Hello everyone!

Special update tonight to cover what is shaping up to be an extraordinary rainfall event for Maine and New Hampshire. Will this be historic? Unlikely. WIll it be devastating? Probably not. Will it be a big headache? Absolutely. Let’s dive right in.

Current radar shows a broad area of heavy rain over the Mid Atlantic associated with developing low pressure and another batch of rain along and ahead of a cold front sagging south. Rain is already moving through western ME and NH and is rather heavy in spots and this will continue through the evening increasing in coverage and intensity.The threat of heavy rain has begun.

The low currently over the Mid Atlantic will move NE along the front and end up in the Gulf of Maine tomorrow. The above image shows the position of the low at 2PM tomorrow afternoon and precip totals from 8AM to 2PM. While I think this model is a bit overdone with its 3-4″ in 6 hours idea, it goes to show a larger idea of very heavy rain in the morning and early afternoon tomorrow. Flash flooding is definitely a threat with this torrential type of rain so be prepared for that threat on the AM commute tomorrow.

Total rainfall looks to be in the 2-4″ range for most with isolated 3-6″ amounts where the most intense storms pop up. The greatest likelihood for something like this to happen is south of route 2 closer to the low and the front.

The front briefly moves offshore Thursday for a period of nice(ish) weather as the sun could make an appearance but NE winds will likely be gusty so it will still feel a tad raw.

Looking ahead towards the weekend, the front appears to move back north which would likely provide focus for another round of rain Friday into Saturday at which point things get very interesting with Tropical Storm Joaquin. At this point in time it looks like the bulk of the impacts stay to our south as an upper level low pulls it into the Mid Atlantic though this is still far out and, as usual, can and will likely change. I’ll have more updates on that in the coming days.

Regardless of Joaquin’s involvement in the latter part of the forecast, the next 24 hours is shaping up to be a wet one so that’s where our attention will be focused for now.

I’ll have another update in the morning.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies with some scattered showers from time to time. While it won’t be a washout, keep the umbrella handy as a tropical airmass moves in creating the potential for heavy rain in any showers that do form. Humidity will be nearly unheard of for late September with dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60’s. Temps will be warm as well with highs ranging through the 70’s with some upper 60’s possible at the coast and up north.

Shown here is the HRRR courtesy of Weatherbell showing one idea as to how scattered showers could play out today.

Tonight and into tomorrow we get a total deluge as tropical air is pushed up and over a front that will be draped across the area. The precise location of the front will dictate exactly who sees the highest totals but a widespread 2-4″ is likely with locally higher amounts to 5 or even 6″ possible under any convective elements that develop and train. Lower amounts of 1-3″ are likely along the international border. You may have heard of tropical storm Joaquin moving north this weekend, I’m watching it carefully but am focusing on tonight and tomorrow’s rain threat now. Keep in mind, the 2-4″ with locally higher amounts is through Thursday and doesn’t at all include this weekend’s rain which I will have more details on later in the week. With this much rain, flooding is definitely a concern and flood watches are up for everyone except far northern areas.

Be sure to stay updated on this event and take appropriate actions for heavy rainfall. I’ll have another update tomorrow morning at the latest and if conditions warrant, tonight. Stay tuned to the NWS and local media for more info.

-Jack