Torrential Rain And Flash Flood Threat Today, Watching Joaquin Very Closely

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the passage of low pressure along a stalled front which means very, very heavy rains for pretty much the whole area. Humidity will continue to be very high and temps will be mainly in the 60’s.

5:45 AM Radar. Map Credit: COD, Additions By Me.
5:45 AM Radar. Map Credit: COD, Additions By Me.

As of 5:45 this morning, we have a surface low over the PA/NJ/NY border with lots and lots of heavy rain out ahead of it. Bands of heavy showers are moving off the ocean ahead of the main bout of precip which will enhance totals along the coast. Heavy rain will continue to move through and impact the area through early afternoon. Flash flooding is a real threat with this storm and the potential for 1-2″ per hour rain rates has been highlighted by the WPC in a MD this morning (that’s extra credit reading if you wish and will make my nerdiest discussion look like a kindergarten textbook). What you need to know is that it will rain hard today, for most of the day. The original forecast of 2-4″ widespread with some 3-6″ looks alright though totals may be towards the lower part of that especially up north.

Looking ahead towards Joaquin, if the current solution portrayed by many models pans out, this is a really serious situation for the Mid Atlantic. The upper level pattern favors a track into the coast however that could change. For Northern New England, we are, as usual, much more interested in the remnants which could bring another few inches of rain to our area early next week. I’ll have more updates on that later in the week as the forecast becomes more clear.

-Jack

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