A Progressively More Active Week

Hello everyone!

Our pattern slowly becomes more active over the coming week beginning with light snow tonight and ending with what could be a large storm next week. We still have three storm threats but I don’t think Northern New England gets much of anything with the Monday storm threat I talked about a couple of nights ago. However, that storm still plays an important part in the lead up to what has the potential to be a large storm next week. For now, let’s look at tonight and the storm expected to drop light snow in the next 12-18 hours.

Radar/Surface Obs Composite From ~5:00PM This Evening. Image Credit: COD
Radar/Surface Obs Composite From ~5:00PM This Evening. Image Credit: COD

Light precip is falling over NY currently and this will move east into our area tonight. The low pressure responsible is tracking to the north and thus is dragging warm air up into the region on southerly winds. This will be enough to result in a wet snow for the mountains and foothills and wet snow mixing with rain along the coast. Snow will fall predominantly tonight into tomorrow morning and will be largely in the form of snow showers with on and off precip. Little accumulation is expected and my original thinking of 2-4″ for the mountains, 1-3″ for the foothills, and a coating-2″ for the coast/coastal plain looks good. Warmer air will flood into the region behind this storm on westerly winds setting up spring like temps this weekend. Highs tomorrow will be in the 30’s and 40’s following precip clearing out in the morning. Highs Sunday will get close to 50 in the south with 40’s for most.

18Z NAM Showing The Setup Monday As Cold Air Builds. Image Credit: Accuweather
18Z NAM Showing The Setup Monday As Cold Air Builds. Image Credit: Accuweather

A cold front sweeps the warmth offshore Sunday night and low pressure develops along the front Monday. This will remain largely to our south though more clouds are likely for all with a flurry possible in the south. The big impact though will be the cold building in with a fresh Canadian airmass sweeping SE. By the time Tuesday rolls around, we will have a stalwart 1030mb+ high that won’t be in a hurry to move. This sets up our midweek storm threat.

12Z GFS Showing The Complex Storm Threat Midweek. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing The Complex Storm Threat Midweek. Image Credit: Accuweather

By the time next week arrives, a large and fairly deep trough will be carved out across the east with a ridge in the west. Tons of disturbances will be zooming around the east and the exact track of the storm(s) will depend on the exact strength/placement of each and every one of the disturbances I circled in blue (along with others not visible in this image). This is why this forecast is so darn complicated. Despite that, I think we can begin to make some sort of sense out of at least the basics. It is far too early to talk precip type or exact timing but I think the storm works in two parts. The first arrives at some point Tuesday or Wednesday and remains moderate or weak in strength. It looks to deliver moderate to light precip of some sort depending on the track. Remember, we have fresh cold in place so my inclination would be to lean towards less, colder precip as the low slides south. The second part of the storm arrives later in the week, Wednesday into Thursday and is much stronger.  It could deliver much more precip depending on the track. Of what nature the precip is and exactly when it comes and goes is anyone’s guess at this point but the takeaway is that it could be much stronger.

All in all, a more active pattern is shaping up for our area heading into next week. While the exact details are TBD, it does look like we have a good chance at seeing significant precip. Could it be mainly rain? Sure. Could it go out to sea? Possibly. Could it deliver significant frozen precip? Absolutely it could. Stay informed with the latest forecasts through your favorite source (NWS, local media, people like me) and remember that this is still very far away. Don’t panic, stay informed.

-Jack

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