Weekend Storm Looking Wet, Warm, And Windy

Hello everyone!

Not much weather to talk about today – it will be clear and bitter cold as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs will be generally in the 10’s with some 20’s at the coast.

Our more interesting weather arrives tomorrow evening as low pressure moves in from the west. THe low will redevelop offshore but instead of moving NE and bringing us a snowstorm, it will move due north right through Western Maine this bringing warm and wet conditions… for most.

low track 1-17

Here is where I expect the low pressure system to track. Since the winds around a low pressure system spin counter-clockwise, warm air will have no problem spilling into the area Sunday afternoon. Everyone but the far northern mountains and the White mountains will see rain Sunday afternoon/evening.

As the low strengthens and moves north/northeast early Monday morning, cold air aloft will make its way to the surface through a process known in technical terms as dynamic cooling. Basically, this is when cold air aloft gets dragged down to the surface via heavy precip. One very good way to pinpoint where this will happen is to look at upward motion in the atmosphere.

gfs verti velo

Even though most areas see some rain Sunday evening, it will flip to snow from west to east Sunday night and will become very heavy which means even though surface temps will be marginal (30-35), the mountains should have no problem accumulating if/when they change to snow. Farther south, the rain will be heavy but the cold air aloft will be lacking so most places south of route 2 will miss out on the snow. The exception to that will be the Whites who will stay mostly snow the whole way through as they stick up above the warm layer.

I’ll have another update with the latest data this evening.

-Jack

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