Episode Two Of Winter’s Last Stand Thursday Into Friday

Hello everyone!

Our storm from this morning is now racing NE and most of the area is seeing sunny skies . Coastal areas saw 4-8″ while inland areas saw 2-4″. The forecast worked out great for the Midcoast but busted fairly badly west of Brunswick. The culprit was a westward shift in mid level (5,00-10,000 feet up) storm systems. I’ll try to get a full post out at some point explaining that.

12Z GEM Showing The Setup For A Storm Late Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GEM Showing The Setup For A Storm Late Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell

In the meantime, we have more winter to look forward to! Following nice weather tomorrow, a weak clipper will drive a backdoor cold front through the region Wednesday. Behind it, cold Canadian high pressure will settle in for Thursday which sets up episode 2 of winter’s last stand. A low pressure system will move along or a little north of this front drawing warm air north as it goes. We’ve seen this a million times before, when warm air crashes into cold air, trouble ensues and this time is no different. Precip likely breaks out Thursday afternoon/evening and lasts through Friday midday.

12Z CMC Showing A Setup Ripe For Mixed Precip Overnight Thursday Into Friday. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GEM Showing A Setup Ripe For Mixed Precip Overnight Thursday Into Friday. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Cold high pressure to the north will play a big part in this forecast. One of the things you learn in forecasting, especially forecasting in Maine, is never to bet against Canadian high pressure. Cold air at the surface always lasts longer than you think, even if you think it will last longer than you think. Guidance is still split on exactly how this storm pans out. It is still 3-4 days away as well which means that there is more than enough time for the forecast to change. However, looking at the overall pattern, the solution the 12Z GEM (shown in maps given here) portrays is one I could absolutely see happening.

While the details of how much precip/precip type/exact timing/etc are still to be worked out, it looks like we’re in for another shot of wintry weather to close out the week. The greatest threat for this one is in the mountains and ski areas could very well see some snow out of this one in addition to any mixed precip warm air aloft could cause.

More on this in the coming days as the details come into focus.

-Jack

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