Today’s forecast does not appear to be that much different from yesterday’s though there are a few important differences. Looking at satellite/radar imagery as well as this morning’s surface analysis, it appears as though there is a cold front off to our west, currently over the Great Lakes and a warm front that enters the coast near the NH/MA border and then extends north and west through NH towards Hanover before becoming less defined into NY and then Quebec.
There have been a few showers associated with this front, one cluster has already accomplished most of its weakening and is moving through the downeast islands while the other is just crossing the border into northern Somerset county and is also on a weakening trend. While I don’t anticipate too much trouble as this front shifts north, areas north and east of Portland could see a shower or sprinkle later this morning as some daytime heating gets going.
For most areas this morning, the dominant weather feature will not be the warm front but instead a broad area of sinking air over most of southern/eastern New England. This feature will bring mainly sunny skies to start the day which will allow for temps to once again rise sharply into the upper 80’s/low 90’s, with humidity of course.
The cold front over the Great Lakes will begin its approach towards the region today and by nightfall will likely be in the vicinity of VT. Unlike yesterday, I will (hopefully) not be making the mistake of over-predicting thunderstorm development today. I do think however that everyone has the slight chance for a shower or storm today in a similar format of yesterday’s storms. I’m sure folks west of Concord NH wouldn’t say yesterday’s forecast was a bust. Most towns however do look to stay dry today but do keep an eye to the sky because the risk of getting wet is there.
For the mountains and NH, the front does indeed look to get close enough this evening to provide enough forcing for storms to get off the ground. I’d be looking for storms to begin moving into the area in the vicinity of 4PM and continuing SE from there. Storms will be weakening so severe weather is not anticipated but the mountains should watch out for a few gusty winds in any of the stronger storms that make it this far. Heavy rain will be the threat region wide with any storms that do form.
Mountain storms will be weakening through the evening as daytime heating is lost but are likely to follow the front SE overnight so everyone is likely to get a chance at a late night shower all the way down to the coast before the front moves offshore.
Looking ahead to the end of the week, the front that moves through tonight looks to stall offshore and then a weak but moisture laden storm appears to move along it bringing a heavy rain threat for Thursday evening into Friday. More details to come in later updates.