A Quiet Few Days Leads Up To An Active Week Next Week

Hello everyone!

As yesterday’s storm is now long gone, we are now settling into a quieter pattern in the immediate future. I’ll look at our quiet pattern with a few chances for precip and then I’ll outline the beginning of what could be an active pattern starting next week. Let’s start with these next few days.

Zonal Flow: Late Week Into The Weekend

12Z GFS Showing The Pattern Early Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing The Pattern Early Week. Image Credit: Accuweather

The rest of this week and into the weekend will feature flat, zonal flow aloft. You can see this in the image at left which shows westerly winds and lines of equal height (isopleths) more or less going from west to east. This type of pattern supports temps near or slightly above average and also keeps any storms weak. Two weak storms look to impact the area in the next five days, one Friday into Saturday and the other Sunday into Monday. They will be weak and will feature a mix of rain and snow depending on surface temps. Tomorrow will be a lot like today except maybe a tad cooler. Friday will feature increasing clouds and light snow in the afternoon while Saturday sees light rain/snow showers moving out. Sunday will see more clouds while snow arrives Sunday night and lasts into Monday morning. Amounts look light for both events. Sunday’s storm will set up a far different pattern aloft by early next week.

Meridional Flow: Next Week

12Z GFS Showing A Far Different Pattern Aloft Early Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing A Far Different Pattern Aloft Early Week. Image Credit: Accuweather

This is the same map as the one shown above but valid early next week as opposed to late this week. Notice the change in the winds and isopleths as well as the strength of the disturbances. This is the type of pattern needed for storms. Notice all the disturbances zooming around the eastern US. I’ve highlighted the strongest ones in blue. To actually get a big snowstorm, we need each of those disturbances in just the right place at just the right time. This pattern looks to continue trough next week with multiple threats for storms as different sets of disturbances attempt to consolidate into a larger storm. Is it possible that any one of those sets of disturbances does consolidate into a large storm that brings us significant snow? Absolutely. Is it likely? At this point, the odds are stacked against it as they almost always are this far out. The stage is set for a snowstorm but we need all the actors in the right place at the right time doing the right things for a good show.

More updates as we get closer to these events.

-Jack

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