Our storm this upcoming week is still on track but just because we’re getting closer to the event doesn’t mean we’re all that much closer to deciphering what will happen. The trend in guidance over the past 24 hours has been towards a warmer solution with brief snow quickly going over to rain. While this remains very much a viable solution, I’m not ready to bite just yet. I want to wait for a few more rounds of guidance with better sampling of the disturbances that will eventually form the storm before I pull the trigger on a rainy solution. Due to that, my thoughts haven’t changed much. A cold front will move through tomorrow night and colder air will follow for Monday. Low pressure will then move NE from the Gulf of Mexico. Its exact track will determine what falls from the sky. We should have a better idea Monday afternoon as the disturbances that will form the storm begin to join together over Texas.
Here are the GFS ensembles for the storm. While there is still a large spread in ideas as to where the storm will track, guidance is converging on an inland track. Notice the lack of a large high to the NE to feed cold air into the region. Our cold high from Monday has already been swept off to the Azores which leaves warm air free to flood northward. While I’m still not completely convinced, this is the solution I’m leaning towards based on the pattern and what I’m seeing in terms of guidance.
Following this storm, colder air moves in for the weekend and we have another shot at snow around that time as well.