it may be hard for the warm air to scour out all the low level cold. This is the reason that freezing rain may be a widespread problem Tuesday morning. Combine this with a little snow and sleet from earlier in the morning, and you have a very slippery AM commute for all of Maine and the northern half of NH.
Any precip before 1PM or so Tuesday will be on the lighter side so no significant accumulations are expected despite the timing making for a slick AM commute. Heavier precip moves in the afternoon by which time the coast will be warm enough for all rain.
By midday Tuesday, we have the storm in full force with winds gusting over 50mph at the coast accompanied by driving rain and a heavy, wet snowstorm over the mountains. Expect the peak of the storm to arrive Tuesday evening and heavy precip will linger into Wednesday Morning.
Even as the surface system weakens and precip associated with it moves out, we are still stuck with the upper low. The upper low looks to meander near Cape Cod or maybe a bit farther north for several days which means that wrap around moisture combined with lift associated with the UL would bring continued precip, both liquid and frozen, to the area through Thursday.
Beyond that, the forecast really depends on how fast the UL gets out of here. The Euro has it hanging around through the weekend with another storm Saturday while the GFS shoots it out into the ocean Thursday bringing clear conditions for the weekend.
I’ll have another update this evening.