Today will feature mainly cloudy skies with some scattered showers from time to time. While it won’t be a washout, keep the umbrella handy as a tropical airmass moves in creating the potential for heavy rain in any showers that do form. Humidity will be nearly unheard of for late September with dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60’s. Temps will be warm as well with highs ranging through the 70’s with some upper 60’s possible at the coast and up north.
Shown here is the HRRR courtesy of Weatherbell showing one idea as to how scattered showers could play out today.
Tonight and into tomorrow we get a total deluge as tropical air is pushed up and over a front that will be draped across the area. The precise location of the front will dictate exactly who sees the highest totals but a widespread 2-4″ is likely with locally higher amounts to 5 or even 6″ possible under any convective elements that develop and train. Lower amounts of 1-3″ are likely along the international border. You may have heard of tropical storm Joaquin moving north this weekend, I’m watching it carefully but am focusing on tonight and tomorrow’s rain threat now. Keep in mind, the 2-4″ with locally higher amounts is through Thursday and doesn’t at all include this weekend’s rain which I will have more details on later in the week. With this much rain, flooding is definitely a concern and flood watches are up for everyone except far northern areas.
Be sure to stay updated on this event and take appropriate actions for heavy rainfall. I’ll have another update tomorrow morning at the latest and if conditions warrant, tonight. Stay tuned to the NWS and local media for more info.